K... when it comes to seasonality, ohh I don't know-- whenever you're handed a swoon this large a return to normalcy seems more justified at this point ... It can't keep going down, at least not straight down-- and besides, when you look at a 1-year NFG chart you'll notice that we're now standing on the other side of the Himalayas ... fwiw, back in February of 2004 NFG hit the high of $7.63 only to see it drop to $5.06 (-33%) within a couple months, it bottomed @ $5.06 sometime in the month of March only to see it rise from the dead (again) to 6.82 (+34%) 3 months later-- in "shoulder season" no less.
I think the same thing can happen again-- so adding 30% to $6.65 (if this is truly the bottom) would take us back up to the mid eight dollar range-- which IMHO is not unreasonable considering what's around the corner.
...and we're all scared about the things we cannot see around the corner. <vbg>
FP........................................................