Biotech Values

[frontiers]

What's ACHN worth in a buy-out

I just posted this today on the ACHN board over at YHOO --

IDIX has IDX-21437 and a back-up (IDX-21459), both NS5B polymerase inhibitors of the nucleoside class and this was MRK's interest in that it got a triple combo (MK-5172+MK-8742) out of the IDIX buy-out. Samatasvir is a second rate compound relative to MK-8742 and of little value to MRK or others. IDIX has lost one Interference case (105871) and has filed another (105981) vs. Gilead. Winning the IP back is important for MRK and IDIX, both of which had little in the patents in terms of teaching. The necessary 2'-fluoro compound could not be made by the inexperienced researchers at IDIX or the researchers at MRK that were incompetent. ACHN has no such IP issue. MRK with IDIX will now fight GILD from valley with GILD on the
plateau. Frazier will be the General at the front of the MRK/IDIX crowd if he is willing to take the heat.

ACHN has a triple combo with ACH-3422 + ACH-3102 + ACH-2684. Additionally, ACHN has other nucleoside inhibitors in pre-clinical development (recent CC). IP has been noted to have FTO based on two legal opionions.

This makes ACHN a good take-over candidate for companies lacking such combinations and that includes BMS.

For these reasons, ACHN is worth as much as IDIX or more. $40 or higher is doable once P1 data on ACH-3422 comes out this fall.