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SS, where to from here on LM.V? Looks like getting rocked on earnings miss.
Hey Traderfan, if that really is your actual workstation, if you happen to be running Windows, can you tell me if you run any utility to get a taskbar on each monitor?
Well I'm certainly not complaining about the performance of the stock price. Yet, other than the dedicated forum on Stockhouse, you almost never see this stock mentioned anywhere, which is probably a good thing I suppose.
EconStud OEE.V - any theories on the weird trading (price and volume) on this one? Warrant expiry I suppose could account for a lot of the selling, but still. And now that date has passed, demand has seemed to die off. Not particularly worried, but it seems strange.
OEE.V Memex
IIOT (Industrial Internet of Things)
I think this company has huuuuuuuuuge growth ahead for the next several years, assuming it doesn't get taken out by Cisco.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/memex-inc-expects-report-record-163702361.html
BURLINGTON, ON--(Marketwired - Jul 28, 2016) - Memex Inc. ("Memex" or the "Company") ( TSX VENTURE : OEE ) today released preliminary financial and operational highlights from its third quarter of fiscal 2016, which ended June 30, 2016. All results are reported in Canadian dollars. Full financial results are expected to be released after the Company's regularly scheduled Board Meeting on August 18, 2016.
Memex expects to achieve revenue of $919 thousand for the third quarter of 2016, representing an increase of 104% over the same period a year ago, and 61% higher than Q2 2016. Revenue growth was driven by both new customer wins and follow-on orders. Year-to date sales of $2.1 million eclipsed the $2 million level for the first time in the Company's history, with one quarter still remaining in the fiscal year. Gross margin for the third quarter of 2016 is expected to be approximately 72.5%, up from 50.4% a year ago. Bookings1 remain strong with year-to-date bookings exceeding $2.6 million.
Management Commentary:
"A considerable jump in our Q3 sales combined with our solid bookings and backlog is evidence that manufacturers recognize the value and benefits of production analytics and data driven manufacturing," said the VP of Sales John Rattray. "Our recently announced partnership with Cisco positions Memex to accelerate the delivery of this value proposition."
Q3 Fiscal 2016 and Subsequent Operational Highlights:
•In July, Memex was featured at Cisco Live (Cisco's annual technology conference), where Cisco revealed that Memex's MERLIN platform would be part of Cisco's Connected Machines portfolio of solutions. A key component of Cisco's value proposition is that MERLIN facilitates the real-time calculation of Overall Equipment Effectiveness (OEE).
•In April, Sun Hydraulics Corp. placed an 89 machine follow-on order for MERLIN MES Enterprise Edition Software, after a successful 11 machine initial phase.
•Q3 saw Memex collect 5 significant new customer project orders and 5 follow on orders from its current customer base. Since quarter-end Memex has added another 2 new customer projects and 2 follow on orders.
•In June, Management finalized arrangements and completed the early payout of lender, Business Development Bank of Canada. The early payout eliminated future interest and royalty payments.
About Memex Inc.
Memex Inc., the developer of MERLIN, an award winning IIoT technology platform that delivers tangible increases in manufacturing productivity in Real-Time, is the global leader in machine to machine connectivity solutions. Committed to its mission of "Successfully transforming factories of today into factories of the future" and encouraged by the accelerating adoption and success of MERLIN, Memex is relentlessly pursuing the development of increasingly innovative solutions suitable in the IIoT era. Memex envisions converting every machine into a node on the corporate network, thereby, creating visibility from shop-floor-to-top-floor. Memex, with its deep commitment towards machine connectivity, offers solutions that are focused on finding hidden capacity by measuring and managing Real-Time data. This empowers Memex's customers to effectively quantify and manage OEE, reduce costs and incorporate strategies for continuous lean improvement. For more information, please visit: www.MemexOEE.com
Shorting tobacco stocks
Where I live at least, it's getting to the point where it's as common to see someone using an ecig as smoking a cigarette, whereas 12 to 18 months ago you'd rarely see anyone with an ecig. I think the adoption is really starting to accelerate, so I'm wondering if anyone has an opinion on if/when it might be a good idea to short (long out of the money puts) tobacco stocks?
I know they make lots of their revenue from overseas, but I think even there where the financial advantage to consumers of switching is less impactful, the health benefits remain. As for them moving into the ecig space themselves, they'll surely do it (already are in some cases), but even then the revenue per customer is way lower.
Anyone familiar enough with this sector to chime in with some advice?
I have the same question about NRZ, hopefully sskillz1 can chime in with some thoughts on it?
