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Oil dynamics changed since early 1970s...
North America, U.S. and Canada. plus
Mexico are energy independent...
West Africa producers can supply most of
the needs of Europe...
So here is how it pans out...
China keeps getting all the cheap oil
from Russia and Iran that they need...
Other Asian countries get shafted by any
pumped up prices from Opec...
U.S. drivers only get shafted because the
money changers don't want folks to
know the truth, or it would be moot
to push for Middle East unrest...
Western money changers can't make
money off their oil price pumps if
reality is seeped out to the masses...
Ultimate crash will be much harder on
U.S. producers because Opec producers
already cut back for slowing demand...
It really shouldn't be considered safe to
fly anywhere if unrest picks up any more,
so airlines should see slowing first...
Other demand slowing trickles in more
if folks decide to slow spending...
More is less...
So we watch...LJ
Disrupting shipping impedes fuel use because
it slows commerce...
Higher gas prices in U.S. slows things
too and sways voters...
Wars support gdp but doesn't improve
overall health of the economy...
So we watch...LJ
GRRR winning an Intel partner of year award
a few years back caught my attention...
Needing more security in more
areas added to the interest...
Gorilla operating base in Taiwan may
be reason for a Cayman domicile...
Here is a link with some funding history
leading up to their stock listing...
https://golden.com/wiki/Gorilla_Technology_Group-YXXZK8B#:~:text=Gorilla%20Technology%20Group%20engages%20in,is%20headquartered%20in%20Taipei%2C%20Taiwan.
Now will defer to others better at making
contacts to see what the analysts may
know about the company...
https://investors.gorilla-technology.com/financials/analyst-coverage
Please let us know if anyone plows
those fertile analyst contacts...
04/04/24 6k filing has a note about
Currency at the end...that is the part
that is hard to understand now...
https://www.otcmarkets.com/filing/html?id=17429525&guid=8GQ-kKDmXUXiIVh
Now I do know it is related to the
war and adds to timeline of Gorilla
showing better results there...
Diversity in new contracts will be key...
Working with Lanner seems to add
a hint of credibility...
Needing at least a 10 bagger on
Monday from Friday close is the
most pressing issue now...
So we watch...LJ
China imported 6% less oil in March
versus March, 2023...
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Chinas-Crude-Oil-Imports-Dropped-by-6-Year-Over-Year-in-March.html
China also lowered their price per barrel
cost on oil by buying more from Russia...
China filled a lot of reserves in 2023
when oil price was cheaper...
So can lower buying while things are
slower in their economy...
China is not the elephant in the room
causing excess oil pricing now...
India has slowed down too or they
would still be buying Russian oil...
Appears you are getting screwed when
you pull up to pump gas now...
So we watch...LJ
Happy Meal prices up...Dow prices down...
something strange in the neighborhood...
so we watch...LJ
Who didn't know Israel was an AVOID zone
before today?...
Rhetorical question, of course...
Dem party pumping up oil price may
be heading toward bigger production
taxes on oil at Federal level like Gabon
and Egypt have...
As spin to lower demand even more...
They have something up their sleeve...
So we watch...LJ
GRRR profits in 3rd quarter, 2023 saw
a wad of cash move to restricted
on balance sheet in that info
when it was put out...
A different filing on that Egypt contract
showed a clause that they had to move
a percentage of that to restricted status
to guarantee fulfilling the Egypt work...
Only happened to see a post that showed
where that info was...
Need 6k annual filing to add more clarity
which is due in May...
Don't know much about what or how they
do anything...
Not really tech savvy...
GRRR will need more biz contracts
outside big Egypt deal to grow...
So we watch...LJ
EIA projects record natural gas in storage
by October, 2024...
This link shows how high current
inventory in storage is compared
to only a year ago and it is way
higher than 5 year average...
graph at bottom visible...
https://www.naturalgasintel.com/may-natural-gas-futures-fizzle-after-eia-prints-37-bcf-storage-pull/?v=DG_PopPosts
Remember that info from yesterday
showed that APA severely curtailed
production of natural gas for March
already....
