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Thursday, May 08, 2014 6:22:10 PM
$ORFG Thoughts and Chart:
Although I'll freely admit right now the chart is looking rather drab, one indicator to keep an eye on is the ADX. The Average Directional Index (ADX) measures trend strength without regard to trend direction. The other two indicators, Plus Directional Indicator (+DI) and Minus Directional Indicator (-DI), complement ADX by defining trend direction. Used together, chartists can determine both the direction and strength of the trend. The Average Directional Index (ADX) is used to measure the strength or weakness of a trend, not the actual direction. Directional movement is defined by +DI and -DI. In general, the bulls have the edge when +DI is greater than - DI, while the bears have the edge when - DI is greater. Crosses of these directional indicators can be combined with ADX for a complete trading system. Todays close leaves the +DI and the -DI at a crossroads of sorts- who will have the edge after the close tomorrow? That I can't answer, I can only hope. Even though I'm not a big fan of Friday PR's if there were ever a Friday to drop one for the charts sake, tomorrow is the day. A meaty one, not a run of the mill "update", again can't predict when or if it'll come. My money is on it coming. I'll wait for it. Back to the ADX... At its most basic the Average Directional Index (ADX) can be used to determine if a security is trending or not. This determination helps traders choose between a trend following system or a non-trend following system. Wilder suggests that a strong trend is present when ADX is above 25 and no trend is present when below 20. There appears to be a gray zone between 20 and 25. As noted above, chartists may need to adjust the settings to increase sensitivity and signals. ADX also has a fair amount of lag because of all the smoothing techniques. Many technical analysts use 20 as the key level for ADX. Currently the ADX is below 25 (barely) and above 20 (barely), it could be said that $ORFG is no longer trending. What does that mean? It's lost? Wandering?- What it means to me is that we now have one key support level left. The 200(SMA) @.014- will it hit that low? That depends on how willing current holders are to sell at a loss- For many days it seemed that holders were unwilling to sell down here. That changed today- It was discussed (mentioned really) that there was a large holder exiting, couple million shares it was said- certainly enough shares to take it below recent support around .021-
It makes perfect sense for the downtrend to be weakening as we approach the 200(SMA), typically that would be a reversal point, or at least a bounce level.
Personally I'm a bit of a Gambler. I'm holding and adding. I'm playing with house money however which makes it a little easier to keep adding, and holding all. Am I red? Yes on some lots I am (deeply) however I've managed to trade a bit along the way taking advantage of the channel we've been in for a couple weeks.
I'm willing to wait- In for a penny in for a pound(ing).
Before the ADX dropped below 25 I was of the opinion that the downtrend was weakening, and awaiting a reversal. I'm still of the same mind.
The RSI continues to be at oversold levels. Also closed below the lower Bolli today another bearish sign.
I believe when the reversal happens (assuming it does) that the upswing will be explosive. We will finally be in "Next Week"
Obviously there must be some factor(s) holding up the company and it's formal name/ticker change.. when that is resolved and we get the news we're waiting for and the elusive valuation, I believe the chart and thus the PPS will recover quickly in an epic fashion.
Just one traders thoughts and opinion-
Thanks for reading
~KP
original post
*Some parts of this post pertaining to the explanation of the ADX , +DI, and -DI were taken from stockcharts.com as I am neither willing to, nor capable of explaining it as clearly as what is written there.
Although I'll freely admit right now the chart is looking rather drab, one indicator to keep an eye on is the ADX. The Average Directional Index (ADX) measures trend strength without regard to trend direction. The other two indicators, Plus Directional Indicator (+DI) and Minus Directional Indicator (-DI), complement ADX by defining trend direction. Used together, chartists can determine both the direction and strength of the trend. The Average Directional Index (ADX) is used to measure the strength or weakness of a trend, not the actual direction. Directional movement is defined by +DI and -DI. In general, the bulls have the edge when +DI is greater than - DI, while the bears have the edge when - DI is greater. Crosses of these directional indicators can be combined with ADX for a complete trading system. Todays close leaves the +DI and the -DI at a crossroads of sorts- who will have the edge after the close tomorrow? That I can't answer, I can only hope. Even though I'm not a big fan of Friday PR's if there were ever a Friday to drop one for the charts sake, tomorrow is the day. A meaty one, not a run of the mill "update", again can't predict when or if it'll come. My money is on it coming. I'll wait for it. Back to the ADX... At its most basic the Average Directional Index (ADX) can be used to determine if a security is trending or not. This determination helps traders choose between a trend following system or a non-trend following system. Wilder suggests that a strong trend is present when ADX is above 25 and no trend is present when below 20. There appears to be a gray zone between 20 and 25. As noted above, chartists may need to adjust the settings to increase sensitivity and signals. ADX also has a fair amount of lag because of all the smoothing techniques. Many technical analysts use 20 as the key level for ADX. Currently the ADX is below 25 (barely) and above 20 (barely), it could be said that $ORFG is no longer trending. What does that mean? It's lost? Wandering?- What it means to me is that we now have one key support level left. The 200(SMA) @.014- will it hit that low? That depends on how willing current holders are to sell at a loss- For many days it seemed that holders were unwilling to sell down here. That changed today- It was discussed (mentioned really) that there was a large holder exiting, couple million shares it was said- certainly enough shares to take it below recent support around .021-
It makes perfect sense for the downtrend to be weakening as we approach the 200(SMA), typically that would be a reversal point, or at least a bounce level.
Personally I'm a bit of a Gambler. I'm holding and adding. I'm playing with house money however which makes it a little easier to keep adding, and holding all. Am I red? Yes on some lots I am (deeply) however I've managed to trade a bit along the way taking advantage of the channel we've been in for a couple weeks.
I'm willing to wait- In for a penny in for a pound(ing).
Before the ADX dropped below 25 I was of the opinion that the downtrend was weakening, and awaiting a reversal. I'm still of the same mind.
The RSI continues to be at oversold levels. Also closed below the lower Bolli today another bearish sign.
I believe when the reversal happens (assuming it does) that the upswing will be explosive. We will finally be in "Next Week"
Obviously there must be some factor(s) holding up the company and it's formal name/ticker change.. when that is resolved and we get the news we're waiting for and the elusive valuation, I believe the chart and thus the PPS will recover quickly in an epic fashion.
Just one traders thoughts and opinion-
Thanks for reading
~KP
original post
*Some parts of this post pertaining to the explanation of the ADX , +DI, and -DI were taken from stockcharts.com as I am neither willing to, nor capable of explaining it as clearly as what is written there.
I Don't Need A Disclaimer
