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UT Comment - The complexity of Belarus' election

Fourth, Belarusians aren't cut off from the world. Knowledge of the colored revolutions (esp Ukraine and Georgia) have made an impact. Luka has taken advantage of the simple facts that "after a colored revolution, there is more media freedom, party development, but the economy - based on precedent - does not get better - actually it will probably get worse."

One of the primary purposes of the US instigated ‘color revolutions’ is to install a puppet regime subservient to Washington and thus consequently privatize pertinent corporations or sectors that Bush may swoop down and suck the blood from the throats of the targeted country.

As goes Ukraine and Georgia so goes Kyrgyzstan.

An oppositionist website, Analitik.kg, published a poll purporting that over 80 percent of those questioned viewed the March 2005 events as a coup not a revolution. Baktybek Sadyrbaev, an Osh-based entrepreneur told EurasiaNet: "Officials continue to extort bribes, the police continue to harass people, and the economy is doing badly. Our people have been used by one group of power-mongers to topple another one. There is no difference between them." http://www.eurasianet.org

-Am

UT Comment - The complexity of Belarus' election
By Peter Lavelle :: Daily Comment
Published on March 18, 2002


MOSCOW, March 18, 2006: Understanding Belarus' presidential election is anything but simple.

First, yes the majority's choice should be accepted. There is every indication that Luka can win a fair poll.

Second, there is no indication that the vote is anything but fair. The lack of freedom of assembly, free speech, and hindering party development, etc, etc shows that this regime is really frightened. This campaign is very much a farce. There won't be (to my knowledge) a reliable exit polls (this could be dangerous - see below).

Third, yes, people vote with their pocketbook. However, when the vast majority has their pocketbook held hostage by the state, the concept of voting for a candidate strictly on relative economic well being loses its meaningfulness. Belarusians are a captive audience - this hurts the democratic process.

Fourth, Belarusians aren't cut off from the world. Knowledge of the colored revolutions (esp Ukraine and Georgia) have made an impact. Luka has taken advantage of the simple facts that "after a colored revolution, there is more media freedom, party development, but the economy - based on precedent - does not get better - actually it will probably get worse."

Sixth, the West (EU and US) are good at talking, but are short on actions. Ukraine and Georgia know a lot about this now. Western cheap talk undermines Belarus' democracy. Those who make a living pursuing "regime change" in the CIS now face unemployment - thank goodness!

Seventh, Belarus' "economic miracle" is all but spent. Luka has said as much. Russia will slowly increase natural gas prices in 2008 and beyond and Gazprom now owns/controls Belarus' pipeline (the payoff to unofficially support Luka in the election?). This "election" is necessary Luka and his circle to hunker down to preserve their control (and quite possible confront the Kremlin as some stage).

Eighth, Luka's system is weak and its political assault on society increases the likelihood that political change could be quick and violent in the medium term.

In closing - Belarus' situation is very complex. Yes, Luka is popular, but his system is painting itself into a corner - politically and economically all this is untenable.

http://www.untimely-thoughts.com/