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Didn't say I had 12 million share had 41000 sold 2K yesterday and the rest today, no BS.... I didn't like the current situation time to move on good luck to you.
I am out sold 39000 share this morning and the volume was showing less than what I sold alone. Something is not right OTC is shady. Was a big loss for me but glad to be out. Going to be a long summer and they need to raise more funds for expansion. I believe the price will much lower and will look to reenter after the next round of funding is finished. All the good news that has come in the last few weeks has done nothing but send the price lower and lower. Gene Simmons the anti drugs rock star was a bad choice paid way to much and has done nothing to help the company.
I don't see any news ZSAN either
Just tiny 4m float that looks to be getting sucked up by longs, small MC about 20million just above its cash valve. Results coming for P3 before end of Q1. Market size about 2B.
Good results and I think could go easy to $3 to $5 range.
Yes Ash multi-billion market and if approved ZSAN will be the go to treatment for Migraine. How much extra will someone pay for rapid relief?? 30%-40% more? ZSAN could easily see sales of several hundreds of Millions per year.
As I said before I see the odds very high that P3 is a success. Its not a new drug to prove, just the method of absorption. Again ZSAN has already demonstrated the ability to do this in previous trials.
That small float is going to make this thing fly with a little volume.
Corporate presentation page 18. Pivotal efficiency Study completion Q1 2017.
Safety Study continues through Q2 2018.
http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/AMDA-31G0T0/3469242437x0x893779/12EE7D61-3AA4-4766-B8FC-0DABAE900EB7/ZSAN_Corporate_Presentation_May_2016.pdf
FDA site, estimated study completion date Jan. 2017
https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT02745392?term=zosano&rank=3
We should see the Pivotal efficiency data sometime in Q1 2017.
ZSAN is using already approved migraine medication in the Phase 3 trial. The trial is to show the ability to transfer the medication at close to same rate as a injection.
They have already done this on healthy subjects in P1 trial. That why no P2 and have gone right to P3.
quote:
"ZP-Triptan demonstrated rapid absorption compared to the zolmitriptan tablet."
http://ir.zosanopharma.com/releasedetail.cfm?ReleaseID=939871
Now its just to prove that rapid absorption of the current treatment produces rapid relief.
As you stated ZSAN has already demonstrated this in the other two completed P2's for other indications.
Very good odds that the migraine P3 will be a success.
I added more today.
Still trading below its cash value.
I added 4000 more today in mid 0.80's
Looking forward to 2017 ZSAN should be a good return.
I just have a starter position in NTRP. I also hold shares in the competition you speak of AVXL.
NTRP also had a positive response with a severe Alzheimer's patient.
see link below
http://www.j-alz.com/content/severe-alzheimers-patient-responds-bryostatin-treatment
The 150 patient trial estimated primary completion date is Jan2017. I would expect the price to rise some between now and then.
Look under the "Study Results" tab it only lists 1 person with headache in any of the adverse events tables. Looks as if the Placebo had more with headache, dizziness & rash.
Not sure if there is anything else but nothing is listed.
Started a position in ZSAN friday afternoon. Looks to be a great risk/reward, always love to enter when trading below its cash value...............plus P3 results coming Q1 2017. Have to think this will at least rise to its cash value before the P3 release. Planning to add over the next few weeks.
good luck
happy trading
I didn't see the drop to 2.20 this morning but was not paying close attention. Stockcharts from your link shows the candle down to 2.20. I Ihub has the LOD at 2.2, my IB account has the LOD at 2.2.
My TD account has LOD at 2.35 also yahoo and investing.com have LOD at 2.35.....Strange
Tom I think we will see that 3.30 target soon, that bounce to today was not to strong not able to break 4. Same in Nov. dropped to 3.5, little bounce, than to 3.30 on second beat down.
If not it I would guess AVXL will see low 3's before next data release, I wait and have some low 3's and high 2's waiting.
Right now looks as to some uncertainty over funding the P3, so not going to rush back in. Just trade it when the volume is higher now. Then wait as it bleeds off after for possible lower bottom later.
Spilled Milk Tom.........haha, if we only knew we would all be on living on our own private islands.
It kills me to say I watched over $480K in profits disappear. Sold enough to make my shares free back in Nov.
I have less shares than back then but it's still all good. Looking forward to see what what our little girl hits this run. Don't let those profits slip through your fingers again.
GLTA
Nothing of what you said matters. The only thing that matters is the FX trial results in Sept.
GALT needs to meet primary endpoint or its in deep trouble. If the trial fails the price will tank and the company will not get the warrant money it needs to complete the CX trial.
If the trial is successful a BP partner for P3 or a buyout will soon follow.
It's do or die and you only have to wait 4 more months.
