Foreign Correspondence

[Amaunet]

I would watch the Mexico/Chavez situation pertaining to Mexico’s forthcoming election.

I live close to the Mexican border. Why is border protection now a priority when the Mexican border remained porous even in the immediate aftermath of 9/11? Mexico is in danger of going left.

I already posted I believe Hugo Chavez has an army of immigrants in California that have contributed to the immigration protests and this is the information for which the US is looking. I will go further, this country is already wired and an attack on Iran, a strong ally of Chavez , will light the fuse.
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If one notes the tag-team efforts of Chavez and great friend China in the Caribbean and the means by which the US has infiltrated China with the idea of tearing the Dragon apart as seen in Taiwan, Xinjiang province and Tibet, I would not rule out China’s presence in the US, albeit the Middle Kingdom will remain hidden.
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-Am

Mexico's presidential race gets down and dirty

Wednesday, March 29, 2006 Posted: 1720 GMT (0120 HKT)

MEXICO CITY (AP) -- Mexico's presidential race has gone sharply negative with attempts to tie the front-runner to Hugo Chavez and portray him as a leftist revolutionary in the same mold as the Venezuelan president.

After weeks of leveling unsubstantiated allegations that Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador's campaign has been infiltrated by Chavez supporters, the conservative National Action Party went even further in a TV ad aired this month.

The commercial takes a clip from a diplomatic flap last year in which Chavez warned Mexican President Vicente Fox: "Don't mess with me sir. You'll get stung." Then it cuts to video of Lopez Obrador yelling at Fox: "Shut up, citizen president."

"Say no to intolerance," it concludes.

From 2,200 miles away in Caracas, Chavez spoke up to complain that "The Mexican right is using television spots ... to try and stop the rise of the Mexican left and of its presidential candidate."

Then Lopez Obrador's opponents, who had dragged Chavez's name into the race in the first place, demanded a federal probe into whether the Venezuelan's retort violated Mexico's law against foreign interference in elections.

So far, the fuss has done little to shrink Lopez Obrador's lead over former Fox energy secretary Felipe Calderon, his nearest rival, four months ahead of the vote. Lopez Obrador says he has never met Chavez, or even spoken with him by phone.

"Our adversaries are very desperate," he said recently.

His opponents portray the former Mexico City mayor as a demagogue who will scare off foreign investment, antagonize Washington, nationalize more industries and leave Mexico deeply in debt.

Chavez and his socialist revolution fed by Venezuela's oil wealth are the sharp end of a Latin American trend toward electing left-leaning leaders after a decade in which free-market economics failed to substantially dent the region's chronic poverty.

Lopez Obrador's base is certainly what he calls Mexico's "poor and forgotten." As mayor of 8.7 million in the "Distrito Federal," he provided cash grants to the needy and financed expensive public works, including a second deck on two major city highways and a new bus system designed to ease traffic woes.

Opponents claim he left the capital more indebted than ever, though convoluted bookkeeping makes that difficult to confirm.

Now he promises to hold down fuel prices at the likely expense of the state-run oil monopoly and other business interests. But he insists he's a moderate, inclusive politician who will welcome international investment and keep Washington happy.

Fox, constitutionally limited to one six-year term, leaves office in December, six months after the July 2 vote, and there are already signs institutional momentum is flowing in Lopez Obrador's direction -- Fox's former chief of staff joined his campaign this month.

Running with the leftist Democratic Revolution Party and two smaller factions, Lopez Obrador holds a 10-plus point lead over Calderon in most polls. Roberto Madrazo, the candidate of the Institutional Revolutionary Party that controlled Mexico's presidency from 1929 until 2000, trails even further behind.

Major business leaders who may soon have to work with a Lopez Obrador administration have been careful not to publicly criticize him. Jose Luis Barraza, president of the pro-private sector Business Coordination Council, denies assertions that the economy will suffer if he wins.

Business leaders have gotten used to the prospect of a Lopez Obrador victory, said Michael Lettieri of the Council On Hemispheric Affairs in Washington.

