Biotech Values

[Rocky3]

Monthly number Guerlain provided might be more accurate. Let's use his monthly number for this exercise.

Agreed.

Let's take $63m international revenue out of Olysio, US revenue became $291m, plug these new numbers into same formula, Sovaldi US revenue should be about $2.077B. It's tough to say what international revenue will be. Most likely US number can't be off too far, otherwise it will be a big surprise!

As to US numbers, the issue is stocking. JNJ reported 20% of its number was stocking. By using the same percentage, we are committing to a really big stocking number. That may be right, but it seems a stretch to me. That is one of the reasons that I still am using a discount.

As to international numbers, I agree that it is tough, but no tougher than stocking. Maybe a few more variables like pricing difference (anyone have the Germany or UK pricing for Oly?), but those variables could go both ways. If you do use the same percentages on non-US sales, it comes to ~$2.614B. I think that I will stick to my $2.22B for now and hope to be pleasantly surprised by a number that could be as high as $3B.