Biotech Values

[DewDiligence]

Re: Goldman Sachs HCV survey

…ABBV/ENTA market share: price parity vs 10% discount vs 20% discount --> 32% vs 40% vs 50%.

Thanks for confirming that my interpretation in #msg-100315838 vis-à-vis volume share is correct.

To reiterate, the responses in GS’ survey are consistent with (and are actually a little more bullish than) my own expectations for ABBV/ENTA in GT1, which are a 38% market share at a 20-30% aggregate* price discount to GILD. (Note: My expectations pertain to the US and EU, while GS’ survey pertains only to the US.)

Physicians predicting 60% increase in capacity to treat the cumulative number of patients from current level.

This can happen only if PCPs take a significant portion of the patient load from hepatologists and gastros, so I’m somewhat skeptical of this specific survey result.

*See discussion in #msg-99174749.