"Most see him as pretty moderate," Lettieri said. "They are coming to realize he's not this terrifying communist bogeyman who is going to nationalize all kinds of sectors."

Still, analysts see signs of nervousness. Lopez Obrador has promised to reopen the books on banking privatization scandals that presaged the 1994 peso collapse. Such a crusade could lead to charges against some former banking leaders and business people.

"For now, everything is calm, but some of his statements, especially recently, have been exaggeratedly populist," said Yasmin Corona, an analyst at Bursametrica, a financial consulting company in Mexico City. "There is fear in certain sectors."

Pamela Starr, an analyst at Eurasia Group in Washington, says Mexican business is "afraid he's becoming like Chavez, saying reasonable things now but changing when he gets in power."

But Larry Rubin, head of the American Chamber of Commerce of Mexico, says most investors think the country's economy will stay stable regardless of who is in power and can live with any of the three major contenders.

(Copyright 2006 by The Associated Press. All Rights Reserved.)

APTV 03-29-06 1153EST


http://edition.cnn.com/2006/WORLD/americas/03/29/mexico.chavez.ap/


U.S. More Intent on Blocking Chavez
Venezuela's leader seeks to rally opposition to Washington as elections near in the region.
By Paul Richter, Times Staff Writer
March 10, 2006


WASHINGTON — The Bush administration is stepping up efforts to counter leftist Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez as he builds opposition to U.S. influence in Latin America.

U.S. diplomats have sought in recent years to mute their conflicts with Chavez, fearing that a war of words with the flamboyant populist could raise his stature at home and abroad. But in recent months, as Chavez has sharpened his attacks — and touched American nerves by increasing ties with Iran — American officials have become more outspoken about their intention to isolate him.

Signaling the shift, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice told Congress last month that the United States was actively organizing other countries to carry out an "inoculation strategy" against what it sees as meddling by Chavez.

U.S. officials believe Chavez uses his oil wealth to reward governments that share his anti-American views and to foment change in those that don't.

"We are working with other countries to make certain that there is a united front against some of the things that Venezuela gets involved in," said Rice, who called Venezuela a "sidekick" of Iran.

Rice leaves today on an eight-day trip to Latin America, Indonesia and Australia, including a stop in Chile for the inauguration of President-elect Michelle Bachelet. Rice said pointedly Thursday that she did not plan to see Chavez, who is expected to attend the inauguration Saturday.

As part of the administration's new view of Venezuela, U.S. defense and intelligence officials have revised their assessment of the security threat Venezuela poses to the region. They say they believe Venezuela will have growing military and diplomatic relationships with North Korea and Iran, and point with concern to its arms buildup. Of equal worry to them is Venezuela's overhaul of its military doctrine, which now emphasizes "asymmetric warfare" — a strategy of sabotage and hit-and-run attacks against a greater military power, much like that used by Iraqi insurgents.

The U.S. government's revived interest in Latin America comes at a time when Congress has been pressing the Bush administration to define its strategy amid a growing number of clashes with the Chavez government.

Last month, the United States and Venezuela engaged in a diplomatic tit-for-tat reminiscent of the Cold War, trading espionage accusations against each other's diplomats, then expelling them. The two countries have also clashed on airspace and landing rights for civilian and military aircraft, as the United States has sought to block Venezuela's bid to become a nonpermanent member of the United Nations Security Council. Venezuela has threatened to end the oil sales that provide the United States with about 12% of its imports, and begun rewriting its contracts with U.S. oil companies.

The tougher U.S. approach also reflects an administration interest in trying to head off any further leftist inroads in upcoming elections in the region. A number of governments face elections this year in Latin America, and Chavez has made known his support for opposition candidates in several of the countries, including Mexico, which will elect its president in July.

"There is some concern that if the United States doesn't play its cards right, there could be a major policy shift in the region that favors Venezuela's interests over the United States," said Daniel P. Erikson of the Inter-American Dialogue, a research organization in Washington.

Since taking office in 1999, Chavez has been trying to build a left-leaning alliance and has offered cut-rate oil and other inducements through a foreign aid program some believe to be worth billions of dollars annually. His stated aim is to push an alternative development model that eases the sting of globalism and favors the interests of the poor, who make up about 40% of the region's population.

