Biotech Values

[Rocky3]

All such talk should immediately cease

No matter what anyone says or thinks, it will not stop.

My guess is that it will be major discussion around the HCV drugs for at least 3 years. It will limit the valuations of GILD, ABBV, ENTA, and (to a much lesser extent) JNJ, MRK, and BMY. And in fact there is no real way to answer the question except by the passage of time - just too many variables.

I find it much more interesting to talk about more short-term issues (which also probably have no way to determine the "right" answer), including:

1) Prices of all-orals (significant discussions here and by the professional analysts);

2) Eventual percentage of HCV market controlled by GILD, JNJ, ABBV, MRK, and BMY - I think most have been very surprised by success of JNJ so far - Will be interesting to see if new scripts disappear when all-orals appear, or if there is some residual market - when will ABBV scripts exceed JNJ? 01/15, 04/15, 07/15, or later;

3) Size and timing of non-US market opportunity - clear that there is much slower uptake in EU than in US and that it will apply to all products there, so even if there is approval of competing products there, it will take quite a bit of time to determine percentage usage.