Plug Power Inc (PLUG)

[uksausage]

yet another article that is too backward looking IMHO.

although he tries to turn it around with a genuine attempt to predict future profits but his constant looking back at the past when judging mgt forecasts misses out on one big point.


they have already booked sales this year that would beat his annual revenue forecast for 2015. [yes I know they have to deliver to book revenues]

Seems analysts need to take lessons in product/market lifecycles, yes the management have been bad at predicting the take up of this revolutionary technology (not saying it is new but it can now start to deliver its promise form many years ago) in the past but there is obvious signs that its time has come.

There is no indication that he acknowledges the growing market they are entering - probably 4 times that of the market they were addressing 2 years ago.

So good start but throw away the first half of the article and listen to the business updates, do research on the markets they are entering and the opportunity their existing customer base has for repeat business and extrapolate forward their buying patterns - when will Walmart for instance order their next 6 Distribution centers or Lowes their first retail stores?

When will FedEx roll out to delivery vehicles - do you know how many that is? or Sysco to its delivery vehicles?

Mgt has to deliver just one of these new markets in 205 for him to be off by possibly a factor of 10.