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Depends on who's making money off of the SP doesn't it?
First of all there is no such thing as "Wall Street". What exists is a wide variety of players, each with its own modus operandi and motivations.
NWBO is a developmental biotech with a new approach to treating cancer that has not been done before. That makes it risky to many investors and institutes. Then there is the share price that scares away the vast majority of potential investors and prohibits many institutions from investing in NWBO.
Add to that the very long history of NWBO that has not produced a product and its very large OS. Oh, and don't forget the shaky financial situation of the company.
So, with all that in mind it seems pretty easy to understand why the share price is not much more than it is.
And, I haven't mentioned the short hedge funds and short traders, who have a strong vested interest in seeing the share price go down. Those folks work at their job. SEC enforcement actions show the types of dirty tricks that are used in the marketplace by "Wall street", or at least a small segment of the investing world.
Once there is an approval of DCVax-l the situation changes. The unproven treatment becomes validated and proven in the eyes of many investors. At that point they will begin to pay attention to the drug potential and the word about NWBO and its new treatment will spread.
The biotech investor funds will take NWBO seriously and start to buy shares. News organizations will pick up the story which will create additional awareness of NWBO.
It all hinges on approval. After that I think the stock will be higher than 30¢.
I sold some of my other bio tech and rolled that money into NWBO. I'm hoping NWBO makes a move before the other one does.
Hard to tell. If you look closely you see the **** in the foot notes. That is a note to the work on hand numbers.
What is scary about that is that it says biologics are removed from those numbers.
That tells me that the biologics could be even further behind. Given the huge size of the filing, NWBO could be taking a lot longer than the statutory time frames.
It would have been helpful if the biologics had some information on them as a class.
If I understand that PR, that means they are running behind schedule and are catching up. I wish they had said how far behind they are.
So that implies that any guesses based on the 210 or 150 days plus clock stops are likely to be underestimating the decision time.
I bought another 10K shares today.
US produced shrimp are less than 10% of the US shrimp consumption.
Maybe the board has more information than you do and is happy with the company's progress.
Arm chair quarterbacks are never wrong it seems.
Did you add in clock off days?
We ended up 21 pennies. You should have wood.
Looks more like 1 year's experience 20 times. 🤣
I just went back and rechecked the EMA data on the AA applications and I got the numbers backwards.
There were 11 applications in 2022 and 7 were REJECTED and 4 were APPROVED.
My bad.
No argument about the current share price.
However, you said it is probably a little premature to talk about potential value.
If you think that is the case I do wonder why you hold shares if you didn't think the potential was there.
I agree that the MAA submission is the next critical step, followed by the NDA submission.
We have a semantic difference over the distinction between price and value. Not that big a deal. The share price is what it is and it isn't what any of us would like.
We just might. Then again we might not. As Yogi said, making predictions is hard, especially about the future.
So the P3 trial that is about to be submitted to the EMA has little value in your estimation.
The other drugs in the pipeline have little value in your estimation.
I am reminded of a phrase that Warren Buffet uses on occasion.
"Price is what you pay, value is what you get."
It appears to me that you are discussing the share price of Anavex and assuming that is also the value of Anavex.
I think that is a mistake.
We shall if that is true or not in the coming year.
In 2022 the EMA had 11 applications for AA. Of those 11, 7 were granted.
Apparently the EMA doesn't use AA often.
Since the MAA has not yet been submitted as far as we know, AA is still on the table.
Below is from the EMA website concerning Accelerated assessment.
What part of the word "potentially" is giving you difficulty?
You answered a sentence that speaks about the future with a statement about the present.
Non sequitur.
Potentially.
I would like the techies to give us an update about why the 503s were happening.
No one suggest that that the EMA got down on its knees AFAIK.
My point, which seems to be at odds with your view, is that it seems quite possible that in the discussions that Anavex had with the EMA (CHMP people) that they liked the data that Anavex showed them. They expressed a positive view.
Even if they did say please submit, the CHMP will go through the full submission file which will contain much more information that was shown in the discussions. The CHMP will make its recommendations based on the full submission file and whatever was said in those previous meetings will be a distant memory and have little to do with what the CHMP decides.