SS - what's your thoughts on NRZ these days? It's sure had a big pullback, yielding 12.5%. Anything to be concerned about in your opinion?
CDN.V(RV Rentals) $.79, 9 months EPS $.21
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/canadream-corporation-reports-record-third-130000313.html
This one on anyone's radar? Has had a huge run already this year unfortunately, but still cheap on a P/E basis. Fair amount of debt but nothing crazy. You see these RV's on the road all the time in the summer, and apparently quite a few are rented to snowbirds heading south for the winter as well.
CanaDream Corporation engages in the rental and sale of recreational vehicles (RV) primarily in Canada. It rents maxi motorhomes, midi motorhomes, super van campers, maxi travel campers, and deluxe van campers. The company sells its RVs on a wholesale and retail basis. It operates a fleet of approximately 800 units. The company also offers trip planning and RV storage services. CanaDream Corporation provides its services through canadasbest.com, a proprietary business-to-business Web-enabled system; and canadream.com, a business-to-consumer on-line Internet reservation system. The company, through its partnership with Apollo Motorhome Holidays, also offers RV solutions in Australia, New Zealand, and the United States. CanaDream Corporation is headquartered in Calgary, Canada.
https://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=CDN.V
https://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=CDN.V+Key+Statistics
I somewhat agree, although in my opinion they are a bit beyond just ramping up:
The Company has invested more than $24 million of capital across 24 investments in 19 portfolio companies. Management's target in building a balanced portfolio is based on the pricing of risk in the SME market a rate of $250,000 of annual revenue per million of invested capital1. The portfolio has reached a scale at which, as designed, it is generating stable income and Adjusted EBITDA1, which has enabled the Company to declare its first dividend.
24 deals with 19 companies, and they're hitting their 25% royalty - that seems impressive to me.
My question is: can they keep it up? It would seem up until now they've demonstrated the ability to identify and successfully (so far) execute deals, can they continue to find deals of similar quality?
Grenville continues to possess a strong pipeline of investment prospects. During 2014, management reviewed approximately 465 prospective transactions, proceeded to the due diligence stage on approximately 260 transactions, issued 68 term sheets and closed 16 new investments and 4 follow-on investments. With the volatility of the broader markets experienced during the fourth quarter, management deliberately slowed its rate of investment, as evidenced by the decrease in the rolling three month average investment per month. Management believes this volatility in the markets has the potential to provide the Company with enhanced deal flow, as small and medium sized enterprises often face difficulty in accessing growth capital in challenging equity markets.
Seems like they have a healthy pipeline, one would hope these would be similar quality deals.
To me, a company grossing 25% returns on investment who are just crossing into profitability (Income (loss) after taxes was $(80,461) in Q4 2014 and $(3,457,760) in FY 2014, including non-recurring costs of $3,636,197 directly attributable to the Company's going public transaction, Adjusted EBITDA1 (loss) of $(61,451) in Q4 2014 and $490,357 in FY 2014. Excluding the writedown of $1,000,000, Adjusted EBITDA was $938,549 in Q4 2014 and $1,490,537 in FY 2014) who is currently paying a 7% dividend, and seems to have ample opportunity to grow their portfolio, seems attractive. I wonder if I'm missing something. The biggest risk I see would be a recession, or if they are overly focused in one sector that craters (ie: oil in 2014), that could be disastrous.
SSK: Grenville Strategic Royalty Corp. (GRC.V)
Anyone (SSK?) taken a look at this one?
Grenville Strategic Royalty Corp. provides royalty-based finance solutions by acquiring revenue streams generated by growing industrial and technology businesses. The company was incorporated in 2013 and is headquartered in Vancouver, Canada.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=grc.v&ql=1
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/grenville-strategic-royalty-corp-announces-212149994.html
Fourth Quarter 2014 Highlights
Revenues of $1,535,246 and $2,944,791 for the three-months ended December 31, 2014 (Q4 2014) and twelve-month period ended December 31, 2014 (FY 2014), respectively
Income (loss) after taxes was $(80,461) in Q4 2014 and $(3,457,760) in FY 2014, including non-recurring costs of $3,636,197 directly attributable to the Company's going public transaction
Adjusted EBITDA1 (loss) of $(61,451) in Q4 2014 and $490,357 in FY 2014
Excluding the writedown of $1,000,000, Adjusted EBITDA was $938,549 in Q4 2014 and $1,490,537 in FY 2014
Free Cash Flow1 of $1,217,417 in Q4 2014 and $936,690 in FY 2014
Royalty agreements acquired were $4.5 million for Q4 2014, bringing the aggregate value of acquired royalties since inception to the end of Q4 2014 to $24.6 million
Average royalty payment per million invested1 was $247,118 for the month of December (Annualized)
The Company is also pleased to announce that its board of directors has approved a cash dividend of $0.00416 per share for the period of February 1, 2015 to February 28, 2015, which is equal to $0.05 per share on an annualized basis. The dividend will be paid on March 16, 2015 to shareholders of record at the close of business on February 27, 2015.
