Biotech Values

[Rocky3]

$MVIRB $JNJ $GILD $ABBV - Jefferies out with report on Medivir

see

Jefferies on Medivir: "As Good as it Gets"; Dwn to underperform http://t.co/pAJdm1CfXd $MVIRb

— H3NPHLO (@H3NPHLO) June 24, 2014

I don't understand how it can estimate Olysio sales at $640MM for Q2. US scripts are more than 3 times Q1. Medivir disclosed Olysio has half of the HCV market in Japan now, though not disclosing about size of market. Medivir has started selling in Sweden (a small market, but it has indicated that there have been sales with Sovaldi).

I think the the estimate for '14 of $1.8B in at least 50% too low, so earnings should be at least 35/sh SEK (it is trading around 140SEK). So it is trading at 4x '14 earnings (and probably lower since sales may be closer to 100% higher thanthe $1,8B estimate). BUT that may not be too low since sales will almost disappear by Q1 or Q2 2015, except for Japan and other OUS countries. The big issue is the same as GILD and ABBV - how long will the HCV market last - but in addition it is whether Medivir can be part of an all-oral treatment sooner rather than later. It will be interesting to see how the market will react to Olysio Q2 sales when announced by JNJ in mid July.