[...I have over the years come to believe that the market will confound the majority...]
mike, while you present a well-reasoned position, wouldn't you think that since the market has been 'unexplicably' going up for the past two-three months, that this represents the beliefs and actions of the majority? Wouldn't you think that in such a situation, confounding the majority would mean taking a good dive in the near future when many, like you, announce the 'new' bull market? If you disagree, how do you decide who exactly represents the majority, whose actions are reflected in the prices and indices?
M_e
[in edit, I see others have picked up on a similar point--and complimented you on your posts. Please continue.]