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The shorting of AXON will begin in about two weeks when the IPO lockup period expires. Where will those investors who bought into AXON IPO for the ALZ. indication go if they sell AXON?
True hedge funds as opposed to short speculators like to have a pair trade to neutralize overall market risk. Short VW long BMW ect. Or short Oil Company X stock while long it's bonds. These types on pair trades are usually kept on for the length of time of the perceived market place advantage in this case phase 2/3 duration of the competing drug candidate.
People often confuse money managing hedge funds with speculating trading firms lumping them together as "Hedges"
Both have sophisticated methods but trading firms are characterized as "hot money" opportunists while hedge funds are the opposite as the goal is to sacrifice some potential profit to maximize preservation of capital of wealthy individuals and institutions. Hedge funds want to stay rich Trading firms are trying to get richer. One takes the position of the House in a casino the Traders are the gamblers. Of course gamblers will cheat if they can.
Wow Too Tall! Fantastically brilliant post. Quoting Robert Burns while channeling Vince Lombardi with great ideas well expressed. Hail the Meastro!
Great reply and I agree 100%. The Chris has stated that it is his intent is to partner with BP company for Ph3 and I trust him to make the right strategic and tactical decisions. However my point is after completion of the original 26 weeks for the whole cohort of 30 subjects that a secondary offering would be another Avenue to take if the right deal could not be struck with a BP JV partner. In that case AVXL would retain the complete rights and instead licence marketing rights on FDA approval at vastly better terms. Greater risk but much greater rewards.
I see several catalysts which would make this a favored stratagem. One, fast track by the FDA would validate AVXL in the eyes of major market participants greatly increasing PPS. Two, something I have not heard discussed and have not fully evaluated, but given the importance of this indication a grant from National Institutes for Health to at least partially fund Phase 3 for Alzhemers might be a real possibility. This might be "pollitically correct" thing to do if the main stream media catches on to A2-73 potential. Third, a "market" realization of the true value of AVXL pushing the market cap to closer to the market cap of AXON. Again, a real possibility after completion of 26 weeks for the full cohort, if the final results are as promising as shown so far. In that case a secondary offering of even 200 million USD should be well received and might be a better course long term for AVXL.
I do want to emphasis that I believe we will have a beneficial JV with a BP partner and maybe quite soon that being the course our CEO has decided on. So far "the Chris" has under promised and over delivered. Development has proceeded ahead of schedule and been better than hoped. However, I am of the firm belief that AVXL can develop A2-73 itself, and quite well.
Thank you for your comment, much appreciated as are all of your posts.
When will AVXL get Wirehouse coverage? This is a question for the everyone with any thoughts. That could be a major catalyst for AVXL. AXON has BUY reccomndations from major Wirehouses JPM, Robert Baird, Jeffries ect all with a buy. Why? Because they were underwriters for the IPO or distributors of IPO shares. The only other rating I see for AXON IS A SELL RECOMMENDATION from a non Wirehouse firm. That might explain the great disparity between the market caps of AVXL and AXON. AXON IPO was actively marketed by these big Wirehouse firms!
I see AXON market cap getting a haircut after the lockup period expiration.
I see AVXL getting Wirehouse coverage under one of following situations. 1. Accumulation by a Wirehouse and/or a major institutions being advised by the a Wirehouse. Then when they are finished and want to distribute some back to retail they come out with buy rating. 2. Market cap of AVXL reaches 1 billion therefore rating coverage. 3. Most likely and soonest would be a secondary offering underwritten by a Wirehouse. Who of course would rate AVXL a buy.
A secondary would mostly be priced at 50d MA when current price exceeds 50d MA by an amount that would be great enough to be an incentive to those purchaser's of the secondary shares.
What usually happens to the price of the stock when secondary is announced? It could fall below the secondary offer price. Then recover to at or above in a matter of a week or two. Which give confident and informed retail investors a chance to make additions at below the price paid buy those institutions purchasing the secondary shares and then have those purchased shares quickly inflate in price as shock subsides and investors realize that a secondary offering is validation and confirmation of the value of the company especially when the offering is fully exercised in the initial amount and the amount is conditional excess shares to meet the demand. Therefore a well received and executed secondary offering while being a minor dilution would be very positive in perception of the company as well as best way to raise capital other than a partnership.
So do not be afraid of the big wave or steep mountain just know what usually happens in those situations so one can surf it or ski it.
