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"Transceiver Units". That's what the slides say and that's what the projections were for.
7900 of them. Everyone knows Lightwave doesn't sell transceivers, but the projection is for transceiver sales containing their modulations. Everyone knows this but you refuse to acknowledge it. Can't help that...
Newcomers don't trust me or proto. Look it up for yourself. It's easy to prove I'm right about this.
In fact I'll do it for you:
Proto posts excactly the way Mr Marcelli would post if he had the opportunity - imo.
Mr Marcelli touted commercialization every year in the 10k for a decade. Same thing Proto does.
Mr Marelli touts very large customers for over a decade and massive revenues.. Same thing Proto does.
Mr Marcelli touts institutional interest in Lightwave. Same thing Proto does.
Mr Marcelli touts a big transceiver company working diligently with Lightave. Same thing Proto does.
Unfortunately, Mr Marcelli has very little credibility with investors anymore, but he does have plenty of money in his pockets it would appear...thanks to those that believe him.
He must really love Proto.
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7900 came from Dr Lebby at 20:45 here:
The really big moves in stocks happen when the market is convinced there will be a series of very big announcements in the very short term.
That's what happened in 2021.
This is 2024 and after the ASM last week it looks like the odds of that are now fairly low.
The idea that the market is going to reward a company because it has what some think is the best technology for a large market is a long term hold idea and that doesn't move markets. Thats why the stock oscillated between .50 and $1.50 for over a decade and it's why the price continues to slide down after the 2021 hopes were not met.
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It’s possible, but when he says 6 to 9 more months for them to get more statistics because “that’s what they want to see”, And when he he refuses to confirm KCC’s question about whether we will hear in 2024 whether they have even made a prototype together yet, it’s also quite possible we won’t hear anything at all about a transceiver partner in 2024.
Aimless blade you accused me of circularity in my argument regarding timelines. Rather than spend a post about it here, go back to my final answer yesterday where I edited and put in a reply to you on the last paragraph. Your viewpoint is simply wrong.
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AMF News was not a surprise. And the fact that he put it out the day before ASM also was not a surprise.
Of course they’re going to pick a foundry that is photonics friendly. They found one and they are paying them We’ll see how it goes.
But its certainly not Intel or GFS. That would’ve been a lot better.
Thanks very much HS! eom.
he's getting better - this year I feel he was far more honest about the status than ever before - but he certainly COULD have answered the question about whether they can fill an order TODAY and whether they can produce 25 wafers at both high yield and < 1 volt and whether they even had a prototype yet with a transceiver company - all questions about their current status which are helpful for shareholders determining a timeline. But he didn't answer those questions. It's pretty obvious the answer is NO to all of those questions.
So, while he can't predict very well at all, he is still being evasive and I consider that to be a form of leading shareholders on.
But prior to this year's ASM he absolutely misled people about timelines when he said they were "on track" and many other things I've mentioned before, some of which PolymerPaul just listed. It now really looks like 7900 transceiver units stated in ASM 2023 was just pulled out of thin air to give shareholders something to hold onto for the next 18 months. If he had at least previously said "it's hard to predict" and explained the reasons why like he did this year then that would have been more forgivable..but shareholders are at his mercy.
I can't reply as I"ve reached my limit but I see your response and can only say that he is making it clear that things will take longer and yes I saw that long before he admitted it. I'm not sure they will EVER iron out the kinks enough to get the industry to invest, but it was pretty clear to me that he was pulling the wool over investors eyes when he continually missed his own goals and timelines and tried to manipulate them in various ways that were quite obvious to unbiased people.
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A CEO should talk about timeline to commercialization - if a friend of yours came to you and asked you if you would financially contribute to a business idea of his - wouldn't you want to know how what the timeline to commercialization is - when do sales begin and when to expect profitability?
Why should this be any different?
You are suggesting that Dr Lebby keep the true timeline a secret when shareholders don't really care about the science when it comes right down to it. It's all about return on investment.
