Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)

[Kirk]

Four week moving average on Investors Intelligence is 70.70% as bulls as a percentage of bulls plus bears --- this is very frothy and I don't recall such an event even in bull markets. I agree -- vix and vxn are bottoming. Vxn had bullish formation on daily yesterday and it is green as I write fwiw.

At the top of 2000 bulls over bulls plus bears was 56.9
On 1/14/77 it was 94.6
2/21/75 79.1
8/14/87 76.25 (very good time to put money in the market)

Data Source
http://www.suite101.com/discussion.cfm/investing/6028/797-806#message_10

Here is a chart back to 1988
http://www.suite101.com/discussion.cfm/investing/6028/807-816#message_10
Periods of very high II sentiment were OFTEN followed with higher markets.

I do NOT believe VIX and VXN are good indicators of sentiment nor is mutual fund cash percentages. The ratio of bond to equity mutual fund cash flow IS a good indicator of sentiment as it measures what investors are doing, not what newsletter writers are telling them to do.

May fund flows for the week ended 5/14/03: http://www.suite101.com/discussion.cfm/investing/55973/754-763#message_10
Equity funds +67M
Taxable Bond Funds +1,700M

The Put/Call ratio is a pretty good indicator IMHO also.