The PASI of 75% decline was not reached yet but is in decline vs time. If we had seen the 75% already the SP may have popped more. It was only in 4 people, 5 if you count from NASH trial. From other trials the placebo effect is less than 3% for psoriasis, so would be mostly drug effect. At the 75% reduction in psoriasis most are considered cleared. Need to see 8 of the 10 people get close or surpass the 75% to consider a P3 trial and will need funding for a P3.
If it we can see a reverse in the upcoming NASH trial reporting in Sept. Than you will see a much bigger pop.
They should have lots of data by now and must be seeing something positive. It's a smart move to release some good data soon as it should create some positive momentum going into the trials reporting later this year. Also like you and the familyman point out the need to have SP above $2.5 to generate some much needed cash with warrants. Only a little tidbit of info today but is the most positive news we have seen in a long time.
"GR-MD-02 in patients with moderate-to-severe plaque psoriasis. We look forward to reporting interim data from this study in the near future. "
I had asked the company about this last year, if there would be a interim report. The response was no.
The trial was designed to dose and than follow the patients for 1 year after.
This new development of a interim report points to a positive response for this trial. I don't think they would say "we look forward to reporting" and than give bad results. If results were not positive they would wait as planned and quietly PR the failure.
Yes it's only about 1.3% of the 10x holdings were sold. Still sends a different message to investors than buying would have........yes many different reasons for selling but only one for buying. I am still holding waiting for results.
The 10x fund sold 44312 shares on April 19 & 20th. Not a bullish sign with 2 P2 trials reporting in the next 6 months.
Yes the CX trial is recruiting
PR from Aug 10th
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/galectin-therapeutics-provides-phase-2-120000561.html
FX trial to start Q3, reporting end of 2016.
FDA website shows:
Melanoma trial - Recruiting
CX trial - Recruiting
FX trial - Not yet Recruiting
Psoriasis trial - Not yet Recruiting
https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/results?term=GR-MD-02&pg=1
So maybe they have started but haven't update FDA site yet.
Either way it will be end of 2016 before we get any results.
They are NOT planning on releasing any interim results. I asked IR that question a while ago.
Only way we get anything earlier is if the trial ends early for whatever reason.
Yes familyman it is very tight timing, anymore delays and GALTW could expire worthless and I have a lot of them.
Would be nice if management could extend the expiry date for us, I believe it to be possible to do so. its worth close to 10million to the company if they are converted.
The FX trial is not recruiting yet & not planning on reporting out until end of 2016 as per the last 10-Q.
The Psoriasis trial has not started recruiting yet either. its a 12 week trial, than follow for a year before reporting, so that will be end of 2016 at best.
10-Q said enough $$ until Sept 2016, so not enough cash to complete any trial.
Sucks not to have the chance to see possible good results before kicking in the ATM again.
I never said we were 50% chance from this point. That is IF the company is in P3. I was using it to say IF in a P3 trial and the SP is $3.5 that would be a good deal, using 40% or 50%.
I said the odds of a successful P3 from here is 12.5%, so use 10% if you like. From this point to successful P2 is 25% to 30%.
With my average buy in I believe I have 25% chance of making 10 to 1 on a good P2.
I don't really care so much what the P3 success rate is, I don't typically invest at that stage.
The best risk/reward comes from P2 and is were I play, and I think we all agree now that it is 25% range.
http://www.nature.com/nbt/journal/v32/n1/full/nbt.2786.html#supplementary-information
Some different stats from different studies out of success rates, the one above from 2014. There are many others if you look.
Drano I hadn't been to the FDA site for a while to look at stats, seems to be lower than I had seen previously.
I tend to look at more than one source for stats.
Thanks for telling me I don't know the odds or the game I am playing. Like how I watched this stock collapse for years and started buying at 0.18 when they announced upcoming P2 and had done the money raise. When did you first buy and your odds of success at than time?
I still take 25% chance on 10 to 1
Yes institutional ownership they are not stupid, they known it is a great deal at this price.
A wise CEO like ours would not release bad data early at a conference makes no sense, good news is coming for sure. A smart man would want to protect SP, announce a failure in conjunction with a new IND for another indication and not move up data release date.
At $0.52 you would want to protect the cash for the 0.4 warrants for future trials, if the trial was going badly you would wait as long as possible before releasing bad news. Get as much cash in hand to insure future operations.
Very bullish good things this week, don't get off the ride early!!
Good results here and this will run hard to the final results before year end.
A successful P3 and this is a 5 billion MC / $35 SP fully diluted all day every day. The FDA success rate for P3 is 50%.......so 500 million MC / $3.5 is 10 to 1 on your money on a coin flip. That's bet any gambler would take. This space is a graveyard of failure so who really knows what Mr. Market will be thinking.
Currently P2 success rate is 25% range, our diluted MC now is about 80 million +/-......So $3.5 from 0.52 is 6.7 to 1 on a 25% chance. Or consider the 5 billion MC from here is 62 to 1 on a 0.25 x 0.50 = 0.125......12.5% chance of 62 times your money.