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Painful/truthfull answers from Dr Lebby at ASM:
Walter and the longs are feeding some nice dreamy answers Dr Lebby gave and I'll agree that they are doing some good work and trying to make a major difference and just maybe they will get their foot in the door some day. But FOR NOW, check out the answers given by Dr Lebby at the ASM:
1. Point blank question:
hey Helter, where do you get the pre-market top gainers from, if you don't mind me asking? TIA
This is ripe for a Kerrisdale update or SA article after the latest ASM last week.
Now that the company has become a little more honest about where things really stand, it is an opportunity for the market to weigh in more fully and accurately on how solid it thinks the story is or isn’t.
Scope, announcing yields, consistency results, numbers of wafers, numbers of modulators, numbers of foundries and andwering KCCs basic questions — none of that is going to help out a competitor if the reality is a competitor can’t even tiuch the results because they don’t have good enough materials.
Supposedly, they are years ahead and patent protected. Your objection rings hollow. And now Proto is saying that “under construction“ means “optimizing”.
Too funny. The Dreaming and Obfuscation continues…
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And yet another non-answer from a long, who apparently gets dizzy when I use logic
And Proto – what is under construction? Dr. Lebby said under construction.. Can you both be ready to go to market and still be under construction?
It’s really a simple question
Protel, if Jim Marcelli himself waa able to post on this board, I think he’d post exactly the way you do. 10 years in a row deal any day, $2.6 million bonus justified. Don’t question anything.
Newcomers, so many have been fooled by this constant narrative year after year that the company has had, and that Proto amplifies and distorts. Don’t let them dupe you.
The shareholder meeting last week is a must watch for every newcomer. You’ll get the true picture there. And not here from the longs who cherry pick only the good stuff.
It’s the reason the market sold off immediately. Some more people finally realized this is going to take longer than they thought… Which is always the case here…
What would it matter? If lightwave has solutions that no one else can offer then what would it matter if they share what those solutions are?
Dr. Lebby has to walk a tight rope now between keeping shareholder support going, and lowering expectations away from the “deals any day” narrative that he himself created on December 4
One way to do that would be to share those solutions with his own shareholders.
For those that say they are ready, how would you explain his saying the PIC is “Under construction”? How can you both be ready and still be under construction?
Another example of the tight rope he walks has to do with the share price. On the one hand, he says he doesn’t care about the share price so the shareholders again reset their expectations, and then a few weeks later, he says the share prices is undervalued.
The entire new theme is one of keeping the carrot dangling while taking the heat off of himself for failing to deliver a deal. He’s kind of talking out of both sides of his mouth.
What are the wafers? Good question that Dr Lebby could have answered. I don’t give a crap what was said during the lab tour. That’s all hearsay. That’s all nonpublic information.
While the wafers seem like an important and promising next step, why didn’t Dr. Lebby give a comprehensive summary about the wafers during the presentation? How many wafers what kind of yields what were the problems he was saying they are most worried about but didn’t expound on? What stages are they in with providing wafers to others to examine?
If Everything is so dreamy and their technology is clearly the best, then why not open up and tell us more?
The big message of ASM 2024 was this: “
Timelines have shifted
Timelines have shifted
Timelines have shifted
We can’t really tell you when we expect to commercialize this technology anymore, but the industry is paying attention.”
Exactly. “We’ve got what the industry wants” is not true. If they had it today and the industry wanted it today, we would have a deal announcement today. The whole tone reads to me that they are not close to any final deal announcement, but they are finally getting the attention of some people to do some testing, which is keeping their employees in the labs happy and busy. That’s a long ways from having any kind of a deal
Many here focus only on the positive sounding statements, and refuse to take into account everything else that is said, but clearly Dr. Lebby was not saying they are ready today or that the industry is ready today. Demos and trials appear to be in the earliest stages at best.