I'm not reading much into the tea leaves.
It really doesn't matter exactly what was said. Anavex still has to make the MAA submission no matter what was said.
Glad to help.
The FDA is not the EMA.
As we have seen by the rejection of the mabs.
The EMA has a different problem than the FDA. The FDA approved the mabs so there are drugs on the market for AD
The Ema rejected the mabs so the EU needs an AD treatment that it can afford and make available to all EU countries that don't have the infrastructure to support the mabs.
I don't doubt that the EMA looked at the data that Anavex presented and said, that looks good, please submit so we can take a deeper look.
That comes as a surprise to many of us.
That explains why you are here?
Do you think that was in his job description?
If you get tired of waiting on someone else to make your rich, you could always go out and do it your self.
Not you, the Driod.
You do realize that he was talking about future events, right?
So how can you say, in past tense, "If that story was true..."
NWBO hasn't submitted to the FDA so how could there be a post P3 meeting?
Your post is an amazing hodgepodge of made up circumstance and baseless attacks like the one below..
When you are grasping at straws, any straw will do.
I suggest you take that up with Admin. As a mod I have no control over that.
I suspect that number means the show is available in that 110m households. Whether those households actually tune in to the show is a separate question. I suspect that you are correct, most people have never heard of the show. I certainly hadn't until the link showed up on the board.
This is true.
It turns out that a company can do more than one thing at a time.
The law suit is not costing NWBO any money since the case is on contingency.
So the company is able to pursue its developmental strategy. If the lawsuit produces any results that is free money for the company. Having more monetary resources improves the company's position in partnering negotiations.
At this point with an OS of 1.2 billion shares the ongoing dilution is very minor compared to the OS. So if that is what it takes to get the company to approval it is not a significant issue.
Once approval is obtained the company will have access to other sources of funding, but approval has to come first.
The pharma companies would much rather have NWBO partner now when it is in a weaker position so it would be cheaper for the pharma. Looks like LP is willing to hold on for a much better position. After all, the company is quite skilled at holding on.
While I get your point, you are forgetting that there are meetings held prior to submission that would weed out the obviously weak drugs. Hence the high approval rate.
If you are saying that because 3-71 is looking much better, please remember that the FDA doesn't yet have 3-71 to compare to Cobenfy.
The existing SOC has some pretty nasty side effects and that is what the FDA is comparing Cobenfy to.
There is a good chance that 3-71 will have considerably fewer side effects than Cobenfy and the current SOC. So if it demonstrates efficacy then it is in a good position to be approved and become the new SOC.
Sure. If Anavex was a research institution funded by grants that might make sense. It would seem to me that the only reason you would, in effect, rerun the other company's trial is because you didn't believe the data from their original trial.
A second confirmation trial is always good scientific procedure. The state of research is that many experimental papers do not replicate successfully.
Theoretically the P3 trial is to replicate the findings of the P2 trial in a larger population so additional issues will be discovered where they might not show up in the smaller population of the P2 trial. The drug approval process contains a replication in the trial phase process.
Can I think of a good reason for Anavex to spend money including the other company's drug in an Anavex trial? No I can't.
Why would they spend the money to test someone else's drug? The test is against the placebo. The FDA will look at 3-71 results and then the results are compared to the KarXT trial results if it feels the need to.
Keep dancing.
You give me way too much credit. But you have interesting logic.
If I estimate a higher valuation than you, I am an influencer.
If I estimate a lower valuation than you, I must also be an influencer. That tells people to sell presumably even if I didn't intend to.
So that make your opinion a neutral opinion and the only correct one. Did I get that right?
So in your world everyone is either a pumper or a basher. I guess everyone must have a label.
How about labeling me as an Anavex investor with a positive outlook.
There was no advice in my post. A disagreement on the value of the company and it potential. I see your $15 billion buyout price as undervaluing the longer term value of the company.
For a short term investing perspective $30 a share looks pretty good.
For a long term investing perspective $30 a share seems way low to me.
We will see how things turn out.
That would be short sighted in my estimation.