Bernardo Alvarez, Venezuela's ambassador to the United States, defended his country's policies, saying they respond to failed economic models that have increased poverty and social exclusion. "Chavez and [Bolivian President] Evo Morales are not accidents of history," Alvarez said.

In a recent interview, Alvarez defended Venezuela's relationship with Iran, saying the two nations had forged strong ties as co-founders of OPEC in 1960. He said his government's repeated efforts to improve relations with Washington have been met with indifference.

"Any time we try to open a dialogue, there are people who act to sabotage it," Alvarez said.

Many observers are skeptical that Chavez has much appeal beyond Fidel Castro's Cuba and impoverished Bolivia, but U.S. officials are concerned that his efforts could foment violence in unstable countries and weaken Latin American support for the American program of free market economics and U.S.-style governance.

Rice said U.S. officials were trying to build international pressure to address what they see as Venezuelan abuses of democratic institutions at home. This year, she called European Union officials to draw their attention to the trial of a Venezuelan opposition group, Sumate, whose leaders face treason charges for accepting a $31,000 grant from the Washington-based National Endowment for Democracy, a private group funded by Congress.

"This kangaroo trial is a disgrace," she said. The EU, a key trading partner of Venezuela, signaled its concern by sending observers to the trial, she noted.

Chavez reacted strongly to Rice's criticism, saying it amounted to plans for an "imperialist attack" that he would resist.

Some State Department officials continue to emphasize that they do not want to be confrontational. Assistant Secretary of State Thomas A. Shannon, the top U.S. diplomat for Latin America, has said he is not looking for a quarrel with Chavez.

"We don't want to exaggerate his role or presence in the region," Shannon said in an interview. "We want to stay focused on a positive agenda for the region."

Military and intelligence officials have been more blunt.

Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld last month likened Chavez to Hitler, noting that both leaders were elected legally. At the same time, Director of National Intelligence John D. Negroponte, appearing before the Senate last week, said Chavez was spending "very extravagantly" to build alliances and seeking to strengthen ties with Iran, North Korea and Cuba.

Venezuelan Vice President Jose Vicente Rangel said this week in Caracas, the capital, that the recent tough talk by U.S. officials "represents a victory of the hawks in U.S. foreign policy," the official Cuban News Agency reported.

Whether the United States' tough talk will resonate among Latin American leaders is uncertain. Thus far, only Mexico, not an immediate neighbor of Venezuela, has persisted in criticizing Chavez. Mexican President Vicente Fox, who is in the final nine months of his presidential term and hails from a conservative party strongly committed to free trade, exchanged angry words with Chavez late last year over Mexico's U.S. ties.

In the widening spat, the Bush administration might be able to enlist countries that are heavily dependent on the U.S., or badly want the benefits of better ties with the north, one senior Latin American diplomat said.

But others, "even the ones who don't like Chavez, don't want to be out front," said the envoy, who declined to be identified because of the sensitivity of the subject. "They don't want trouble."


Times staff writer Chris Kraul in Los Angeles contributed to this report.


http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-uslatin10mar10,0,2226304.story?coll=la-home-head....


Reference:
Chavez, thorn in Bush’s side and economic lifeline for Cuba another thorn in Bush’ side, is also gaining vast influence in the Caribbean along with that major thorn in Bush’s side, China.

The Caribbean- Chávez was in Jamaica Tuesday to finalize details on the PetroCaribe agreement signed in June. The deal, which is meant to help small Caribbean economies cope with high fuel prices, offers generous financing for oil sales and favorable rates in exchange for goods, services, or credit. Thirteen of the 15 members of the Caribbean Community group, or Caricom, have already signed on.
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China is waging an aggressive campaign of seduction in the Caribbean, wooing countries away from relationships with rival Taiwan, opening markets for its expanding economy, promising to send tourists, and shipping police to Haiti in the first communist deployment in the Western Hemisphere.

And the United States, China's Cold War enemy, is benignly watching the Asian economic superpower move into its backyard.
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