Foreign Correspondence

[otraque]

Operation Swarmer goes "fizzle"( this was the grand opening of newest Rummyhead strategies to win in Iraq)

<<Iraq Eyewitness: It will take more than media-friendly air assaults to save the country from civil war, writes Nick Meo in Baghdad

http://www.sundayherald.com/54734

FOR a couple of days last week, the political complexities and sectarian murders in Iraq were finally off the TV screens. Instead, the networks showed spectacular pictures - provided by the Pentagon - of square-jawed soldiers jumping out of helicopters with their Iraqi buddies and going into action against al-Qaeda fighters in what was billed as the biggest air assault since the invasion in 2003.
The pictures from Operation Swarmer sent out a powerful message that America is still in this war.

After weeks of demoralising talk of drawing down troop numbers, handing over security to Iraqis, and standing aside if civil war breaks out, a show of force was required from the US military. The day Iraq's so-far ineffective new parliament first met was the ideal time to launch an exciting new operation - it might also have diverted public attention from George Bush's waning popularity and growing doubts over a war which no longer looks winnable to large numbers of Americans.

Operation Swarmer was aimed at around 200 supposedly al-Qaeda-linked insurgents in the heart of the Sunni Triangle. They are men who wanted to set up a new base of terrorist operations near the city of Samarra, about 100 miles north of Baghdad. One Iraqi official even compared this new terrorist nest to Fallujah, a city taken over by insurgents until the US military launched one of the biggest and most controversial battles of the war.

As Operation Swarmer fizzled to a close yesterday, it became clear that the biggest air assault since 2003 wasn't really such a knock-out blow against terrorism after all. 50 helicopters and 1500 troops managed to find just one insurgent( initial news awas they had trapped a bunch of insurgents including the planner of the attack on the GoldenDome-max) and a few weapons caches, according to an Iraqi official. Nearly 50 people were detained, but many were quickly released. Sunni politicians complained that the operation showed a reliance on military solutions when what was needed was political answers.

The US military still insisted Swarmer had been a success and stressed that it showed the effectiveness of the new Iraqi security forces which America and Britain have been training for years .

But given the fast-changing and dangerous political situation on the ground, Swarmer looked like a throwback to the past. Many analysts believe the insurgency is waning and that the danger to Iraq is now civil war and political collapse, problems which have no military solution.

Back in 2003, military action against the bad guys seemed to many Americans to be the answer in Iraq . But three years after US and British tanks first rolled across its borders in the most controversial war of modern times, the prospects for a happy ending to the Iraq adventure look dimmer than ever.

Security is perhaps the biggest problem. In the ongoing chaos, it is almost impossible to build a political solution or an economy. When the parliament met on Thursday, it was behind blast barriers in the Green Zone. Outside in the Red Zone - which is all of Iraq except for a few protected acres along the Tigris - anarchy reigns.

Criminal gangs and personal power struggles have been as big a problem as jihadi fighters for some time, and now sectarian murder gangs and death squads are slaughtering hundreds. Iraq witnesses on average five to seven car bombs a day, sometimes far more. The US military patrols the streets less than it used to - commanders are anxious to keep politically costly casualty figures down - so Iraqi forces now drive the streets, their faces hidden by balaclavas to stop jihadis identifying them. They drive pick-up trucks with heavy machine-guns mounted on the back, swivelling them at any pedestrians in the general area. When a car bomb goes off they are infamous for shooting up anything that moves.

These are the men who will soon have full responsibility for security. Nobody thinks the Americans and British will still be here in a year or so, despite the politicians repeating the mantra: "As long as it takes."

Attempts to build up Iraqi security forces are becoming frenzied as it becomes clearer that the coalition of the willing is eyeing the exits, despite not having a clear exit strategy. ( they will still be there next year, or moved on into Iran,imo, as Operation Save The World By Mindless Imperialist Leaders moves on, like a plague of locusts --otraque




Defence minister John Reid arrived in Basra yesterday, after lambasting the British press in Baghdad for seeing only despair in Iraq. It wasn't clear whether he had met any ordinary people to listen to their despairing views. Reid praised the success of British servicemen in training up Iraqi forces, although these still have little responsibility and some Iraqi security forces have been linked to Shia death squads.

"Terrorists love a vacuum," Reid told reporters before holding a series of talks with Iraq's political leaders. He said that moving too quickly could backfire in Iraq, a country where every political move risks fuelling sectarian tensions .

"It is no good rushing and getting the wrong type of government," Reid insisted. " We have found from all other areas in the world, including in our own case in Northern Ireland, that a political vacuum allows people of malevolent intent, and people who would use violence and terrorism, opportunities to step into that vacuum."

Ordinary Iraqis, meanwhile, who hate US troops as occupiers, wonder what will happen when they pull out. The growing fear is of a sectarian civil war. Hundreds, perhaps even thousands, are being ethnically cleansed from their homes in mixed areas of Baghdad, and dozens of tortured bodies turn up daily.

The political process seems as paralysed as ever. Last week the new parliament couldn't even agree on a speaker, and the Shia bloc is at loggerheads with the Sunni and Kurdish MPs over a choice of prime minister. The deadlock drags on as the country totters on the brink of civil war and nobody seems to have a solution or a sense of urgency. Amazingly, the US embassy has even started talking about meeting officials from their arch-enemy Iran for discussions in Baghdad.

Iran is now a powerful player in Iraq. Many of the Shia politicians who make up the dominant bloc in parliament took shelter from Saddam with their co-religionists , and some think Iran pulls the strings across its border. This raises the extraordinary prospect of America having to do some kind of deal with an Iran it now regards as a major backer of terrorism and a potential nuclear danger.(edit: i see no deal, as Bush is still the CIC, and he is recalcitrant--he will wish talks be arrogant and pushy--this is the nature of this deluded out of contact with reality leader that unbelievabbly still has 36% of country's support--which means in the more than light red states he remains The Boss---this is called a geographically severely polarized nation. I still don't people realize how polarized this country is--otraque)

Three years on, it's a very different world to the square-jawed simplicities of Operation Iraqi Freedom's battles to build democracy and defeat Saddam . And the biggest air assault since 2003 won't change any of that.

19 March 2006

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