Two antidotial cases in point. TNXP and ANTH. Tonix&Anthera both clinical stage small cap biotechnology companies. Both recently in last six months and fairly close in time did secondaries priced both at exactly $7.50. I was long both and watched Level 2 all day everyday babysitting them. They both behaved as a stated above and both recovered. I was able to accumulate more below the secondary offer price. Both were doing OK afterwards and rose above the secondary price within a few weeks. Of course not long after that Martin S crashed the sector with his price gouging as Mrs. CLINTON ceased on it.
But these are just antidotes not a statistic on how stocks behave during and after a secondary offering.
I want to see all the longs here WIN.
The keys to WINNING are confidence and preparation. Those of us that have done DD are confident. Let us prepare each other for the games yet to come. We know and should hope that at some point there will be a secondary offering of common stock.
Is anyone has statistics or studies in how stocks especially biotechnology cos. behave during a secondary offering please share it with us now. The secondary should not happen until the stock near $8 handle or more but it could be in the works presently.
Please share your thoughts. Everyone on this important subject that has not been explored enough here.
I do not post often but I read every post everyday and I do appreciate in imput from everyone here.
God Bless you all and your families. Happy Thanksgiving.
I suspect what happened with KBIO was Martin S bought up practically the whole float and ran the stock up artificially with his HFT servers and traders. Those caught short likely had to cover by buying shares from him. We do not want a criminal like that around. He plays the game well and cheats. Having so many he could buy and sell from himself taking the price where ever he wanted.
AVXL will be susceptible to those games until M. Cap is substantially increased and forward split.
Problem with trading this stock is never know when it will have an explosive move up or down so I just buy dips and hold. I will not sell a portion until we come to a binary event which will make or break as in results from phase 3 trial.
This PR. This morning may be front running the news of a BP partner any day now. So if partner for Epilepsy people will not scratch head.Also good to remind investors this is a platform drug for 3 or 4 indications.
Fresh PR 6am Anavex to report Epilepsy results at upcoming meeting of Epilepsy Foundation
Because of FINRA. REGULATIONS can not say too much on 3 party regarding forward looking statements. Would not be proper to say we met with the FDA they loved our data and green lighted us for Ph3. Just say moving forward. The market read that as FDA liked the data. This was not a OK to go to Phase III after completion of Phase 2 this was OK to go earlier and confirmed company had good results interim in Phase 2 and trial was well designed. Good enough to start Phase 3 before finishing Phase 2. Read between the lines this was huge.
THIS RALLY HAS LEGS! Powerful reversal approx 10 days of volume in one day. One would expect that several institutions were buying and might be the buy and hold types not the flippers. If they hold a greater percentage of the float it might give the stock some solid support. That tall candle completely engulfed the price action and volume action of 4 trading days. Now we are trading at pre split levels before the confirmation of the July 22 results and before the FDA OK for the next trial. Essentially The FDA said we have seen enough data from the ongoing Ph2 to say it was a success so now time to begin the pivotal Ph2/3 trial.
Technically because of the volume and fundamentally because of the recent continued success in advancing the development . This rally has legs and we should see a higher trading range in just a few days. $8 to 10. If there is a high volume follow on Thurs and Friday it would confirm this move and put AVXL once again at a whole new valuation level.
I suspect there are professional research reports in the hands of the institutions now. I further suspect that the FDA and NIH are excited at these excellent Ph2 results.
AVXL looks like a clear winner to me and I will buy more at every opportunity.
This is our time. The company men and women are the brilliant You are the brave.
TOB. YOU ARE OF THE BRILLANT. I am proud be be along with you my brother. This is our time these are our strong investors.
Why do we have #AVXLarmy? We will fight F. THE M9B AND SHORTS
Yes Amigos. This is it. These short attacks will not last. We decided as a people to advance science. The posts from long time longs confirms that they are the bulwarg. Long term stock holders are the most informed . I salute the Bulwarg. #AVXLarmy
Remember the words of JFK we will endure any hardship to ensure freedom. Abe Lincoln JFK Who will fight organised crime? We are GI Joe Sixpack we will fight.
We will turn the tide of WAR! We decided to stand against tyranny #AVXLarmy Now we face a determined yet demoralized enemy. We will in the words of JFK suffer any hardship any challenge to win in the end. This is still the American Century We speak the truth and defend freedom to the last man.
If 1% of potential reached fortune. If 200% go figure. GiurNoir=JFinDallas. We are in a battleground stock. No doubt. Are we targeted by the mob? Maybe. As investor can make or lose money but will not be associated with a criminal element. One has only a finite number of years and words to speak on this planet. Speak of the truth as you believe it.
This is our time, these are our people, this is our planet.
Johnson and Johnson got its start selling bandages in the USA Civil War.
