Biotech Values

[DewDiligence]

…Merck's all-oral cocktail posted a 12-week cure rate of 98% in genotype 1 patients…

As previously noted (#msg-100393061), the headline number for MRK’s phase-2 results in treatment-naïve non-cirrhotic GT1 patients should be 95% (not 98%).

…leading ISI's Mark Schoenebaum to speculate that peak estimates for the drug could rise as high as $3.2 billion and Citi analyst Yaron Werber to pencil the company [MRK] in for an eventual second-place spot behind Gilead. Merck's apparent leapfrogging is in part due to convenience: Like Gilead's fixed-dose combo, the MK-5172/MK-8742 cocktail is a once-a-day treatment.

With all due respect to Mr. Schoenebaum and Mr. Werber, I think it’s grossly premature to label MRK as the #2 HCV player based on the pill count argument, which third-party payers don’t seem to care about.