You have been in this stock almost as long as me! My investments came in three waves (interspersed with periods of additional accumulation). The first was an investment in monoclonal antibodies as a young Wall Streeter; then an investment in TNT following the sad passing of a very dear friend from breast cancer; and, finally, an investment in Bavi's MOA to capitalize on an avant garde (i.e., upstream) aspect of immunotherapy.
I currently advise companies on corp fin and strategy. What would I tell SK and the BOD? At the moment, it would be to stick with the course-change that happened a couple of years ago: court the KOLs, focus the company's limited resources on one or two trials only, go to conferences to raise visibility and articulate the bavi MOA, and get a bonafide deal person on the management team; Peregrine needs to partner. Significant credibility was destroyed, rightly or wrongly, when the Fargo dose-switching happened, but not all is lost. The Abbvie deal, IMO, was absolutely real; there's nothing to stop something like it from returning. I posted at the time (2012) that lenders do not lend to perpetually negative cashflow companies unless there is an exit strategy. It just doesn't happen in the capital markets. Period. Therefore, the plausible exit had to have been cash from a shortly-to-be third party, which we later learned would have been Abbvie.
The circumstances today are further evolved in the right direction. The MOA is clearer; the FDA has moved bavi to Phase III; immunotherapy is increasingly validated and hotter than ever; and the KOLs seem to be doing a decent job bolstering the company's platform. It typically does take time to allow the dust to settle in hiccuped M&A deals. We had one. Things move slowly in the game, but a lot gets healed in two years.
Having said that, like you I don't know what is up -- but something feels like it is to me too. I chuckle at all the guessing by people on this board about what will happen. Lots of fun, I suppose. The reality is that companies have so much more going on behind the curtain than what the public guesses -- this said from experience.
Anyway, good luck to you on two fronts. The investment one. And more importantly, on the health front.
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