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Money losing companies with significant debt and no clear trajectory to reach breakeven before they run out of cash. There's many of them. The assumption is that these companies will eventually be unable to raise more cash and go bankrupt. Many will. Most of these companies didn't even exist before the ZIRP era and have never had to face an environment like this. Foley has totally mismanaged capital allocation. The shotgun share sale earlier this year after saying they were funded to breakeven only increased investor distrust in management.
Despite Foley's follies there's only so long that unscrupulous CosmeticMDs can hide the fact that they're giving their patients inferior products. The biggest risk to Daxxify is that a truly better toxin (not a gimmick like double dose Jeuveau) emerges in the next few years.
What's the largest stock in the Russell 2000? Why don't you look it up and check their revenue growth. That's a moronic comparison. This market has punished money losers and rewarded money makers. If you believe CosmeticMD that Daxxify "doesn't work" then what are you still doing here? I'm not recommending you or anybody else to buy or not buy the stock. The fact remains that Daxxify is the best toxin on the market and CosmeticMD is a proven liar.
Is this what you call "laying out the bear case" ...
This post was deleted, not sure if by the mods or by the degenerate doctor himself. Why would an actual doctor put so much effort into spreading lies about Daxxify? To many people here the answer is patently obvious.
In my opinion Foley's biggest folly was thinking the industry would welcome a better product with open arms. Foley failed to anticipate and properly plan for the inevitable backlash from the existing large and well funded players and their unscrupulous CosmeticMD stooges.
We can expect a new screed from the doctor today.
The market obviously doesn't believe they can hit the guidance. The current trajectory makes it look pretty difficult. I'm skeptical they can do it. I'm concerned that a recession could derail their progress, although there's an argument to be made that Revance could gain more share in such a scenario as their products offer better value. Regardless, despite what the clown accounts on this board (the ones who will likely tag this post with a clown emoji) want you to believe, Daxxify is by far the best toxin currently on the market. It's likely we will see more of an S-curve pickup in adoption as more people become aware of Daxxify's superiority. Obviously there are a lot of people who want to prevent that. Some post right here on this board. The biggest risk to Revance's long term success is that an even better toxin emerges, and Foley's stumbles have cost them a lot of time to grow large enough to survive that.
A bet on RVNC stock now is mainly a bet on whether a better toxin will come to market before Revance can fix their balance sheet. There is also a growing risk that CosmeticMD's benefactors will start a damaging price war as their market share declines. However, Daxxify will continue to take share from the existing toxins. That's inevitable. As noted by an analyst on the call, Daxxify ranks last in awareness—but the buzz on social media has been growing. Daxxify is simply a better product and also a better name than Jeuveau—although I expect both to continue to gain share from Botox for now.
I expect RVNC to remain highly sensitive to interest rates until there's more evidence that their guidance will be met. Expectations have certainly been reset now, so if Revance can just meet or exceed their guidance for revenue and expenses for 2024 I expect the stock to be considerably higher by the end of the year.
Based on prices advertised on social media, Daxxify is still priced higher than Botox (assuming 2-to-1 units) in most practices offering it.
Don't sleep on the therapeutic payer progress. As noted on the call, some commercial payers will cover Daxxify in place of Botox for any therapeutic indication. Unlike in aesthetics where many CosmeticMDs are motivated by kickbacks from Galderma or Abbvie to cover their alimony payments, in therapeutics the doctors and payers are incentivized to provide patients the best treatment at the best price—which when it comes to neurotoxins is clearly Daxxify.
Uh huh. Daxxify units did better QoQ than Jeuveau. You're not fooling anybody anymore about your intentions here. For example, this intentionally misleading one liner you just posted:
EOLS doesn't have filler sales which suffer from worse seasonality. Daxxify grew units QoQ but revenue was impacted by the coupon. It looks like Jeuveau was down slightly on units QoQ.
Yes, that's expenses. That's good.
I guess you've never heard of seasonality and don't know that Q1 is the weakest quarter of the year. 🤦
It was an OK quarter considering. The Daxxify unit and account growth is encouraging.
Many of the practices offering Daxxify do heavily market that it is vegan. It's a strong selling point and Revance should definitely lean into it. However I think the use of the word "safe" or any allusion to these types of incidents is a very bad idea.
Where are all the "market is never wrong" folks today. 🤣
Respectfully I disagree. I used to respect jbog as well but he's since turned into clown who spins everything about RVNC as bearish. See, he told you himself. He was burned by the stock and now he hates the company. I think that's juvenile and emotional and not how a seasoned investor aspires to behave. Time will tell if he was right or just misguided.
