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I struggle to get my hands around this issue. Can we assume that all the toxic debt that we know about is converted since share volumes are more reasonable? Is there a certain time limit date that they have?
Buying with every cent he has -- just like us.
Now let's hope we're all lucky!
This investment reminds me more and more of a game of Night Baseball poker --you have to stay in 'til the last card as we are all in the dark. I've stayed in this long, so let's keep turning over the cards. IMO. Hyde
Very Nice. Welcome. Hyde
To me, in the absence of any information, our only hope is to assume this cascade of shares ends at 3 billion outstanding. With all I have invested in this stock, shares @ $.001 is cheap insurance to keep my proportion of company shares as even as it was. Then we wait and see what 2016 drilling brings. It is the only hope I see. And a very slim hope this is. IMO. Hyde
Is this company still limited to issuing a total of 3 billion shares? And if so does that limit the ultimate amount of dilution that can be caused by these convertible shares? Just curious.
So purely speculation --Tho'informed by 12 years observation:
This is the most tight-lipped of companies so we will be the last to know what has gone down
SEO does not allow un-intended consequences with this stock
It is to SEOs advantage for this stock to operate under the radar
-- so he does not look to be the fat cat profiting from sweetheart deals
I would expect whoever is selling and accumulating these shares is on a tight leash -- there is some purpose to all this
I do not think ERHE are crooks -- they still have to answer to all the Nigerian little guys too so he can not tolerate to go belly up
Just sayin' over my cocktails and rose colored glasses tonight
Hyde
I like the way you think Redtxdog -- I'm still hanging in with this thing -- it's so squirily it has to be legit -- we'll see --
Happy New Year ---
So now they have $20 million plus or minus 7 cent shares to sell to someone else instead of us who passed up buying them -- is that fact a credible assessment of their value -- what do we know? If the assets have value they sell them to someone else-- if not -- they don't -- we are in the same position as before -- in the dark and at the mercy of a lucky strike in the ground.
JMO
When does the clock start on these shares for capital gains purposes -- I presume with the issue date -- in your case 28 Feb?
Hyde
Nice work oldoil -- I second your sentiments and suspect there are many similar here -- Hyde
Clearly they are still analysing the drilling data -- we know it takes time to figure out a result in the JDZ -- JMHO
May be since the JDZ is an "odd duck" entity they have a reduced negotiating position -- maybe they (Sinopec/Total/et al) are playing the three parties (JDZ/San Tome/Nigeria one against the other such as to get their best interests served. Such a negotiation would take longer to get a green light signal (consensus) and so we wait. JMO
In fairness to Marie -- it should be noted that the "cake" she referred to was the term used for the built up residue on the inside of bakers ovens of that day -- maybe there's a parallel -- just sayin'
Orderly transfer of shares seems like -- IMO
You know if someone did not have the drilling assets or other resources (FPSOs)available to proceed exploring and drilling right away in the JDZ (maybe no sooner than 2015 as I recollect them to have speculated, Gralla and Perezes without looking it up) then why be talking -- or why even confirm what you suspect might be there.
Even if they know good things are there, what good is it to get everyone (Big Oil and the politicos and the contractors) all stirred up three years before you can do anything about it -- just complicates things and reduces their maneuvering options and increases pressure on them to jump through hoops. Their silence is golden if this be the case. No comfort to us of course.
JMHO
And I appreciate your efforts.
So I found this to be pretty straight forward information from the JDZ portion of the ERHC March 15 update.
"The contracting parties and the JDA are working to arrive at mutually beneficial agreements and that takes time. As usual, ERHC will inform its shareholders when agreements are reached."
They are saying it like it is. Private company negotiations are not done publicly -- "in the sunshine".
JMO
I am right with you on this Pepsiman. The low share price keeps ERHE's asset low profile and keeps show-stopper people out of their hair while they can get their ducks in a row.
How it all works out to our benefit -- and whether it even will -- who knows. I'm betting it will. Been following this show for 8 years and to my mind these people are not crooks -- someday we'll see the method to their madness.
All IMHO
Point of clarification --
Did I miss it saying outright that Malanza was a dry hole --
Or was it just implied by not specifically mentioning Malanza with the holes where gas was found?
I guess you could say this stock is thinly traded.
My theory is our stock has been invaded by day traders and their services -- and they all could care less about fundamentals. They just follow their stochastic mo-mo rules.
Hopefully the fundamentals are about to themselves next week!!
JMO
Well said Jim Long.
Now back to disciplined waiting for the next card to be played.
JMO
I do not know the answer to your question.
But it appears that Offer also holds an additional 4 million shares in his own name that are differently held --
So if Offer controls Chrome as I have always understood -- then he controls about 85% of this stock's shares when I add up the %s given in the 10K.
Assuming he is holding on to his shares and not trading them day to day, it becomes quite clear that the day to day market price changes are not a significant indicator of much value. (Also this fact is likely a poison pill for any interest from investment firms.)
JMO
This does look to be some type orderly transfer of shares this past three days -- increased volume and no price action.
JMO
DG --
I think we hear something by the end of January/very early February -- Sinopec has stated this as a target date and I think they will owe it to the JDA and San Tomeans to release some info --- And the OKI East well should be done by then so they have no easy excuse not to make information available. (And thanks for the PM -- I can't respond privately -- my all in is about a third the size of yours.)