None of this takes any fundamentals in to account just average BIO success odds.
I consider AVXL to be much better than average based on fantastic management and current fundamentals, adjust the success average up for your risk/reward for this one.
Only each investor can determine their risk/reward/amount.
Good luck to all
Great per clinical studies, great P1 with no dose limit TOX and signs of therapeutic effect for multi billion market. MC is 60 million only a little more than 2x's cash position....ICPT is 100x's larger MC and has adverse effects.
GALT has gone from my best performer to my worst!!
Time....time....time.... Waiting for the bottom to average this down. Will it drop all the way down to its cash amount?
I would expect a run up to start 3 to 6 months before the release of results a long time to go until then.... Watch and wait to add, I hate the red in my account.
Think we will see double digits again before the next results are released? seems like a stretch from were the price is now. Hopefully we get a good run again love having the big $$ into results. This time no Calls, GALT hurt me bad with Cohort 1, 2 & 3. Might buy puts this time to hedge, or just sell it all before...na love the action to much....a year and bit and this will be fun again!!
The Providence Portland Medical Center is funding the Melanoma trials. They can't be to smart over there, someone should let them know that they have been sucked into this P&D scam.
Everybody and their dog is looking to buy at 0.28. Might never see it again. 15% to 20% difference for 0.32-0.33. Still cheap for something can easy go double-double from here before results. I will continue to add next week still a great deal in low 30's
If we do see 0.28 or less sure a lot of us will "find" some more funds to push this way, you may have to be Johnie on the spot for 0.28 or less, don't think a lot of shares will trade at less than 0.30 here anymore.
This best in class drug with super low MC has big fish story written all over it.
JMHO
This company is trading at 10mil range, not much more than cash in han, with enough to complete P2. It has low TOX seen in P1 & P2 results coming this year. If any therapeutic effect is noticed this will be trading in the dollars not cents anymore.
It does appear to great deal based on Risk/Reward/Time.
From the presentation they are expecting enrolment to take a year. Expecting last patient last visit Aug 2017.
The shorter FX trial should hopefully be long enough to see the true effect of this drug. The Cohort 3 FibroScan showed greatly improving results with increasing time 2 patients were noticed to have 50% drop and 1 with 30% after 60days. The FX trial will be twice as long with 9 doses vs 4.
Hopefully all 20 enrolled see a 50%+ drop and GALT can get Breakthrough designation. Get this drug to market as quickly as possible, so as to save as many lives as possible.
The options are worth 259k x3.45=$893550 in cash to the company if excised and nothing if not.
They are also worth to the holders when excised what the difference in share price to 3.45, anything over 3.45 is free money.
Not sure what your mean by $10 in 10years, if you believe the share price will be $10 in ten years I don't think so. It will be $100+ or zero.
These are options with a strike price of $3.45 expire Jan-29-2025. The options were granted not excised they don't convert to shares until excised.
They have nothing to due with the 450k shares.
If there is a buyout GALT can offer a buyback for the warrants or the buyout company will list the warrants adjusted for their share price with the same expiry date.
I believe the warrants are the best way. If the stock were to make it back to $15/3.5=4.3
The warrants would trade around $10/1.5=6.6
The numbers look better for the warrants the higher the price goes. If it has a excellent P2 and hits $100/3.5=28. vs the warrants $95/1.5=63.
Only thing is not much volume in the warrants, especially now at this level. Will take a while to accumulate a decent size position. Also not easy to dump at this level if you needed to.
The warrants expire March 28 2017.
Darwinian said
"I figure I'll know for sure by 2017"
Unfortunate but most likely true, I sure GALT will be higher than $4.9 at some point in the next year but also a good chance to be lower.
I took a large position in hope of a good gain from Cohort3, that didn't happen. No the full results are not out yet but I sure the best has been presented, it will most likely go down the day the full results come out.
Still some profit should be here at some point in the next few months, looks to be on the low side again.
Personally I will take profit the next time I can and reduce my position.
The fact that the stock did not rally from the recent results is a bad sign considering it was presented at the liver conference.
Looking like the Dr's in attendance didn't view this as a buy or something they tell their friends about.
Also here:
http://investor.galectintherapeutics.com/releasedetail.cfm?ReleaseID=881702
Quote:
"Based on the robust pre-clinical efficacy and positive safety, tolerability and pharmacokinetics in the Phase 1 clinical trial and a pharmacodynamic effect, the Company is in a position to design a strong Phase 2 clinical trial to assess potential surrogate endpoints that are closely associated with clinical-related outcomes in patients with cirrhosis, including hepatic venous pressure gradient (HVPG) and morphometric analysis of collagen on liver biopsies," continued Dr. Traber. "To this end, the Company recently met with the"