You're pathetic jbog. Obviously that was wrong and I did buy some shares on the way down, but it's de minimis compared to the huge gains I've already realized over the years. Focus on this part of my message:
$10? Jbog, I sold a bunch of shares at $37 last year. I have made a huge amount of money on RVNC since I first owned it in 2016. Revance has been a huge money maker for those who have traded it at the right time. Evolus? Not so much. Yes I still own shares that are underwater, but it's house money. I have a negative trade-adjusted cost basis. Most people here are more concerned with whether the current share price represents a buying opportunity for future gains than whether or not they should have done something differently in the past. You were clearly burned by RVNC and now you've turned into a right RVNCQ clown who spins everything as bearish. If you're so negative why don't you short it?
The feeling is mutual iwfal. Ian is clearly a liar since he just outright lied about what Dew posted on the other board. I didn't think you were stupid but your inability to understand the difference has me second guessing that. You were also naive about double dose Jeuveau.
You are a liar and a loser Ian. I've known that for a while but now everyone can see it. You're even more unhinged than CosmeticMD, who at least is motivated by kickbacks from Galderma. What's your motive? You seem to be angry at Dew because you lost money.
I bet this WorstLuck person (who btw is the only person on this site I have muted) was buying ZM and DOCU in 2020 because "the market must be right." 😂
Jbog has become a complete clown.
Evolus licenses a toxin. They have no therapeutic program. They launched years before Daxxify. To compare expenses now is completely disingenuous. It's true Revance has overspent but they can and will cut expenses. If 3 years from now the situation hasn't changed then you will have been right—I doubt it.
Meanwhile, Daxxify is starting to blow up on social media.
"Daxxify is the best neurotoxin and I recommend it to all my patients."
This is, of course, what a doctor is supposed to do. Be knowledgeable and recommend the best option to their patients. Contrast that with what some unscrupulous CosmeticMDs are doing: keeping the best product away from their patients while taking kickbacks from Galderma or Abbvie. We won't see that type of rent seeking behavior in therapeutics.
Honestly your story has always been suspect. You have the information provided here to know that Daxxify is the best toxin when injected properly and can make a practice more money so you should be enthusiastically offering it. You only showed up on this board after Daxxify was approved and have shown at times a complete lack of understanding about toxin injection. You claim to own practices but there's no way to verify that. I can't prove it's false either but frankly I think you're not truthful and have ulterior motives.
That explains why Galderma shill and perpetual loser CosmeticMD was working overtime today to tag my posts with clown emojis. The majority of patients who try Daxxify with a skilled injector stick with it. That's bad news for those desperate to maintain the status quo.
Great post soma! In the hands of "authoritative and expert injectors" Daxxify is clearly the best toxin on the market. This of course dovetails with what I've seen on social media and heard from my own contacts. Unskilled/unscrupulous CosmeticMDs/PAs/nurses who "couldn't quite figure it out" or "didn't want to take the time and effort to" figure it out lest they lose their kickbacks have been less enthusiastic about Daxxify. I am not a practice owner myself.
Why is RIVN down? Because their expenses have grown faster than their revenue. Because they're a newcomer in an industry with established brand heavyweights. Because the market is unsure if they can become profitable before they go bankrupt in a fearful interest rate environment. But if you've been following the story closely you know that their products are excellent—some of the best available—in a business with an increasing TAM. It sounds a lot like another stock we talk about frequently here, which might be why their YTD charts are nearly identical.
I never said RVNC is down because of interest rates and inflation. Revance is down because they're a loss making company and they've grown expenses faster than revenues. The market has turned extremely negative on companies like that and punished them unduly on days where rates have moved higher. RVNC is essentially priced for bankruptcy at this point, as is RIVN, and many other companies, some of whom will go bankrupt, and many of whom will not and the market will have been wrong about.
Don't be ridiculous. I already posted about one, except they have billions in cash.
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=174304081
There are dozens or hundreds of comparisons just like this. RIVN makes fine products but they're unprofitable and their pathway to profitability is uncertain—not something people want to own in this interest rate environment. I don't own that stock but I've been looking for an entry point as I expect them to survive and they could easily be worth 10x in 10 years—but Rivian is far more likely than Revance to go bankrupt given the capital intensive nature of their business.
You seem to be very naive and unaware about the movement of interest rates and inflation or that the exact same thing happening to RVNC is happening to many other loss-making companies right now. Some of these companies will go bankrupt but many won't. Market irrationality always lasts longer than you think but it doesn't last forever.
You've really worked yourself into a corner. RVNC has 6 months with 2 points of improvement. EOLS has 6 months with 1 point improvement. I know you got burned on RVNC but it's a shame you've turned into a RVNCQ clown who jumps on every opportunity to spread FUD.
Clearly the EOLS data was meant to convince unsophisticated CosmetcMDs and not investors.
EOLS: looks like the market is not as dumb as jbog 🤣
It's a 1 point improvement and 150 patients. It's a farce. As a RVNC shareholder there are plenty of things to worry about but double dose Jeuveau is near the bottom of the list.
One point improvement lol. I'm sure some unscrupulous CosmeticMDs will be happy to run with this deceit.