SS, any thoughts on revisiting CZO on this pullback?
Apparently 85% of revenues are in USD which should also provide a bit of a tailwind.
Don't look at me!
I wonder if a moderator should step in and start banning people, this is getting a bit ridiculous.
I was just thinking a bit more about this, I wonder if from a self-interest perspective it might be better to not share specifics of where you get tips, especially for microcaps like PYDS.
I suppose the odd person might get a bit butthurt thinking you're passing off their hard work as your own but I doubt it would be too common. Although, if anything SS would probably prefer to have more followers and more demand for his picks. But for shameless parasites such as myself, the less followers the merrier. :)
In my limited (~3 months) experience as a subscriber to Keith's letter, he rarely hesitates to cut and run, especially when he has a nice profit. Considering the volatility of PEIX, it can hardly be called a bad strategy even if he leaves some $ on the table from time to time.
Keith Schaeffer says:
If you're a serious energy investor, you get Rusty Braziel's free blog email everyday from www.rbnenergy.com. (Go sign up here--https://rbnenergy.com/signup) His team writes a little more technically than I do, but more often than not there are great nuggets in there.
SS, what's your thoughts on CZO.V at this point? Obviously it just had a huge run after earnings release but even so, it isn't terribly expensive....any thoughts of getting back in on a pullback?
Maybe post here?:
http://investorshub.advfn.com/What-aint-workin-4/
Use the Hide Intro and Hide Quote icons at the top of the comments list.
Twitter: pretty decent guy to follow for ethanol and PEIX: @MilesTaylor47 https://twitter.com/MilesTaylor47
US ethanol stocks draw again amid tumbling production: EIA
http://www.platts.com/latest-news/agriculture/houston/us-ethanol-stocks-draw-again-amid-tumbling-production-21408404
Houston (Platts)--16Oct2014/547 pm EDT/2147 GMT
US ethanol stocks for the week ended October 10 shed 295,000 barrels to 18.356 million barrels, falling from an 18-month high for a second consecutive week amid a production decline of 16,000 b/d to 885,000 b/d, Energy Information Administration data showed Wednesday.
Supplies lowered amid tighter supplies in four of five regions, led by a 138,000-barrel draw in Gulf Coast stocks, which hit 3.028 million barrels, a four-week low.
East Coast stocks shed 58,000 barrels to 6.939 million barrels, and West Coast stocks dropped 112,000 barrels to 2.335 million barrels. Rocky Mountain stocks shed 5,000 barrels to 349,000 barrels, falling from an all-time high for a third straight week.
Midwest stocks, on the other hand, made a modest gain of 18,000 barrels to 5.705 million barrels. For the first time in 11 weeks, there were ethanol imports reported, totaling 3,000 b/d.
The four-week rolling average of gasoline demand ticked up 84,000 b/d to 8.782 million b/d, while the four-week rolling average of the refiner and blender net ethanol input moved up 10,000 b/d to 873,000 b/d. The weekly refiner and blender net ethanol input soared 27,000 b/d to 885,000 b/d.
As the rising blending demand trumped the uptick in gasoline demand, the four-week rolling average of the ethanol blending rate -- calculated by dividing the four-week rolling averages of the net ethanol input and gasoline demand -- was 2 percentage points higher at a 17-month high of 9.94%, 0.06 percentage point shy of the 10% "blend wall."
The blend wall occurs when the maximum amount of the US gasoline pool has been blended to a level of 10% ethanol. Refiners then will be under pressure to run higher ethanol blends, buy renewable credits known as RINs or push for Congress to alter the Renewable Fuel Standard.
Thanks SS, much appreciated! I own a fair amount of NRZ already but will do some DD on the others you mentioned.
Great post SS.
CPSS- There has been insider buying, stock is a great entry point, And I really believe FV is around $9-10. Time will tell if I'm right expecting .24-.26 quarter. My 6th largest position in my opinion is very undervalued.
I (and I'm sure others) would be very interested to know your top say 10 holdings, and of course whether you think they are still buys at their current prices.....or maybe just your top 5 "buy now" stocks. If it's not too much trouble.
