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Monday, April 21, 2014 6:17:28 PM
I agree that the H PIERS will be paid off (ultimately), however, the distribution of the RONs in May 2014 isn't enough to do it. There isn't enough value in the RONs to make them go away. I also do not believe they are being punished, or used as a lever, to allow a theoretical POG at the end of the rainbow.
The CA claims are not settled (for simple reasons, nothing to do with theatrics) currently, and the $65M from the recent commutation has not been announced as cleared the all of the required parties. If they 'get done, and are excess above other claims, there might be more in the distribution. But, at least, the RONs are scheduled to be distributed. So the PIERs get the RONS in May. I'm looking for a discount valuation on them also against the claim amount; the most current PV of the WMMRC revenue stream, less year to year administrative costs of an indentured trustee.
I do not know if the RONs will be 'trading debt, especially the TIER 2 RONs that could be classified as equity. I guess we will find out in May.
The next round of distributions would appear to be when the CA refunds and the commutations are realized, and competing claims are resolved.
I agree that the PIERS will be paid in total, before any assets flow to lower classes of equity (the placemarkers must first be moved into LT "interests," and that has not been done yet).
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