$GILD - 7/24 reports from 12 analysts - Goldman, Credit Swisse, Wells, RBC, BMO, JPM, Nomura, Citi, UBS, Jefferies (no numbers), Deutsche Bank (limited numbers), and Morgan Stanley - 4/23 numbers in () - summary stats may come in later post:
Goldman
Sovaldi sales: '14-12.4B(10.4B); '15-13.2B(10.9B); '16-11.3B(10.1B); '17-11.0B(10.7B)
Earnings: '14-$7.90/sh($6.25/sh); '15-$8.72/sh($6.36/sh); '16-$8.28/sh($6.61/sh); '17-$8.71/sh($7.40/sh)
Credit Swisse
HCV franchise sales: '14-11.6B(9.1B); '15-12.1B(9.7B); '16-13.9B(12.6B); '17-13.5B(13.2B); '18-13.0B(12.0B); '19-11.5B(10.65B); '20-10.1B(9.4B)
Earnings: '14-$7.81/sh($6.52/sh); '15-$7.61/sh($6.56/sh); '16-$8.48/sh($7.85/sh); '17-$8.68/sh($8.51/sh); '18-$7.40/sh($6.80/sh); '19-$6.87/sh($6.32/sh); '20-$6.34/sh($5.89/sh)
Wells Fargo
HCV regimens: '14-12.4B(9.4B); '15-13.9B(11.7B); '16-14.6B(12.6B); '17-15.7B(12.7B); '18-15.8B(13.9B): '19-15.0B
Earnings; '14-$8.04/sh($6.55/sh); '15-$9.04/sh($7.57/sh); '16-$10.25/sh($8.67/sh); '17-$11.56/sh($9.78/sh); '18-$11.30/sh($9.38); '19-$10.83/sh
RBC
HCV: '14-12.1B/(9.5B); '15-14.0B(11.5B); '16-11.0B(9.9B)
Earnings: '14-$7.80/sh($6.15/sh); '15-$8.50/sh($7.00/sh); '16-$7.58/sh($7.18/sh)
BMO
HCV: '14-12.415B(8.075B); '15-14.414B(8.819B); '16-14.739B(9.854B); '17-14.634B(10.662B); '18-15.665B(11.579B); '19-16.995B(12.579B); '20-18.461B(13.702B )
Earnings: '14-$7.65/sh($5.98/sh); '15-$8.38/sh($6.25/sh); '16-$8.94/sh($7.00/sh); '17-$9.55/sh($7.77/sh); '18-$10.09/sh($8.35/sh); '19-$10.99/sh($9.08/sh); '20-$11.96/sh($9.87/sh)
JP Morgan
Sovaldi: '14-11.4427B/(8.336B); '15-11.849B(9.488B); '16 - 12.100B(10.724BB
Earnings: '14-$7.45/sh($5.61/sh); '15-$8.35/sh($6.52/sh); '16-$9.05/sh($7.54/sh)
Nomura
Hep C: '14-12.575B(9.092B); '15-16.616B(12.599B); '16-19.951B(15.131B); '17-22.232B(15.736B); '18-21.735B(15.830B); '19-19.132B/(15.037B); '20-16.933B/(14.453B)
Earnings: '14-$8.03/sh($5.01/sh); '15-$9.70/sh($7.24/sh); '16-$11.50/sh($8.92/sh); '17-$12.90/sh($9.83/sh); '18-$13.20/sh($10.45/sh); '19-12.16/sh($10.25/sh); '20-$11.27/sh($10.15/sh)
Citi
Sovaldi; '14-12.997B($9.4B); '15-13.656B; '16-14.080B; '17-13.344B; '18-14.551; '19-11.520B; '20-9.031
Earnings: '14-$8.30/sh($6.29/sh); '15-$9.27/sh($7.71/sh); '16-$9.80/sh; '17-$10.23/sh; '18-$11.07/sh; '19-$9.52/sh; '20-$8.98
UBS
HCV: '14-$12.4B(8.478B); '15 - 11.211B; '16 - 13.721B - no change WRONG
Earnings - '14-$8.28/sh($6.26/sh); '15-$9.71/sh($7.90/sh); '16-$10.97/sh($9.58/sh); '17-$12.25/sh($11.14/sh); '18-$12.49/sh($11.57/sh)
Jefferies - no new estimates
(HCV: '14 - 9.548B; '15 - 12.282B; '16 - 17.174; '17 - 17.855
Earnings; '14 - $6.04/sh; '15 - $7.69/sh; '16 - $11.19/sh; '17 - $12.07)
Deutsche Bank - limited new numbers
Sov: '14-11.7B(10.638B); ('15 - 14.596B; '16 - 16.599B; '17 - 17.528B; '18 - 15.720B; '19 - 14.787B; '20 - 14.822; '21 - 14.825; '22 - 14.506B; '23 - 13.702B; '24 - 13.702B; '25 - 12.275B; '26 - 12.850B; '27 - 12.415B)
Earnings: '14-$7.4/sh($6.65/sh); '15-$.78($9.76/sh); ('16 - $11.74/sh; '17 - $13.27/sh; '18 - $13.12/sh; '19 - $12.99/sh; '20 - $13.92/sh; '21 - $14.34/sh; '22 - $14.28/sh; '23 - $13.81/sh; '24 - $14.04/sh; '25 - $14.42; '26 - $14.08/sh; '27 - $15.04)
Morgan Stanley
Sov -'14-12.894B; '15-14.073B; '16-13.649B; '17-10.045B; '18-8.471B; '19-7.219B; '20-7.016B