JFin. Complains of the #AVXLarmy. I say as a decent and God Fearing Country we decide to move forward in science and technology for the betterment of all mankind.
My thoughts and prayers tonight are with the families of the victims in Paris. This is our planet they shot your niece your Uncle your brothers and sisters. Wake up and fight.
Nice post. Brilliant perspective. Look at weekly charts. Zen would say look for opportunity in the darkest hours. You know what you own a market valuation at this level is a gift. If have funds to deploy nice price here. If no funds to deploy then roll higher priced buys into a Roth IRA.
I had assumed the people of the company were the brilliant and the long term investors were the brave. Some long term investors are showing brilliance as well.
As I say. GB it is up to us. I think we can hold the line. These are our people this is our planet.
To the Brilliant and to the Brave. This is in our time. What side will you be on?
$AVXL This is our time. These are our people. God bless those that use one's intellect for the greater good.
Haha Investors win. Short and long traders will both make money in this but try to calculate even the value of just 1000 shares in 20 years if successful haha. What would 1000 shares of GILD bought 1999 be worth today ? Or
NIKE Starbucks ect. This company will be huge on its own or be more than 60% of any BIG Pharma. That buys them.
The money to be made here is long term. Are you comfortable with management and science? If so we are in a screaming buy zone. Will it reach 9 short term. No. 7.30 is resistance. Will break that assuming continued confirmation on Feb 24 week results which might also be satistically significant boosting to12 to 20. Personally I like the price where it is and add more every turn of the evil scews.
Ones who bought at 14.84 are best positioned for long term. Because psychology will not work with them they are averaging down now here and buying in the buy zone and will be the ones who gain the most long term. 5 years people. In 5 years twenty five . Not soon like Agora Csukers said. In 10 or 15yrs look at GILD 20 year chart.
Trade zone 5 to 7 buy zone 4 to 5 screaming buy zone below 4. Longs and shorts were both right. Before it got ahead of its self on price. Partnership overnight 20 to 30. Next data set 12 to 15 again. February. Longs and shorts were both right everyone can make money on this one just as long as the shorts do not kill the goose that will lay the golden egg. Best thing for me is to stay low in price for a few years so I can buy more and more. Everyone talks their book. That is my book my disclosure long and accumulating. I have no revelation to share The science is here yet unproven as trial progresses level of fair price will increase. Look at weekly charts that is what investors should look at. If you were late to the party and want out wait until Feb or march. If you want to make good on this wait one year or more if you want to make the big $$ hold for 10 years or more. Look at 20 year chart for GILD. We are at the point of GILD 20 years ago. Are you in or out ? What happened in October was just a taste of things to come. Buy and hold this. OK so you read this
far I will tell you the $hit your pants riddle. That 7.85% institutional ownership is likely 21% or more now and rising. They sold at the peak and have been rebuying cheaper look at the chart as the company says nothing is different and basher AF says the rise to 12 to 14 area was overdone. So is the fall to 4.55 overdone. Fair price 5 to 6.40 accumulation zone. Next data point will see another big spike where smart money will sell and buy back cheaper. If there was a gold mine and everyone who wanted a quick buck left because all the Placer gold was gone but you knew the oar was there would you stick around for the long haul or sell out like the Placer miners?
If I told you what was really going on you would $hit your pants. So would the longs. However since both of you are wrong let's examine the facts. Stock was overhyped by the f stick Agora rip off rag. AF and J.Finn. Countered. However they instead of presenting balanced rational they stooped to same level. (Aside: JFinn. God bless those people in Paris. Know we are with your people 5000%) One needs understand traders look at valuation in less than one year terms bc most trades are short.
So as investor you do not worry your account looks too fat some day and too thin someday. Because you did your D.D
and know what you own.
At 14 13 12 of course a screaming short. Someone sees that they will scream it. So do not make a conspiracy out of it. So they tilted and lied who give a f? Why you read ? Do you not know what you own?
Investors I am with you. That is how I do accumulate when I have $$. I have some cheaper and some more expensive. My time horizon 5-10 yr.
Look at chart 5 to 6 consolation trade range. Where now below 5 is buy range but do not rule out interday. 3.38
Both longs d shorts are right depending on trade price.
Now imagine Gilead Life Sciences trading between $9 and $15 for more than 5 years. Up to you. But understand both side are right Science has not changed . We should trade sideways between 5 and 6 until 24 week data soon.
