Since there presumably is some elevated IV in Teva options compared to norms, the only explanation that makes sense is that the market does not believe the sole approval theory, and that at-risk launch or no, the players will compete each other to death. I haven't looked at IVs. Must be getting blase, I used to do that stuff. Has anyone looked at Mylan's?
Who has looked at IVs farther out than June or July? The other explanation is, just because it's been six years, that doesn't mean approval is imminent. This suggests Mylan has more market credibility than MNTA wrt to recent hints about delays. That's interesting, and perhaps stupid, given the history of MNTA and Teva wrt to mEnox. I've been tempted. My guess is nothing happens by Tuesday and beyond, giving me time check out all the IVs if no one else has :>) If so, I would expect MNTA to retest recent lows, and I would add a trading position. If approval does come shortly, my core position will do well enough, but I'm not expecting an instant home run, not even $20.
Someone, probably jbog, suggested it would be suicide to launch at risk with closely timed approvals for both generic companies. Maybe, but the game theory suggests that the first approval launches immediately, because both have been stockpiling. The second company will launch because, well, at the very least, they've got all this inventory and sales staff, and manufacturing capacity, they should get what they can for it. Maybe it would be a race to the bottom a la enoxaparin, but at least MNTA has a better deal with mCopax than mEnox. The point is, I don't think the approvals have to be near simultaneous for this to happen. So that will be an overhang for a while. Hence the low IVs.
That is to say, even if MNTA does get sole approval, the market will not buy that for a solid year. And during that year, we've still got this unresolved patent problem . . .
Low IVs not amazing to me at all.
Regards, Rockrat, who is going to spend his long weekend being a RockRat instead of an options junkie.
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