Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)

[brainlessone]

Who wants bonds: yes there are retail bonds.

but who really needs bonds:

corporations which need to make short term investments that are really safe

pension plans with guarenteed pay outs

college funds

annuities

insurance companies

all kinds of hedges

These are the guys who are driving the market. How are they going to make their 4% gurenteed annuities if the bond is at 3%.

People need that guarentee or all kinds of things unwind.

People are going to be buying all the bonds they can until it does them no good anymore. They wake up in the morning and say to themselves, my god, what if the interest rates are lower tomorrow?

countering this is the retail public who may once again recognize that if they had thrown ten darts at the stock pages last october, they had a good chance of having a 100% return by now.

these two forces will seek some balance.

My question is who suffers the most when rates go down.

I think one of the main reasons the stocks have gone up is a as a way to protect against rates going to 1