So we watch...LJ
Israel has killed 200 aid workers in Gaza...
Six aid workers killed made the
media headlines...
https://apnews.com/article/israel-palestinians-aid-workers-killed-2d08786a9839dfc402632c7ca745acca
Do they get bigger tombstones?...
So we watch...LJ
GRRR .62, will have EPS close to $3/share
for 2023 trailing year after
completing a 10 to 1 reverse
split taking place on Monday...
https://www.otcmarkets.com/filing/html?id=17439498&guid=S_Q-kpQDq0N2B3h
Would hate to see the price if they
were losing money...
Not in it to lose, but wouldn't really
recommend it at the moment...
So we watch...LJ
I promise not to turn on a/c inside
the house when temps
get to 75 to 80 again...
All this cool, WET weather sux...
tarred off it...
so we watch...LJ
WAHA already in red before train tripped...
https://boereport.com/2024/04/11/us-natgas-flows-to-texas-freeport-lng-export-plant-seen-down-on-thursday-lseg-data/
Train back online again was just
restored after previous outage...
Real pricing isn't the same as
future's pricing on natural gas...
https://www.naturalgasintel.com/daily-price-tracker/
WAHA and the Henry Hub price in
Louisiana signal rough revenue period
for producers selling there...
https://www.naturalgasintel.com/apa-curtails-permian-natural-gas-output-citing-negative-waha-prices/
Oil sector Odd rally still appears that
it could also trip at some time...
So we watch...LJ
VTLE hedge loss per share will be lower
in 1st quarter after the late year
2023 dilution upped share count...
Seems to have folks happy, happy...
Ya don't get the 3rd happy when those
earnings come out with higher share count...
Greens are soaked, just chip it in...
So we watch...LJ
China property crisis lowers coal prices
which reduces coal production...
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Top-Coal-Province-in-China-to-Curb-Output-for-First-Time-in-Years.html
Which should reduce diesel demand
during that production reduction...
So we watch...LJ
Thames Freeport is forward looking and Alliance
with them seems taboo on this
board so focused on the dark side...
https://thamesfreeport.com/
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/gorilla-technology-thames-freeport-announce-120000056.html
Connectiv City chat surely won't break
up a pity party rocking...
So we watch...LJ
Cooking with technicals, when your SPY goes limp,
wait till the gap around 500 fills,
and see if it regains support there...
Reduce heat during this simmer...
So we watch...LJ
Israel may have added up to $16/bbl to
the price of oil while U.S. demand
has been meek...
https://apnews.com/article/israel-hamas-gaza-war-news-04-10-2024-fad770cbe77a7ae7d1de8568dbabd460
$10/bbl to $15/bbl. more could come
like a quicky Israel airstrike when
Iran starts counter measures...
There doesn't appear any outside
influences to guide anything different...
50 cents extra at gas pumps could
change to an extra dollar at pumps
to keep scoring simple...
So we watch...LJ
Good news is Gov't saw 6% receipts increase
in March...
https://ih.advfn.com/market-news/article/6666/u-s-federal-budget-deficit-narrows-in-march-with-reduced-outlays-and-increased-receipts
In-line with Gov't push last year
to get 6% Union wage increases...
Which will add to cost of goods sold...
So we watch...LJ
Lower fuel demand fuels inventory build...
Total inventories rose over 12 million
barrels in week ended 04/05/2024...
https://ir.eia.gov/wpsr/wpsrsummary.pdf
https://ir.eia.gov/wpsr/overview.pdf
Gasoline inventories above year ago
levels even after weeks of low refining...
Jet fuel inventories above year ago...
Distillate inventories above year ago
levels and placed 2nd week in a row
of lower demand in the distillate column...
Production of liquid natural gas liquids
still above year ago pace,,,
Lower fuel demand in 2024 now gets
tested with higher pump prices now...
So we watch...LJ
If U.S. oil companies can maintain 30%
higher sale prices in U.S. than China
or India have to pay for oil, then
the Ride could continue for excess...