Earnings: '14-$8.17/sh; '15-$9.19/sh; '16-$10.18/sh; '17-$9.32/sh; '18-$8.96/sh; '19-$8.05/sh; '20-$8.20
Other comments (summarized by me):
Goldman - (1) outer year sustainability of hep C and HIV sales are questions; (2) models $4.7-5.9B of buybacks over 4 years; (3) target price moves from $70 to $76 based on DCF analysis
Credit Swisse - (1) Big issues of HCV market dynamics, esp. price, "What's next," and capital allocation; (2) net income helped by lower than expected tax rate; (3) retaining $110 price target based on 14.5X '15 eps
Wells Fargo - (1) compellingly valued due to significant HCV opportunity and multiple potential blockbuster shots on goal in pipeline; (2) Q3 reduction in Sov sales and then significant pickup in Q4; (3) potential for considerably lower costs for all-oral and likely availability of competitor will help reduce payer concerns; (4) price target goes to $110-112 from $98-101
RBC - (1) 3 levers for p/e expansion - business development, capital allocation, pipeline; (2) thinks ABBV prices around $84K and market expects competitors to be rational with no price wars, (3) base case of $102/sh on 12x '15 est of $8.50/sh, with upside of $120 and downside of $77, (4) market will open from 393K under care to 1.4M patients
BMO -(1) price target of $165 (20 x $8.94, discounted @ 20%); (2) Q3 Sov sales @ 3.341B
JP Morgan - (1) Q3 est $1.63/sh; (2) positives - aggressive adoption of all-oral in 2H14, phase 3 in 3Q14 for TAF, upward bias in '14 and '15 for Sov, attractive valuation at 10.5'15 est and 3 yr EPS Cagr of 65%; (3) stated 17% Sov use with Olysio (wrong); (4) $110 target on 12/15 on 13x est. of $8.35
Nomura - (1) price unlikely to go higher based on Q2 HCV sales, as guidance implies no growth in 2H14, (2) price discount to S&P ('15 p/e 10.9x vs 14.9x) Gild top value pick, (3) $141 target price
Citi - (1) will leverage cash flow of $130B in next ten years for acquisitions, (2) access for Sov is broader than expected, (3) target of $111 based on 12 x '15e of $9.27 - substantial discount based on long-term uncertainty about longevity of hep C revenue stream
UBS - (1) top pick among large caps based on de-risking and value creating things over 12 months, most upside to '14-'15 estimates, lowest p/e on '15 est, TAF providing opportunity to extend HIV franchise, and under appreciated oncology program; (2) $115 price target, with $142 upside and $60 downside
Jefferies - (1) 70% of usage with interferon-free regimen indicating payer tolerance for expensive combinations and raises questions on pricing flexibility, (2) EU reimbursements in small countries has led to pricing in high $60K range, higher than $55K used in model, (3) maintains $84 target, but new estimated sales and earnings to come
Deutsche Bank - (1) 10% switching from Atripla and Truvado adds $3/sh to model; (2) Street expecting $65K for 8 week all-oral, but probably more and if price at $84K, it would add $22/sh to model; (3) Q3 model $2.2B of US Sov, $592M OUS (and $849M in Q4), (4) target $142
Morgan Stanley - (1) risks to sustainability of HCV franchise, (2) expect muted stock reaction given high expectations, (3) price target of $81, with bull case at $145 and bear case of $34 (see chart in my twitter post)
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