Many HCV revenue models include breakouts for the treatment-experienced population. Where do the size estimates for this population come from? An estimate of this population size would be quite difficult, given cures, serial retreatments, and mortality.
Indeed, there are several variables that affect the prevalence of treatment-experienced patients, so the number of TE patients that gets plugged into revenue models for HCV drugs is derived from other models rather than empirical data.
“The efficient-market hypothesis may be the foremost piece of B.S. ever promulgated in any area of human knowledge!”