I think you’re exactly right that this is likely to be dead money for the next year. Who’s gonna announce a deal when they’re still at best sampling the tech to find out if it really is what they want and can trust to work for an entire generation ?
Dr. Lebby himself said literally that TFLN is a threat, when he was asked about the competition.
We have have positive affirmations from the leading hyper scalars – Google, Amazon, Microsoft, Meta about TFLN, But none about per Lightwave’s polymer.
And Dr. Lebby seemed pleased to point out that the Korean chips act included $10 million for EOP. That’s chicken feed in an industry of the size. Far more money has gone into the development of TFLN. And far more industry involvement.
Even if EOP is a better material, it is clear that the industry doesn’t seem to recognize that at this point in time. Some here believe EOP will burst on the scene, but does the reality really support that picture at all? No. The reality supports this is being a long drawn out process that the industry really doesn’t even want to have to acknowledge. So we’ll see how quickly it gets adopted.
There is a reason Dr. Lebby still can’t get a transceiver company to create a demo to showcase a viable working product. There is a reason that his projection for transceiver sales of 7900 units by year end 2024 just disappeared from his entire presentation last week.
This isn’t unjustified FUD. We’ll see how it goes. But no, I’m certainly not insane for noticing these things.
Longs know about Protos company “facts”but newcomers don’t. I don’t want a single newcomer to be duped by the things proto continues to say in error.
Proto wants to try and tell everyone that the timelines have not shifted when everyone here knows that they have. I don’t want newcomers to be duped by him once again
It’s unconscionable.
Newcomers, everyone here knows Dr Lebby said transceiver units. 7900 expected in 2024. The 19 minute marker slide last year literally said transceiver units. When he was talking about unit sales last year, he literally was talking about transceiver units.
He no longer is saying that. Dr. Lebby absolutely changed the timelines here. He “reset expectations” just like he said he would. Everyone but Proto seems to have noticed. He had nothing to say about sales this year. People were hoping not just for more unit sales info but for revenue projections. They were very disappointed to get neither. That’s a primary reason why the price immediately sunk after the ASM.
Everyone here knows lightwave doesn’t sell transceivers. Dr. Lebby was saying to expect lightwaves polymer modulators to be part of 7900 transceiver units sold by the end of this year.
Proto is changing the story. Proto is changing the narrative. Proto doesn’t want you to know the truth. Proto doesn’t want anyone to focus on the transceiver companies anymore. He wants to push the narrative of sales of individual modular devices. But there’s not even a need for any interpretation. The slide laat year literally says transceiver units.
Every long here should call Proto out on this deception. I wish I could say I can’t even believe I’m having to say any of this, but this is par for the course here. Proto expected a deal in 2012 when he came here, he projected $61 million in revenue in 2017, on and on. The nonsense needs to stop. Too many people have been duped for too long
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HIlarious, Proto. Everyone here knows Dr Lebby said in 2023 ASM that he was projecting sales of 7900 TRANSCEIVER UNITS that contain Lightwwave modulators by the end of 2024.
The very fact that he said nothing about this in ASM 2024 - a full year later when that was THE BIG ITEM OF 2023 speak volumes.
Why wouldn't he repeat it if that is going to happen? Yes, you can certainly argue that omitting it is not the same as outright confirming that it won't happen - but most people are smarter than that.
I hope noone else gets duped by your misleading info. Here's the proof at minute 19:
ok, good luck with your purchase!
Last for now - I challenge you to watch minutes 6-20 of the 2021 ASM - TWICE.
This from the "roadmap guru"?
Then get back to me and say 'No one has been misled'.
30 minutes that might save you a fortune:
"nothing but progress" means you are saying you haven't seen the misleading comments and manipulation by the cut and pastes and by the company.
Those misleading comments and manipulation are - for me - the exact things that suggest they won't succeed...if you really have something great there should be no need to mislead people about it...instead of using a pump and dump financing method you get a serious private investor so you don't have to mislead retail shareholders about timelines..
