Anavex Life Sciences Corp (AVXL)

[BelizeBeachTrader]

I never said we were 50% chance from this point. That is IF the company is in P3. I was using it to say IF in a P3 trial and the SP is $3.5 that would be a good deal, using 40% or 50%.
I said the odds of a successful P3 from here is 12.5%, so use 10% if you like. From this point to successful P2 is 25% to 30%.
With my average buy in I believe I have 25% chance of making 10 to 1 on a good P2.
I don't really care so much what the P3 success rate is, I don't typically invest at that stage.
The best risk/reward comes from P2 and is were I play, and I think we all agree now that it is 25% range.