Tuesday, May 27, 2014 2:15:27 PM
Good post, Rule62. For a "buy and hold" investor who's going to hold for a year or two, it won't matter. But as you've delineated here, it will matter a lot to those wondering where to enter or exit for the shorter-term, and also will matter hugely for any options players.
I think it will be absolutely fascinating to see what the s/p trading action will be like going into June 30 (last day of Q2) as those who are monitoring the coming FVA up or down dynamic will be very sensitized to whether the s/p appears to be coming in above or below the $15.58 s/p of record at the close of Q1 on 3/31/14.
If the s/p is well-below 15.58, it could get quickly bid up as people anticipate a FVA credit/gain to PEIX's EPS for the Q1. If, however, the s/p is above 15.58, there might be a selloff right before earnings. But then if it sells off BELOW 15.58, it could get bid right back up, but then it might go OVER 15.58 and sell off again!
Wild and crazy times ahead of us, IMO.
I think it will be absolutely fascinating to see what the s/p trading action will be like going into June 30 (last day of Q2) as those who are monitoring the coming FVA up or down dynamic will be very sensitized to whether the s/p appears to be coming in above or below the $15.58 s/p of record at the close of Q1 on 3/31/14.
If the s/p is well-below 15.58, it could get quickly bid up as people anticipate a FVA credit/gain to PEIX's EPS for the Q1. If, however, the s/p is above 15.58, there might be a selloff right before earnings. But then if it sells off BELOW 15.58, it could get bid right back up, but then it might go OVER 15.58 and sell off again!
Wild and crazy times ahead of us, IMO.
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