At least till November...
Slower driving in 2024 hasn't affected
U.S gasoline prices yet, but the higher
prices could alter spending plans...
Most likely altering company budgets
on fuel expenses more than common
folks needing to make a living...
Peons are at the market's mercy...
We could still see $65/bbl to $70/bbl.
oil more in line with world demand,
but it has an eclipse glimmer now...
Dim hopes for cheaper prices...
So we watch...LJ
Why gas prices in California ‘have gone ballistic'
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-gas-prices-in-california-have-gone-ballistic-160544399.html
Retail gas demand only modeled at
about 8.7 million barrels per day
for week ending 04/06/24...
8.8 million barrels per day was rough
high in August, 2020 billed as despicable,
low demand then...
https://www.gasbuddy.com/go/national-average-returns-to-rising-as-oil-reaches-multi-month-highs
Inflation is kicking it's heels...
Despite spin data to the contrary...
Excess money flow still Driving Inflation...
So we watch...LJ
Cal $5/gal+, retail gas demand at stations
still flowed well below EIA Gov't
estimate in last week cross over data...
https://www.gasbuddy.com/go/national-average-returns-to-rising-as-oil-reaches-multi-month-highs
Refiners boosting those west coast gas
prices getting meme type stock following
in the market is a crazy thing to see...
Reward them for taking more...
Disparity between retail demand numbers
and Gov't report numbers has been
a consistent theme in 2024...
We need to find that Gov't hole where
the gasoline has been going...
So we watch...LJ
U.S is still paying on debt from Gulf
War that ended up seeing China
control Iraq oil field development...
The current West Pump Up of oil
prices just gives Iran more money...
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Iraq-And-Iran-Will-Expedite-Development-Of-Sanctions-Busting-Shared-Oil-Fields.html
And it hasn't impaired any world
supplies as the Opec+ spin keeps
trying to convince folks on...
Control shifted to Iran/ China from
Saudi Arabia...with splashes of cheap,
discounted Russian oil for India too...
But the price spinsters still want the U.S.
drivers to pay 30% above discounted
prices that many in the world are getting...
Campaign ads should be placed above
all gas station pumps as a reminder of
who is helping you pay more...
So we watch...LJ
Glut of natural gas could start growing
again as milder temps start
sweeping further north now...
Noticed that they have been pumping
that nat gas price up a smidge...
Big foreign buyers start seeing the
warmer weather about the same time...
So we watch...LJ
Only small build in API oil inventory,
so maybe folks with plenty of
money to chase dark afternoons
distorted demand up some...
So we watch...LJ
GRRR bid whacked me on some more
shares in after hours,
after 8-k filing...
So we watch...LJ
oil nations have been raking in more
money with the oil price up,
and should have more later to throw
at rebuilding Gaza...
seems staying long on Turkey would
be the play...
were you trying to confuse me?...
EGP value was pummeled down also
and materials should move thru there
in rebuilding period for Gaza, not Israel...
another flip flop opportunity perhaps after
they were punished for helping innocents...
less is more...
So we watch...LJ
Turkey exports, moves ahead of moves?...
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/4/9/turkey-restricts-exports-of-54-products-to-israel-until-gaza-ceasefire
The Turkey import demand to Gaza
will soar when the rebuilding aid
starts pouring in at some time ahead...
The move could be to prepare for new
export potential that will come...
So we watch...LJ
GRRR needs a copy of taxes paid in
a download in an 8-k filing
if they pay on time for 2023...
A high level tech company should
know of a way to do it...
So we watch...LJ
Doing right is taking the middle ground
and not a left or right turn...
https://www.politico.com/news/2024/04/08/israel-gaza-war-elizabeth-warren-00151120
Odd how decency gets twisted...
So we watch...LJ
Iran hired marketing firms to spam call
phones in Israel on the 10th when
Ramadan ends at monster pace...
Calling will become almost impossible
when the non-stop spam calling barrage
starts with no end predicted....
It will seem like hell on earth...