Wish I had taken your advice on ethanol, I was VERY overweight, sold most of my shares at 18.50 on the way down luckily, but failed to capture a lopt of the gains I made, and also hold a ton of call options, some bought on the way down when it appeared to stabilize. Luckily they are deep ITM Jan 2016 so I still feel fine that I'll get my $ out, but will have to wait quite some time I expect.
Anyone know of any Oculus Rift compatible 3D video companies that are publicly traded?
Here is an example of the technology:
http://www.panocam3d.com/
I expect this at some point to be a frenzy similar to MJ stocks.
Bobwins, have you done any DD on Victory to get a feel for their costs and whether their projected margins are achievable? I know very little about the industry, but considering the growing demand, I worry a bit that they might not be able to get great pricing on their sand supply, not to mention what it'll cost to actually purchase a mine for their phase 2 plans...any thoughts?
Ok, tried using Chrome rather than Firefox and it now works, so must be an addon I'm running that blacks the delete buttons somehow. Thanks for the help!
I don't see a way to delete:
http://i.imgur.com/7VzefqH.png
How do I remove a board from my favorites??
I looked in the help section but there's no mention, and I don't see a button anywhere.
Russia & Ukraine situation
Anyone have an informed opinion on how the Ukraine situation may or may not affect corn prices?
http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/ukraine-crisis-eu-threatens-russia-with-more-sanctions-1.2751305
http://www.agrimoney.com/news/ukraine-crisis-to-hit-corn-wheat-output---usda--7024.html
With the world's 29th-largest population, Ukraine is now the fifth-biggest corn producer in the world and tied with Argentina for the third-largest exporter:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/101501269
Good points....I'm in at much lower prices, I'm happy holding for now but won't be buying any more at these levels. I think we could see quite a bit more upside some (PEIX for example), but as you say, if one or more of the variables turn, could also be a bloodbath.
> I continue being extremely negative on the sector and believe this won't end well.
SSKILZ1, mind explaining why you're negative on this sector? I can see negative on 14x future earnings, but I don't see a problem with the sector, at least for quite some time.
Thanks, I will consider it.
Check out SKH after hours today, wow.
NHC.TO vs EXE.TO
SSKILLZ1, any thoughts on the relative performance vs EXE.TO? NHC has been doing far better, despite the recent stellar performance of EXE:
6 month Comparison:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=NHC.TO&t=6m&l=on&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=exe.to
1 Year Comparison:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=NHC.TO&t=1y&l=on&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=exe.to
Price volatility....can anyone familiar with this stock explain in fifty words or less why there is such massive volatility in the price? Is it a typical China play where you can't really trust what any of the news releases say, or is there some legitimate reasons?
Proposal Threatens to Aggravate Shortage of Railcars to Move Oil
Thousands of Tank Cars Are Likely to Be Scrapped or Redeployed Under Federal Safety Move
http://online.wsj.com/articles/thousands-of-tank-cars-likely-to-be-scrapped-under-new-rules-1407859765
Proposed federal regulations on hauling flammable liquids threaten to aggravate a shortage of railcars for transporting oil.
The proposal, which likely will mean scrapping or redeploying thousands of tank cars, could make it more expensive to ship oil and other fuels as crude-by-rail shipments have soared with U.S. oil production. The plan could also extend the wait times for new cars
Implementing new standards will hinge on the capacity of the railcar industry to upgrade existing cars or replace entire fleets with new cars. Demand for replacement cars is likely to collide with the crude-oil industry's growing need for additional cars. The backlog of orders for new tank cars was 52,589 at the end of the second quarter, according to the Railway Supply Institute.
Related coverage
Secrecy of Oil-by-Train Shipments Causes Concern (May 22)
Railcar Shortage in U.S. Pushes Up Lease Rates (May 29)
Quebec's Lac-Mégantic Fears Return of Oil Trains (July 4)
North Dakota Fracking: Behind the Oil-Train Explosions (July 7)
U.S. Seeks New Rules for Rail Transport of Fuel (July 23)
With production capacity for new tank cars about 35,000 cars a year, industry analysts say the railcar industry could have difficulty expanding production fast enough to accommodate the short time frames proposed by regulators for ushering out older tank cars for transporting flammable liquids. At current production rates, cars ordered today couldn't be delivered until 2016.
Meanwhile, the capacity for extensive retrofitting is even murkier. Most railcar repair shops in the U.S. are regional operations intended for small-scale work. Car maker Trinity Industries Inc. TRN -1.94% is expanding a maintenance shop in Arkansas to retrofit tank cars on a large scale.