You won't see what you don't look for...so all I can say is...
Good luck to you.
Not really: Cut and pastes that say they have X PDKs already in place imo is false and therefore dupes anyone who takes them at face value.
Cut and pastes that say Google gave a shoutout to LWLG and even included their own slide dupes those who believe it.
Cut and pastes that got Bard AI to say Lightwave is partnering with the largest Foundries in the world duped those who bought into the nonsense.
Glowing appeals to institutions that own Lightwave dupes others who think they are following smart researchers, especially when the facts show the complete opposite.
And as for the company, I think the ASM 2021 strong messaging about being ready for manufacturing with multiple foundries to partner for mass commercialization - implying a 2021 date - were absolutely an attempt to get to the Nasdaq through deception.
I also think the Dec 2023 shareholder letter was an attempt to stop the cratering stock price by leading investors to expect something big short term
Most of the company dupes are regarding timelines - to keep the carrot dangling right in front of shareholders...You know the list - 10 years in a row saying to expect commercialization that year, the partnership deal that never came in 2022, the increased space that didn't happen for another 8 months, the 7900 transceiver units in 2024. THe goal has always been to dupe shareholders into thinking things are further along than they really are - because they gotta have the funding each year - the 'commercial acceptance' deal that the company still refuses to explain to shareholders, the 'world class results' from plasmonic world records and now from 200gbs demo at OFC. It goes on and on..
But now in 2024 when it is clear things are moving slower we get a new one: We are working with Tier1s! That explains why things are taking longer but the duped keep hanging on because they think the deal will be bigger and ubiquity will come faster! It's always something..
Why not a small transceiver company that is 'friendly' working with a small foundry that is friendly (AMF)? Why not sell much sooner to the smaller data companies now and FORCE THE HAND of ones that are a bit larger which will then force the hand of some that are even larger until finally the biggest HAVE to adopt it?
Because: they just aren't there yet... reality is that shareholders have been duped for 15 years...this year is not that much different although we do have a 're-set' for 6-12 months or so since the rubber has met the road..they had no other choice but to say what they said...note that the AMF PR still came out the day before ASM -- you don't see manipulation of emotions there?
Newcomers need counter-viewpoints to the misleading posts about the company and its prospects that dominate this board, so I likely won't be going away.
If the positives were posted in an honest way that would be far better than what we see with the daily cut and pastes, which contain verifiable mistruths and exaggerations and which don't make corrections to them when they are exposed..
THAT'S the reason newcomers may appreciate some help here. It is not fair to them to be duped like that.
Enough people have already been duped.
Reality.
More hilarity from Marco:
More hilarity: "future looks bright" No, the future looks as blurry as ever because the 'granularity' was not given,
BUT he did at least admit to certain specific issues slowing things down such as:
*Oxygen (did I hear that right) on the 'back end'.
*Unspecified 'other things' they are more worried about than poling (which they say is not really an issue anymore)
*Need to understand failure mechanisms
*Continuing insistence on 'lifetime results'.
*Existing infrastructure hanging on as tightly as they can to not change.
*EOP support is non--existent in the 2 major Chips Acts. Dr Lebby's excitement at a paltry $10m in Chips Act funding in Korea shows how little attention the industry is giving it...Dr Lebby himself said that polymers have a 'bad rap' in the industry.. Combine that with the desire to extend the existing technology as far as possible and you see the reality of the situation: THIS IS A MAJOR UPHILL CLIMB EVEN IF ALL THE BUGS CAN GET WORKED OUT
The new slides and the commentary in the q&a tell the simple reality that things are pushed out at least a year beyond what investors had thought.
Reality
It isn't a shoutout to LWLG, and it isn't the same picture. More funny papers from Proto.
More hilarity:
Some longs don’t seem to care that timelines have been pushed back. And that’s fine.
Let’s just not pretend that it didn’t happen.
