Anavex Life Sciences Corp (AVXL)

[jimmy667]

When will AVXL get Wirehouse coverage? This is a question for the everyone with any thoughts. That could be a major catalyst for AVXL. AXON has BUY reccomndations from major Wirehouses JPM, Robert Baird, Jeffries ect all with a buy. Why? Because they were underwriters for the IPO or distributors of IPO shares. The only other rating I see for AXON IS A SELL RECOMMENDATION from a non Wirehouse firm. That might explain the great disparity between the market caps of AVXL and AXON. AXON IPO was actively marketed by these big Wirehouse firms!
I see AXON market cap getting a haircut after the lockup period expiration.
I see AVXL getting Wirehouse coverage under one of following situations. 1. Accumulation by a Wirehouse and/or a major institutions being advised by the a Wirehouse. Then when they are finished and want to distribute some back to retail they come out with buy rating. 2. Market cap of AVXL reaches 1 billion therefore rating coverage. 3. Most likely and soonest would be a secondary offering underwritten by a Wirehouse. Who of course would rate AVXL a buy.
A secondary would mostly be priced at 50d MA when current price exceeds 50d MA by an amount that would be great enough to be an incentive to those purchaser's of the secondary shares.
What usually happens to the price of the stock when secondary is announced? It could fall below the secondary offer price. Then recover to at or above in a matter of a week or two. Which give confident and informed retail investors a chance to make additions at below the price paid buy those institutions purchasing the secondary shares and then have those purchased shares quickly inflate in price as shock subsides and investors realize that a secondary offering is validation and confirmation of the value of the company especially when the offering is fully exercised in the initial amount and the amount is conditional excess shares to meet the demand. Therefore a well received and executed secondary offering while being a minor dilution would be very positive in perception of the company as well as best way to raise capital other than a partnership.
So do not be afraid of the big wave or steep mountain just know what usually happens in those situations so one can surf it or ski it.
Two antidotial cases in point. TNXP and ANTH. Tonix&Anthera both clinical stage small cap biotechnology companies. Both recently in last six months and fairly close in time did secondaries priced both at exactly $7.50. I was long both and watched Level 2 all day everyday babysitting them. They both behaved as a stated above and both recovered. I was able to accumulate more below the secondary offer price. Both were doing OK afterwards and rose above the secondary price within a few weeks. Of course not long after that Martin S crashed the sector with his price gouging as Mrs. CLINTON ceased on it.
But these are just antidotes not a statistic on how stocks behave during and after a secondary offering.
I want to see all the longs here WIN.
The keys to WINNING are confidence and preparation. Those of us that have done DD are confident. Let us prepare each other for the games yet to come. We know and should hope that at some point there will be a secondary offering of common stock.
Is anyone has statistics or studies in how stocks especially biotechnology cos. behave during a secondary offering please share it with us now. The secondary should not happen until the stock near $8 handle or more but it could be in the works presently.
Please share your thoughts. Everyone on this important subject that has not been explored enough here.
I do not post often but I read every post everyday and I do appreciate in imput from everyone here.
God Bless you all and your families. Happy Thanksgiving.