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NICARAGUAGuard against foul play in presidential electionsBY MARIFELI [e-mail] March 5, Nicaragua's Atlantic Coast held elections for its regional council. The coast, where 10 percent of the population lives, has elected its councilors every four years since 1990. But for the fact that 2006 is also a presidential year, all eyes would not have been on the region's elections.
The Liberal Constitutional Party -- the machinery of former President Arnoldo Alemán, who is under house arrest for embezzlement -- garnered the most votes. The Sandinistas, whom polls had projected to win, came in second. Candidates supporting Liberal Eduardo Montealegre and Sandinista Herty Lewites, dissidents who are running for president, came in a distant fourth and fifth. Third-place Yatama (Motherland), the region's indigenous party, holds the balance of power.
The coast, however, is not a political vane for November. Rather, civil society and international actors worried that the Supreme Electoral Council (CSE) lacked the disposition to tend the process properly. Professionalism has not been the CSE's hallmark. The regional elections offered an opportunity to do it right, or play fast and loose, and the CSE did it right. Domestic and international observers certified the integrity of the coast elections. Had fast-and-loose been the tenor, the ride until the presidential election in November would have been even bumpier.
Unfortunately, a free and fair process in March does not set a binding precedent. When Violeta Chamorro defeated Sandinista Daniel Ortega in 1990, no one thought that the Nicaraguan transition would be easy. Yet, few could have then imagined what happened in the late 1990s under Alemán's presidency. Alemán and Ortega, until then go-for-the-jugular antagonists, drew a pact to control all major institutions, which undermined the separation of powers at the heart of democracy. The fledgling transition was, in effect, hamstrung.
Since last year, several developments have signaled trouble for the Liberal-Sandinista pact.
• The Alemán-Ortega effort to weaken President Enrique Bolaños' powers -- or even give him the boot before his term was up -- failed. Ortega and Bolaños reached an agreement that respected his term and the presidency. Alemán Liberals stood on the outside looking in.
• Montealegre and Lewites launched their presidential campaigns and quickly took the lead in the polls. Other Liberals and Sandinistas, too, have broken ranks with their respective caudillos.
• The Organization of American States and the Carter Center established missions in Nicaragua and are there through November. In addition, the United States no longer supports Alemán and is ready to accept a dissident Sandinista as president even if it prefers Montealegre.
The Alemán-Ortega duopoly is in danger. That is why the citizenry, the anti-pact forces and international actors must keep up their guard without quarter against foul play in the presidential contest. Montealegre and Lewites are disadvantaged by their weak electoral machineries. Still, a free and fair election in which both are allowed to run would likely make one of them president.
Montealegre and Lewites have promised to work together to bury el pacto and restore institutional checks and balances.
An unprecedented four-man race -- the two dissidents, an Alemán-backed candidate and Ortega -- fairly represents the electorate. Who benefits, and who loses? Ortega might, as the anti-Sandinista vote would divide for the first time since 1990. Still, polls suggest that three-time loser Ortega cannot win with Lewites in the race. Might chicanery prevent one or both dissidents from registering as candidates?
If a four-man race goes ahead, other concerns would come to the fore. Could the Liberal and Sandinista machineries be used to selectively suppress the vote? Would the dissidents be able to mount effective nationwide campaigns? How well would the CSE do in a tightly contested election?
Let's imagine a happy ending with a win for Montealegre or Lewites. Their challenge would be to establish common ground and move Nicaragua forward.
Bolaños is leaving his successor a sound macro economy that cannot be upset. Yet, the majority who lives in poverty must be brought on board. Compromise is the essence of politics. Alemán and Ortega embraced it to pursue raw power; Montealegre and Lewites must raise it to make Nicaragua better. In that sense, they would be picking up where Violeta Chamorro left off in 1996. Not an ideal place, perhaps, but a hopeful one nonetheless.
Marifeli Pérez-Stable is vice president for democratic governance at the Inter-American Dialogue in Washington, D.C.