Hyde
Well then I hope this exception DOES NOT prove the rule!
Degen--
I find your post very solid. I can relate as I have family involvement with this investment and they think I am nuts and maybe a little malicious.
I am an investor with over 45 years experience in various stocks and various markets. I read the investing literature and am aware of the "rules". However, none of this has prevented me being all in on this stock. My ROTH is all in this stock and I have increasingly invested during my six years with an average basis in the mid .40s. I am hoping "the exception proves the rule"( whatever that means!). Anyway I can say I have done better with ERHE than I would have with the S&P index over this time period and I am happy to be green. This is actually pretty good success. But this level of return is not why I invested.
When I got into this stock my brother asked me what it was worth. Six years ago on this board it was estimated to be worth anywhere from pennies to $10-15 per share. I told him no one could know what it's worth until it was drilled.
So here we are six years later. Not much is changed. I do my ERHE DD mostly on this board but have been a student of oil investing and an oil property and oil stock investor for 30+ years. And I am all in as I said -- not good -- but reading the posts over the last six years has increasingly convinced me that oil is there -- likely in such quantities that it has more than just economic interest and this might be impacting the share price and information flow. We just don't know -- although the lack of information about this stock available in the financial press is another telltale for me.
I am still hopeful there is a chance for news sooner than March based on August statements by SINO/ADDAX saying results at end of December -- but regardless I am holding tight until I know the "rest of the story".
Merry Christmas to all you EHRE folks -- feels like we have been on some type videogame quest over this past six years -- here's hoping for a glorious finale in 2010-- we'll see.
Cheers!
Hyde
Did cc mention anything regarding the status of the block 5&6 arbitration?
You are a good man Mark. Sticks and stones .... and all that.
Thanks for what you do.
I'm thinking the excerpt below is a pretty significant positive new statement from the company -- especially as they are acting on their words. It sounds pretty confident of added money coming their way soon to me -- what they do with this good fortune is SEOs call as always.
From today's company release ...
“With considerable progress being made in the ongoing exploration campaign of our oil and gas interests in the Nigeria Sao Tome and Principe Joint Development Zone (JDZ), this is the right time to accelerate business development activities elsewhere,”
This discussion reminds me of earlier days on this board when some were discussing the SEOs bona fides and his aspirations and purposes for ERHC.
What I took away from those old posts was that SEO was in part a Nigerian Nationalist and who wanted to help his country build a robust energy infrastructure and that ERHE and Chrome and his other investments were means to this end.
As such I do not see SEO holding onto ERHC for its increasingly valuable energy income but more to using this asset as a trading chip to further his Nigerian nation-building dreams. Certainly having KNOC and Sinopec partnering with him in some way on this nation-building effort would be very helpful.
What this would all mean for us as shareholders or how we would get from here to there is hard to know.
Just my speculating on it all.
Not sure that we will have to wait on a public announcement of amounts of oil found to move the share price.
I can appreciate that it might very well take months before there is sufficient confidence in the information obtained from drilling the initial wells to publish a public report on amounts of oil found.
However, prior to published oil estimates there will be enough new information for the parties to better price this asset for sale and thus it might be more likely we hear of a buyout agreement prior to hearing formal oil discovery estimates.
JMO
You have to wonder that with 730 million shares outstanding,
and the share price being near a three year high,
that in this game of drilling chicken --
not many are.
Really quite amazing.
Long and Strong ERHE
JMO
Tryoty--
I believe you hit the nail square on the head.
JMO
I am thinking Oliphant is alluding to SEDCO finishing a hole in Block 3 -- that way he keeps us happily dreaming and speculating
Hyde
I vote yes too -- Deal before drilling.
Only speculation based on reading these boards over the years.
IMO with Oliphant bailing at this juncture and with all the players in the mix and some with the money -- it will be easier to make a deal now before the exact scope of oil discovered is known. I think agreement is a rolling deal with an initial lower base price but a large upside contingent based on what is found.
JMHO
Then Mark must mean Sinopec drills Block 2 in July
So now someone tell me why this Stock is stuck on .42 for weeks after being stuck @ .31 for weeks.
Very nonrandom behavior
Seems to me if I were crew on a GOM rig and I were asked my druthers about going to the GOG -- I might say all things being equal I'd as soon stay around home.
Now if there were monetary inducements presented then I might be willing to make this decision another way. Such negotiations might be the cause for the hold-up in closing the deal. Mere speculation of course.
I have been in this since Pioneer, accumulating shares -- I read this board daily -- (and kudos to the moderators).
IMHO something is going on, but as usual no information is out in the public sphere to understand the issues and how it will effect us. While I share the angst by some posters this weekend it seems to me that little has changed. Offor can do whatever he wishes whenever he wishes with this stock as he controls the shares. We ride his coat-tails -- always have and always will --- until the controlling blocks of shares are no longer under Offor's control. with the controlling shares it seems there might be innumerable ways he can affect a change in ownership or control without our concurrence or fore-knowledge. If he has chosen to do this through the shareholder meeting -- so be it (although there certainly seem to be risks).
So I tend to agree -- we might as well enjoy the ride since we are not and will not be steering the sled. And I do not think they are crooks -- just behind the scenes players -- there's a difference.
IMHO Hyde