20000 were bought in a block @ask $4.63 40800 were offered all got bought
PRICES WERE DRIVEN DOWN BY BIG BLOCK SPOOF ORDERSPrices were driven down by 10000-20000 huge lots for sale right above the current ask then when reach canceled but induces sellers to put their little lots lower for a fill then they cancel spoof order and kept putting in lower and lower can do this for hours and hours and sometimes sell none sometimes just a few hundred and then buy back cheaper. It is f'ing disgusting and criminal (but SEC says hard to prove? If it was Al Queda doing it would they think hard to prove?) But, dirty American short-selling firms and theStrret.com possibly connected to Murderous Russian Mafia they look the other way.
I watch Level II all day long that last two weeks and recorded the time and exchange and amount of shares of the spoof orders, but I have no faith in our SEC (maybe it is Mafias SEC Madoff was Mafia and he was their sweetheart)to do anything.
I have great faith in our company, but I am super afraid of guys like Marty, A yuk F and Kramer because they might be intimately connected to the various Organized Crime Syndicates
PRICES WERE DRIVEN DOWN BY BIG BLOCK SPOOF ORDERSPrices were driven down by 10000-20000 huge lots for sale right above the current ask then when reach canceled but induces sellers to put their little lots lower for a fill then they cancel spoof order and kept putting in lower and lower can do this for hours and hours and sometimes sell none sometimes just a few hundred and then buy back cheaper. It is f'ing disgusting and criminal (but SEC says hard to prove? If it was Al Queda doing it would they think hard to prove?) But, dirty American short-selling firms and theStrret.com possibly connected to Murderous Russian Mafia they look the other way.
I watch Level II all day long that last two weeks and recorded the time and exchange and amount of shares of the spoof orders, but I have no faith in our SEC (maybe it is Mafias SEC Madoff was Mafia and he was their sweetheart)to do anything.
I have great faith in our company, but I am super afraid of guys like Marty, A yuk F and Kramer because they might be intimately connected to the various Organized Crime Syndicates
City as Cinema-James Morrison I want to reply to many posts here but may be running out. Ven69 nice quote from Jimmy, title here was the name of his book. In a way. this is what he talks about, the power of media and illusions.
What we are dealing with is a pervasive criminal element in our financial markets. Why because they are populated in a large measure by people who value money above all else. Even Imperial Japanese had something more important than money, it was one's honor, for they would rather die than be dishonored. So therefore always bankrupt in the things that really matter. Wall Street is a major magnet for Organised Crime because that is where the money is. It is a lot easier than robbing a bank, there they will chase the perps. On Wall Street the bigger the crook the more they are protected anD SEC looks the other way until the house of cards falls. Almighty dollar.
Naked shorting is illegal unless you are a Market Marker, that is what is known as the "Madoff Rule" because he was the one who lobbied for the exception They probably changed the name now but it still exists. This is where the phantom shares for naked shorting come from. For some odd reason a Hedge Fund still has three days to deliver shares after a trade even though everything else is instant and electronic. So for three days can trade as in the case of AVXL many shares can trade that do not exist in the market and have three days to deliver. Therefore naked short attacks using shares that do not exist can go on for three days with no red flags. (So low float means nothing if criminals can create zombie shares to fuck you)Tomorrow fail to delivers should show from Thursday naked short selling but the SEC will do nothing and they will keep it a secret. You have been F'ed by the financial establishment who does not care about you because they think you are powerless. They f'ed the either counrty in 2008 by shorting our ecomony into near depression. US Goverment chases terrorist but not Mob connected terrorist on Wall Street. But you are powerful in concerted action. You are powerful in the realm of puplic opinion which, as we saw this week when the University of Missouri football team demanded the resignation of the President of the University and got not only his resignation but that of the Chancellor of the University as well. That happened yesterday and they did it in 2 days. The black students brought it up, the football couch backed them. I am white this is not about racism this is about democracy. This is City as Cinema, common people harnessing the power of media and public opinion.
We have been getting F'ed by criminals for years because they think we have no power because we stand by and SEC does nothing as well. This must stop and stop now.
I saw it on Level II which I watch all day long on AVXL only and recorded the time amount of big block spoof sell orders of 10000 to 20000(at lower and lower amounts which get canceled before they get filled to induce others to put their smaller sell orders in front) We can not depend on the FBI and the SEC to protect us, we have to be brave and proactive like those fine young heros at Univ. of Missouri.
I will fight this thing and fight these Godless thugs anyway I can.
