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Updated Investor presentation (May 2024) is posted on their website with backlog as of March 31, 2024 = 14.0M
https://www.virtra.com/wp-content/uploads/VirTra-Investor-Presentation-May-2024.pdf
Backlog was 19.4M Dec 31, 2023. Minus 8.1M in Q1 plus 3.1M in Q1 new sales would put it at approximately 14.4M - if I got my numbers right here (going from memory but I think I am close). How
close is this 14.4M to the actual stated backlog at end of Q1?
Given’s wording seems very careful around today’s contract being part of a [IVAS/MS] “series of contracts”. It’s hard to know if the $3M downpayment contract is of the same “Series,” or not….
John Givens, CEO of VirTra, stated, “This additional prototype contract award, in support of the IVAS program, is a testament to the reliability and performance of our technology. This series of awards has implemented new features and tuned our design to meet the rigorous requirements of the program. Our enhanced production capabilities and investment in new technologies have solidified our contract execution by improving quality and capacity.”
It is safe to say the $3M downpayment is for a large contract, perhaps to front purchasing funds and resources/capacity for a large volume order. Capacity of what though - could be IVAS related or something else. And is the downpayment 1%, 5%, 10% or 20% of the total contract value?
Regardless, the answers are all positive for us all.
Any thoughts of how much of the 19.4M in backlog on Dec 31, 2023 will be recognized in Q1’24 and what the backlog was on Dec 31, 2022 for their 10M in last Q1?
To the positive, Givens has demonstrated significant improvements in their operational efficiencies and order fulfillment times, which reduces backlog.
But I also wonder how much of the current backlog is for the program they just received the 3M milestone payment and if the size and nature of it implies a larger program with bigger purchases or longer leadtime components. The latter would spread the backlog out over time again.
GBB, you are not nuts. I would do the same but had to sell some on the ramp since $10 to finance my wife’s new kitchen (I already got my garage build-out). Down 10k to 45k holdings or so…. Life happens.
Flyers - Personally I would like a more seasoned BOD to have more confidence in M&A decisions like that at this stage in the game. That and at least a year or two more of integration with their new ERP and operational turnaround and scale to ensure they dont get distracted from fulfilling their current growth demands and new contracts.
They need to prove themselves at these levels which in itself is a challenge for a growing company of their size. So far so good - they are doing great! Especially recently under Givens and newer team with focus on operational and sales basics - cement that into their foundation before loading it up.
Before Givens, Ferris was very conservative in not over-extending themselves and in many of our opinions, not bold enough on the sales side. Don’t go too far in the other extreme now, just continue to push their sales force to leverage the differentiators they took so long to build, and capture market share they deserve and there for their taking. I see a smart balance on this in the collective team right now - keep it up.
If they need more cash to fulfill contracts (beyond $3M down and cash on hand), I would rather see the team earn their keep by negotiating cashflow leverage in their purchasing and sales TOC’s and then short term purchase financing (in that order) before dilution, as well. If this resulted in increasing the downpayment to $3M, bravo!
IMO, They have been building capacity for this growth and the IVAS probability for at least 3 years before govt delayed it, so my opinion is they already invested and used their last cash vehicle (18 or 30M - I forget without looking back).
As a company, they appear locked and loaded, dont screw it up or get distracted. Just execute.
I went through Virtra’s January investor presentation again from their website to run my own evaluations. https://www.virtra.com/wp-content/uploads/VirTra-Investor-Presentation-January-2024-FINAL.pdf
Pulling out the TAM (Total Available Market) they publish for Law Enforcement, and making some assumptions of Virtra’s future market share given their strong competitve differentiators and that they are already have traction in 40 countries to validate. As well as their military potential and assuming the $3M they mention in Q4 earnings is a 5%-10% downpayment, and IVAS accessories etc with MS…
I calculate current valuation at 240M (divide by 11.1M shares = $21.62) and future valuation of 400M (divide by 11.1M shares = $36.06). 5 yrs out and multiplying revenue-profits by 3 gives $108 per share.
