Biotech Values

[Double_Bagel]

mcbio,

You are right it is 5% for the two ALNY drugs. 5% of 2 Billion is still good money -- 100 million. TKMR has just 22 million shares. Hence the $4+ EPS if this were to happen.

The potential for these two ALNY drugs is what drove it (ALNY) from 20 last year to 120 earlier this year.

This is from the Motley Fool when they promoted ALNY at $60 last year. True they pump up numbers sometimes However, I have seen these numbers outside of Motley Fool.

TKMR at $13 with $7 in cash seems like a good deal to me.

In the past month, Alnylam has announced clinical results for two drugs that are being developed to treat diseases collectively called TTR-mediated amyloidosis (ATTR). TTR is short for transthyretin, a protein that, when misformed for hereditary reasons, builds up in tissue and causes fatal illness. In a Phase 2 study, the drug ALN-TTR02 was able to drop circulating levels of TTR by 93% in patients with a form of ATTR called familial amyloidotic polyneuropathy (FAP). The second drug, ALN-TTRsc, knocked back TTR more than 80% in healthy individuals when given by injection (rather than a more difficult intravenous infusion) and is being developed for a different ATTR called familial amyloidotic cardiomyopathy (FAC).?

Alnylam estimates there are only about 10,000 patients worldwide with FAP and over 40,000 with FAC. But companies can thrive pursuing rare diseases; take our own BioMarin Pharmaceutical (NASDAQ: BMRN). Assuming ALN-TTR02 is sold for an amount similar to Pfizer's Vyndaqel, the only other treatment for FAP, it could achieve annual sales of $500 million even with a 25% market share. Alnylam will capture much of that amount, having retained all rights outside the Asia-Pacific region. Other analysts have suggested sales will top $1 billion. And ALN-TTRsc could potentially bring in much more, particularly since there is no current treatment for FAC.?

PS: I know you sold out of ECYT a while ago as you didn't want to hold during the binary event. Now that it got a positive CHMP opinion and the stock has dropped from 33 to 18 are you looking to get back in.

PPS: What other biotechs are you looking at now after the recent bloodbath. CRIS, ARQL, DVAX, EXEL interest you at these levels? Any of the newer IPOs? AMBI, ESPR, STML etc. How about ALNY, VRTX, GILD at these levels?

Thanks. As always your input is greatly appreciated.