I emailed the journalist of the Deep Capture article, next I will call and write the SEC , NY Attorney General, FBI (me thinks Marty might be on their radar) and will write class action securityLaw Firms. I think it is important, before we get some scum bag attorneys to file class action on AVXL based on AF article like they did to CTIX or whatever that company was. (which of course is all part of the criminal mob of Wall Street)
Great Day to all our Veteran men and women of Great Honor! Thank you for keeping us free. We will fight for you as well. (And especially to WayneWolf)
CITY AS CINEMA! A MANIFESTO! TAKE BACK YOUR POWER!
$AVXL Denderon Biotech, Madoff, theMafia and the sinister side of shorting a must Read for all longs & honest shorts http://stks.co/q39lc
This is a copy and paste of the article link I saw on Stocktwits - I got the chapter 3 -very interesting read- make one wonder about if SEC bribed or intimidated by the mob
ARTICLE ON DNDN, CRIMINAL DESTRUCTION OF A COMPETING BIOTECH Read this and I think you will get some understanding of what really might be going on with AVXL. I just saw this posted on ST. Looks like the high price pill guy is following the DNDN takedown playbook. Owner of private Pharma has a drug in development that competes with AVXL for Epilepsy. Hedge fund guy owns this and believes he is above the law. AXON also owned by hedge fund. Read part of this article and you will understand the deep dark pools of the phantom shares being short sold to destroy AVXL. Not to make money to DESTROY IT LIKE THEY DID TO DNDN with the help of theSteet.com
Attempt to distroy company to keep the potentially breakthrough drugs off the market. The Turing Pharma CEO was one of the shorts tweeters. Some have alleged there is a short selling syndicate includes AF and the CEO who thinks he is above the law is part of it. Turing main development drug is for Epilepsy. One of the investigational indications for AVXL'S. Short selling syndicate may have motivation for money but they might be conspiring with that CEO with plenty of money to sell high buy back low however his motivation may be to distroy company to prevent drugs from competing and may try to accumulate as many long shares as he can. After all he had enough $$ to buy Turing. Possible criminal intent and action. Sad thing is unless there is a very vocal and active shareholder actions to petition and complain it will continue. Then only thing we will see is class action against AVXL based on AF article. We need to demand investigation into the syndicated action of short selling this.
Shorts were crazy to think AVXL build it's ship to wreck
Darn right 3 bil marketcap by June 2016
Got what I sold at 9.72 Fri back at 8.6 put in premarket limit at 8.95 now 9.06
22 min till start of premarket at most firms orders are in at ask this will be test of your skill and quick fingers to grab available shares
Skyrocket premkt most open 9am est get orders in to buy back in even though most firms not trading premarket yet it is up big
Once there is partnership or licence deal and stock trades above $10 and has market cap of >1bil more funds will buy in including ETF like XBI. That would also put it in Russell 3000 and 2000 when they rebalance. Some spec funds and trading funds might already be taking position, I saw evidence of that on level II which I constantly monitor all day long. This is the only stock I babysit all day long. On completion of and passing grade at Phase III they will give it weighted allocation. Most will need coverage by Investment houses like Stiffel. Jeffries or Thalmann, but will not know until it is done as those reports will not be available to public until their paying clients are already in. This is still a risky play but with higher risk is higher reward. I believe risk to be mitigated at these levels and I expect continued volitility. I expect this stock to do extremely well on a month to month basis up until a Phase III completion which will be a binary event .
Two to five days
Take a look at Oct 6+7 and all the previous spikes down. Take a look at rsi and cfm. Stockcharts.com/AVXL Remember the event of Oct 7 Path of least resistense is up can HFT up but not down alt. Uptick rules is in place because of Fridays big drop so HFT. Is muted in fall. Traders have low reward high risk in short trade here low risk high reward in long trade. I expect it to trade up but might have a little bit down first if sellers from Friday are not through
selling. Also news was good company continues progress at an accelerating rate. But I would expect it to rise on no news as well. Remember traders play it both ways when stock is rising they close short and go long.
I am with you Blake that was what I did everyone it take one of these spikes down I add and all last times. it went up big. The October drop before up list was as if some major traders knew in advance and shook the tree to cover short and go long. They knew big event this time . I expect the smart money to cover any short position left and go long. I would like to see it get to 10.5 to 13.30 and then consolidate sideways in that range to let the 50d MA come up to meet it. That is better than big drops that bounce. Ideally I would like to see it trade sideways till it meets the 50 d MA then follow it up slowly.i t has not breached 50d MA this year . Now at 7.28 . Even if it slowly moves up from here would be good. This volitility just attracts day traders who play it long and short.
Yes of course Glead Life Sciences ended the huge scourge of HIV. A company that at the time did what no one thought possible. I am holding for long term and buying every dip along the way.