MDA - Market Direction Analysis

[TREND1]

LG
Sorry ! I though some people might like to know things
like the probability of a future price.

.........................................................
Posted by: Larry Dudash
In reply to: None Date:5/18/2003 1:29:39 PM
Post #of 1237

LDkeynote: Probability of future prices
Soruce:
Options as a Strategic Investment.
by Lawrence G. McMillan
1980 Edition
page 403
A formula using cumulative normal distribution, natural log,
etc... describes how a future price of a stock
can be estimated using:
(1)Volatility.
(2)and days into the future.

Based on the closing price of BRCM on 4/17/03 of 16.60
the probability of BRCM closing at 21.40 or above on
Friday was only 7.30%

Translation:
BRCM has move up too far to soon.IMHO.






Larry's QQQ and SMH Trades(#board-1468),Long Term Timers(#board-1622)

...........................................................