Tank cars have provided quick, flexible transportation of oil extracted from shale rock through hydraulic fracturing in locations far from pipelines. The sharp increase in rail shipment of crude has contributed to transportation bottlenecks for other cargo, such as grain and automobiles.
Many of the cars that would be most at risk for being scrapped under proposed regulations are owned by railcar-leasing companies or ethanol producers. Almost all the nearly 30,000 tank cars now used to haul ethanol would have to be extensively retrofitted or replaced. The government estimates that the retrofits alone would cost the industry about $1 billion.
But Bob Dinneen, president of the Renewable Fuels Association, which represents ethanol producers, figures the cost would be significantly higher. "We want to do whatever we can to improve safety, but as I look at this proposal, [the government has] been disproportionately focused on the tank car," Mr. Dinneen said. He has said that regulations should be crafted for specific flammable commodities based on the frequency of fires and explosions that occur during train derailments.
Industry groups and car owners have 60 days to comment on the regulations, which were proposed by the U.S. Transportation Department last month.
Regulators proposed a 2018 deadline for removing all the older, general-purpose tank cars, known as the DOT-111s, now used by the ethanol industry. DOT-111s have been involved in several crashes in recent years, including the explosion of a crude-oil train in Lac-Mégantic, Quebec, last year that killed 47 people.
Even 20,000 newer tank cars built to a higher standard than the DOT-111 could be subject to retrofits under some of the regulatory options being considered. Most of those newer cars have been in service for less than three years and are used by the oil industry.
Car owners say that retrofitting an older tank car could cost as much as $60,000, while the government estimates the cost at about $30,000 a car. Even if the actual cost is in between, tank-car owners say they are still concerned about earning sufficient returns from older, retrofitted cars. Tank cars can remain in service for 40 years.
"Given the great expense of this retrofit, and the older age profile of the our [tank cars], in most cases we're more likely to try to redeploy the cars into other types of service or send them to scrap," Brian Kenney, chief executive of car-leasing company GATX Corp. GMT -0.32% , told analysts last month.
Chicago-based GATX has about 13,000 tank cars transporting flammable liquids, about 4,900 of which carry crude oil and ethanol. The remaining 8,100 tank cars haul other types of flammables generally considered less dangerous than oil from North Dakota's Bakken Shale, which has been identified as particularly volatile.
U.S. freight railroads shipped about 330,000 carloads of ethanol and 408,000 carloads of crude oil last year, according to the Association of American Railroads and the Renewable Fuels Association.
Regulators are soliciting feedback on options for upgrading tank cars. Two options would require tank cars hauling flammable liquids to have tanks with steel that is 9/16-inch thick, which is one-eighth inch thicker than on most cars now in service for flammable liquids. The tanks proposed by the government also would feature steel plates on both ends, better valves and heat-resistant exterior insulation that would be covered with metal. The government projects that the sturdier design would make tank cars 17% to 21% more effective against punctures in a crash than the DOT-111.
In lieu of replacing more than 90,000 tank cars that couldn't meet the tank-wall requirement, the government is offering car owners the option of adding an outer jacket made of steel that is one-eighth-inch thick. But the jacket and other requirements would increase weight. The steel jacket alone would lower a car's 30,000-gallon capacity by about 800 gallons, forcing shippers to deploy more cars, according to rail-industry analysts.
Questions remain about whether there is enough production capacity available to retrofit existing cars or replace them in time to comply with the government's schedule to phase out the older tank cars. If the new regulations take effect next year, the approximately 50,000 tank cars in crude-oil service would have to comply in 2017.
"We would have liked to see a little bit longer period," said Rick Webb, CEO of Watco Cos., a Kansas-based operator of short-line railroads that has a joint venture with car manufacturer Greenbrier GBX -1.80% Cos. to retrofit tank cars. "Putting a jacket on a car is not easy and it's costly."
If tank-car owners simply opt to purchase new cars, which would cost at least $150,000 apiece, the car market would be left with more older tank cars than could likely be reused for other bulk materials, analysts said. The glut would depress lease rates and undermine values for tank cars that don't carry flammable cargo.
"The people who own these cars are not going to put an overwhelming amount of money in them," said David Nahass, senior vice president of consulting firm Railroad Financial Corp. "There are going to be many cars that can't or won't be retrofitted, the market is going to be flooded with capacity."
Our internal estimates show that applying MagneGas technology could save a coal plant a potential $5 million per month.
This line jumped out at me in the SA article. Does anyone here understand the technology enough that they could expend on that a bit? Is this a NET $5 million/month, or are there significant capital upgrades that would be required that is not being included in the estimate?