Revance Therapeutics Inc (RVNC)

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A bet on RVNC stock now is mainly a bet on whether a better toxin will come to market before Revance can fix their balance sheet. There is also a growing risk that CosmeticMD's benefactors will start a damaging price war as their market share declines. However, Daxxify will continue to take share from the existing toxins. That's inevitable. As noted by an analyst on the call, Daxxify ranks last in awareness—but the buzz on social media has been growing. Daxxify is simply a better product and also a better name than Jeuveau—although I expect both to continue to gain share from Botox for now.

I expect RVNC to remain highly sensitive to interest rates until there's more evidence that their guidance will be met. Expectations have certainly been reset now, so if Revance can just meet or exceed their guidance for revenue and expenses for 2024 I expect the stock to be considerably higher by the end of the year.