And pleads for a ceasefire will erupt...
https://www.jpost.com/israel-hamas-war/article-795866
Just when no one thought things could
be any worse...
So we watch...LJ
GRRR .84, around .82 support is area
to start first buy or add now...
That doesn't mean that .82 will
hold for sure as support...
Penny stock traders control the trading
action and price moves now...
It takes longer to move support price
up and work the penny stock traders
out of the fray at lower prices...
Prices move up easier after higher
support areas above $2 are reached...
It doesn't matter if the company is worth
$4 or $12 per share now...
Price support getting moved up by
newer investors sets the price...
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GRRR/?p=GRRR
So we watch...LJ
Nothing like a crude awakening when lower
demand hit volume on revenue
along with lower margins...
I'm tempted to lowball on some
put buying on Vlo in particular...
Still a lil bit afore earnings though...
So we watch...LJ
Been shaking my head wondering why refiner
stocks jumped with oil going up?...
https://www.investopedia.com/articles/active-trading/102214/difference-between-oil-services-and-refiners.asp#:~:text=The%20refining%20side%20of%20the,added%20products%20becomes%20more%20profitable.
Refiners had great profits in 4th
quarter of 2023 when oil prices dropped...
Is the info out there wrong?...
Can they hold margins when oil price
has been rising at a fast pace?...
Someone may have to rewrite the
info on refiners if their rally ever ends...
So we watch...LJ
Question selling put options...
Would you sell put options at the
bid thinking that price will close
at that strike price to clear it?...
Would you sell just to collect the
higher premium after a daily price
drop if you were comfortable at getting
exercised if price stayed weak?...
Use a cheap $1 put price to explain it...
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GRRR/options
We don't have champagne budgets...
So we watch...LJ
Understood, but worst housing affordability ever
in U.S. shows a tale of different
means moving in different directions...
The high stock market is lying about
bigger problems at the core...
And the FED under Trump started the
inflation problems, and the FED under
Biden increased inflation problems...
It will take a contraction to get housing
prices back down to more affordable
levels for more people...
Unlikely to occur this year as forecasts
are high on the potential for more folks
than ever possibly getting wiped out by
weather and having to start over...
Weather events have propped up building
and rebuilding demand even when interest
rates have been rising...
Forecasts don't look promising to help
get housing prices back to affordable...
Less folks building any home equity...
Otherwise, most rarely save any money...
So we watch...LJ
The haves with degrees or specialized skills
are always in demand...
Have Not category contains all
those delivery jobs getting counted
in the total employment...
Pretty big drop off in units to deliver
after the holiday season ended
reduces income of a head counted
in the work force...
Very top sided economy now which
seems to have decreased the ability
of some to catch up...
Market making Haves plenty of money
never reflects Main Street woes...
So we watch...LJ
04/04 to 04/10 seemed most likely for
market weakness to get aroused...
Nothing other than abrupt, reduction
of money flow during a short time period
seems likely to induce a correction...
And it could all pass like a nice spring
day and very uneventful as well...
Will still be plenty of high prices to
buy if we don't see any deals...
So we watch...LJ
High office vacancy rates are tells that
employment Seasonal numbers are
to be taken lightly...
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-02/office-vacancy-rate-nears-20-to-set-fresh-record-moody-s-says
Fannie Mae has been bundling their
delinquent loans sold off...
Which doesn't spread out those deals
as 35% or so of face value to individual
investors who Might offer lower rents...
Stock market can only be run up easy
like now when the retail investors are
waiting for sale prices again...
Watch for brokers sending out offers
to try and draw in money for the big
institutional owners to sell to...
So we watch...LJ
GRRR is lone, long hold left after selling
spree over past week...
04/04/24 was my target date for
market to start selling off,,,
GRRR may manage growth higher
than inflation or interest rates,
still a gamble on that...
Nothing sold over last three weeks will
have much eps growth this year...
Former largest holding moved to
negative EPS results this year versus
previous year results...
Big change from having zero cash
position to it being the anchor now...
So we watch...LJ