This is all back-of-the-envelope and one guy’s very nonprofessional opinion (also a 25-year long shareholder) - take with a very large grain of salt and rely on your own estimates for investments etc)….
“Today” has been a long time coming and a LOT of patience required, but IMHO worth the wait.
Impressed that the actual Q4 and full 2023 report exceeded, on all counts, the already very positive TTM numbers in January’s investor presentation! Sets the stage for strong 2024 and finally realizing Virtra’s value and potential.
Just reviewed the Investor Presentation on Virtra’s website, in anticipation of their Q4 and 2023 annual earnings report on April 1.
The presentation, as a summarized story of Virtra for the investor, is very nicely coming together. The historical revenue, earnings, net income and cash trends on slides 16 and 17 (and hinting at EOY 2023 with Q3’s Twelve Month Trailing) are especially compelling.
Not sure who is admin on this board any more, but we haven’t had a “sticky” post for a while. Perhaps this is worth posting until the April 1 earnings call and release?
https://www.virtra.com/wp-content/uploads/VirTra-Investor-Presentation-January-2024-FINAL.pdf
Did I miss it or do we have a Q4/2023 annual report release and call date?
Today’s News of the investor conference pins March 17-19.
I would expect Q4/2023 beforehand so they can freely discuss the results with investors and analysts at the conference…. Please don’t repeat prior auditor delays!
Here is today’s release content:
VirTra to Participate in the 36th Annual ROTH Conference on March 17-19, 2024
Source: GlobeNewswire Inc.
VirTra, Inc. (Nasdaq: VTSI) (“VirTra”), a global provider of judgmental use of force training simulators and firearms training simulators for the law enforcement and military markets, will be attending the 36th Annual ROTH Conference being held March 17-19, 2024 at The Ritz Carlton, Laguna Niguel located in Dana Point, CA.
VirTra management will hold one-on-one meetings with institutional investors and analysts throughout the conference. For additional information or to schedule a one-on-one meeting with VirTra management, please contact your Roth representative or VirTra’s investor relations team at VTSI@gateway-grp.com.
About VirTra
VirTra (Nasdaq: VTSI) is a global provider of judgmental use of force training simulators and firearms training simulators for the law enforcement, military, educational and commercial markets. The company’s patented technologies, software, and scenarios provide intense training for de-escalation, judgmental use-of-force, marksmanship, and related training that mimics real-world situations. VirTra’s mission is to save and improve lives worldwide through practical and highly effective virtual reality and simulator technology. Learn more about the company at www.VirTra.com.
Investor Relations Contact:
Matt Glover and Alec Wilson
Gateway Group, Inc.
VTSI@gateway-grp.com
949-574-3860
I still have 90% of mine. I have sold some into this current runup purely from watching it go up and down so many times in the past and not taking any action. I do believe this time is different, mostly because of the sustained volumes and accumulation, and because the company is more strongly positioned this time around.
So you can thank me when it continues to go up - along the same lines of me causing it to rain because I am the one that washed my car. Taking one for the team!
The #4 answer may be as simple as Ferris having a bunch of options expiring (eg 10 years) so he did a cashless exercise of selling enough to cover the exercise costs of the conversion quantity. However if this is the case we would usually see the correlating acquisition notices as well.
He may also have submitted those sales in an insider sell-plan just to diversify his holdings for wealth management, and is now kicking himself with missing the run-up (exactly why insider sell plans are required in advance).
Or, maybe he is buying a new house and needed the cash. We will likely never know for sure.
Fish - Still here lest you feel totally abandoned and alone.
The 5 T’s assessment (+1 = 6)
1. Team? TBD with Givens and overdue high-test sales
2. TAM? Check.
3. Technology? Check
4. Terms? Check
5. Traction? False starts and slips that could have been avoided. Opportunity requires focused action. Not seeing it yet.
