Innovation Pharmaceuticals Inc (IPIX)

[I Need Help]

Vlady 1, most us daywatchers of CTIX have the same curiosities and concerns:

...just curious/ little worried about how high / how long will we go on "expectations of news" versus the actual real thing. ..

Less of a concern for the truly long term oriented and more of a curiosity.

Some of my thoughts:

1) Historically; whenever, CTIX has been on similar breakouts, the catalyst was evident before the pull back. Whether it was a convention/show, or significant positive news. Sometimes there was a sell off on the news, other times the run would continue for awhile past.

2) At some point there will be a significant pullback. Could be temporary, leading to another rally, or could be more time consuming. Tricky, when to sell and trade.

3) Just before the pullback there is almost always a parabolic and unsustainable rise. Most often this occurs intraday and will only be tradable when actually being observed. Of course, one can look for this as a sell signal for the upcoming days (few or many). When observing candlesticks, look for long wicks at the top of a candle at the tops of runs. Often times there will be a pullback and then another move to the top of the previous high wick. This should be a resistance level.

4) We like to think we retailers are movers and drivers of our stocks, but most times it is the Smart Money that will decide. I am convinced that Smart Money is behind the current move, and I think the number of players involved is limited (maybe only one), at this time.

5) Smart Money is usually strategic. They have a goal and purpose. They like to keep their objectives to themselves and their affiliates, until it is advantageous to do otherwise. They want to be the first into the party and the first out. They usually are moving fairly large sums, so they are not agile. They do not want to see liquidity dry up before they have made most of their move. Sometimes their moves are disjointed, striking one day, disappearing, and reappearing. This is why there are often down days, even in a strong breakout.

5A) I think it likely our smart money has been working on their position for some time. One good example was on 8/7, when about 300,000 shares quickly traded at the Ask -- this at a time when average daily trading was well below 100,000 shares for an entire day. Eleven days have passed from then till today. Not unusual, and often longer intervals occur. When looking at a rally, check the chart for unusual heavy volume days in the preceding weeks or months.

6) As the price moves higher, there will be more incentive for sellers, and volume will be necessary to continue the advance. The company or others wishing to sell large blocks for capital will find the higher than normal liquidity appealing. There will be some sellers that held out from prior failed rallies and current profit takers. Each time the stock gets to a new high, new sellers will emerge. There will be some significant resistance levels. If, when, the rally fails it is likely to occur at a significant resistance level. Other factors will determine the significant resistance levels, but round numbers, previous highs, repeating numbers over the span of time, are some of the biggies.

6A) In the closing hours of trade today (and throughout the day) there were signs of large block selling. Aspire? CTIX diluting? Not sure???

7) Volume is a telling indicator. There will be spikes and falls; but during the rally, volume should continue to be above normal. Volume will be necessary to absorb increased supply from the previously listed likely sellers.

Probably the easiest 20% of profits have been made. Exception being if there is really a significant story driving this breakout. We still have no clarity on the catalyst for this rally. But, from past experience, I think there is much more upside to come. The top may not come as expected. There could be retracements and then new runs. There are likely to be some off days. Maybe it is part of the plan for Smart Money to shake shares free from loose hands??? At this time, only Smart Money knows.

With the R & R show coming up, there could be a connection. I remember seeing similar runs in past years (lasting weeks but uneven).

Interesting as I remember: I made two posts on this board. One indicating an odd change in pattern trading when CTIX failed to rally on a good news story (at a high over a year ago), and one indicating a slight rally on a good news story (a few months ago and near a low). No doubt the charts have been subtly positive for the past few months. Higher lows and higher highs.

From a long term perspective, I think most regulars on this board are disappointed with a share price below $2, hell even $20. So, if this rally peters out at such a low dollar amount, and the long term view is correct, this is just a positive phase in an upcoming string of positives.