The Black Box

[mjk]

bear flag...

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$WTIC,uu[r,a]daclyyay[dd][pd20,2!b50!c50!b200!c200!f][vc...

big drop coming in oil IMO

bull flag...

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$INDU,uu[r,a]daclyyay[dc][pd20,2!b50!c50!a10960!f][vc60]...

big up move coming on the dow...counter the oil move IMO

interesting that oil had a similar longterm "rising wedge" to what the comp had, and just like the comp has done it broke up out of it, and then went up huge, played out the projections of the "wedge" (I call it an ascending triangle)...even backtested it a couple of times and broke back inside for a nice fake, formed what looked like could have been a h&s top, but the buying interest just got too strong...

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$WTIC,uu[r,a]waclyyay[d19980707,20060307][pd20,2!b50!f][...

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$compq,uu[e,a]waclyyay[df][pd20,2!b50!f][vc60][iub14!la1...

I see a lot of folks saying the comp is forming a h&s top now...I just see it as a pennant-like consolidation above the breakout that's relieving the overbought, next step is to play out the big ascending triangle breakout to the upside...even if we did have a fake drop back inside, below 2240...I don't see that happening though. We're so close now...once we break up from the comp consolidation, the dow is going to 11750 in a hurry...wouldn't doubt if it's there by mid april.

The process is definitely taking longer than I would have imagined, but nothing's broken...just keeps making higher highs and higher lows...the money rotation continues, going into spec tech as we speak IMO, oil related is going to suffer