6. Time. Personally here since pre-Y2K and jaded. Not much wax left on this candle, IMHO.
<5pps an opportunity for sure, but infinite patience required. Come on Mr. Givens, sir - change the trend before being normalized by complacency of Christmas’s past.
Watching “Good Morning Arizona” channel 3 right now in Mesa AZ. Axon President is being interviewed about their immersive virtual training programs - de-escalation, mental health, empathy training etc. No mention of Virtra of course (also based here, in Tempe). Why cant we be out there like this and taking the National stage? Another missed opportunity... ?
You could hardly have a better justification for VirTra’s virtual training...
I live in Minneapolis, and the Daunte Wright shooting occurred not far from where George Floyd died.
But, this one appears to be accidental by the police officer pulling his gun instead of his taser.
“An officer is then heard shouting, "Taser! Taser! Taser!" but then fires a gun -- not a Taser -- at Wright. “
"Holy sh*t!" the officer screams. "I shot him."
The police chief said the shooting appeared to be "an accidental discharge that resulted in the tragic death of Mr. Wright."
He also stated that officers are always trained with their gun on their dominant side, and Taser on the non-dominant side.
Seems that could only be more instinctively embedded to make the right choice with repetitive and stressful immersive training...
This is indeed a very sad day for all involved, and costly in terms of $ and more importantly human life.
Contraire, Fish. Still here, and after 22+ years (foolish, naive or wise?), I don’t plan on leaving soon.
I just hope this isn’t another flash in the frying pan. I don’t think it is, this time. We do have a string foundation - Good thing I am “long.”
After 20+ years in capital equipment industries for multiple companies and sales of custom/semi-custom systems for installation at customer sites (semiconductor equipment, inspection and processing equipment, industrial equipment such as production 3D printers etc), the typical business model is 75-90% revenue upon shipment FOB and remaining 10-25% upon installation and validation of customer requirements. Oftentimes, a downpayment upon order is required that can split the upfront 75-90% into earlier milestone payments, too.
Chain of Lakes Investments is located in Bloomington MN, a suburb of Minneapolis
so they are at Ground Zero for George Floyd. Minneapolis Police Dept and its Chief of Police is in their local news every day.
Will this be another missed opportunity for VirTra training sales in Minneapolis? This article from today’s Mpls StarTribune describes how peer training is required for LE officers to intervene each other in times of excessive force. It also refers to EPIC training... VirTra could/should jump on this scenario and give Mpls a call! https://www.startribune.com/cops-stopping-cops-many-cities-have-rules-but-no-training/571512962/
Fish, I agree with ARZ, I would give you my proxy. 60,000 shares.
Been accumulating since GAMZ days - over a 20 year span, so I have seen a lot here, and my expectations have hit many highs and lows. I tend to buy per my expectations, so I can’t say I have always been wise with my VTSI investments, but I did add more in past weeks.
Overall, as an accomplished operations executive, I believe we have become overly comfortable with building, and then reinforcing, a good company foundation vs extending it to new heights. Too much polishing of the apple!
This has held us back, perhaps with too much risk aversion on the sales side.
I do think the company is operationally scalable should the sales occur the way they should (and I have looked under the hood).
Weeble, that sums it up well. I have been here since 1998 when it was GAMZ and have much the same story as you regarding my investments. Unfortunately many of my shares were bought higher, in the earliest days at .28 even, and since I seem to be lousy at timing my buys and even worse at ever selling, I am averaged in at the equivalent of .09 today. I have sold less than 50,000 shares and bought many, many times that. The majority of my 18 years here, mostly as a lurker, were under water. I agree with you we are finally turning the corner with a strong foundation beneath us that can support much more in today's (some ways unfortunately) favorable environment. Way back when there was active participation in the shareholder meetings - perhaps we will meet someday...
Looks like the officers list has been provided for 2011 and the business license extended into 2012 - follow the same link in lars' post to see the updated information. Signs of life, at least...