Reality
Hilarious:
Because those are off-topic posts, And I don’t want to risk getting restricted again
I can say the same about you.
Your username isn’t your real name. So what? If I shouldn’t care about yours why should you care about mine?
The fact remains, I never tried to misled anybody about who i am or about Lightwave Logic. And all that really matters is the latter.
My track record shows that those who interpret me as being manipulative and deceitful have been wrong all along.
My goal here always has been to figure out what is true and real and not let dreams cloud my judgment
It’s kind of like a giant chess game. They say Proto is a grandmaster… Ha ha.
Predictions I made on on Feb 9:
The next 3-4 months will be shocking imo.
I'm 90% confident that many of the following will happen, or should I say NOT happen:
1. Re Dec 4 letter - there will be no announcement of a tech transfer with a foundry, but may be some LOI that sounds good but has no clear timeline.
2. Early March the 10k comes out which shows at best the $50,000 in revenues from the one-off modulators using Perk agreement. That will confirm the very low demand after 9 months, which brings into question how straightforward the company was in claiming "commercial acceptance" last year.
3. OFC will come and go without any external validation that Lightwave's polymer reliability has been proven. Andy will not confirm it, and Lightwave will not make any definitive statement that satisfies the industry.
4. OFC will come and go without an announcement of a transceiver using Lightwave's modulator breakthrough. The transceiver company isn't ready to take that step. There may be some kind of half-prototype or "this is how it will work" display.
5. April will be a long month as the cumulative effect of #1-4 sinks in with shareholders and the best they hope for is a repeat of another agreement like last year. Investors will start to demand accountability with regard to Foundry work. Some long timers will become LIVID as the price drops into the 2s. Institutional selling will become a major threat..
6. April-May: shareholders may get an announcement from a small forward-looking photonics oriented foundry of some kind of partnership with Lightwave, but it will be very vague in details.
7. May: There may be confirmation that GFS is testing the perkamine/Ayar combination, but without any timeline for going into production. This may happen at ASM. ASM will be a repeat of last year -same projections for the year.
8. June: Investors will try hard to keep a happy face through all of the above, but the market likely will reflect the realization that last year shareholders were given a lump of coal instead of a gold nugget. They will start to ask what the people in the new space are doing.
9. August: Investors will anxiously await a transceiver prototype announcement that doesn't come. KCC will become "worried" but won't say so.
10. Dec 31, 2024. Investors will claim 7900 transceivers have been shipped out with Lightwave Perk since Dr Lebby said it would happen, but none of them will really believe it. The stock will hit a 52 week low despite the fact that Jim Marcelli resigned during the year.
The stock price is determined by the people who are buying or selling the stock at any given time .
Repeat: The stock price is determined by the people who are buying or selling the stock at any given time.
That means longs or shorts who are holding don't affect the price. This is what so many don't seem to understand. But Proto understands. Believe me. He gets that.
Many things go into the decision to buy or sell on any given day but the DIRECTION on any given day - is going to be determined whenever there is a CHANGE IN PESPECTIVE.
The 2024 ASM created a major change in perspective. Things were said that were never said before. Important things. And the slides were changed..
Tech investing IS all about potential but that includes the potential to make money soon. That's the market that now exists in the US of A.
What is your evidence for manipulation? I have not seen any.
The stock price went nuts on speculation and it has dropped on reality. This happens time and again.
You seem convinced that passive index funds are behind the manipulation - which makes zero sense to me - so where is your evidence for this manipulation? I don't want generic scary-sounding conspiracy-oriented articles about "dark pools" and such - I'm asking for some direct evidence affecting LWLG?
Do you realize the stock has one of the highest valuations of all pre-commercial companies in the entire market?
In light of that fact, why do you continue to tell everyone there is manipulation?
I really don't get your mindset. I'm willing to hop on board with you if you just can provide some kind of rational argument that is supported by evidence.
tia
interest seems to have dipped for the short term at least..today may be interesting