SMCI put setup says big rally above $42

this week before they expire

on Friday...

Big sold put amounts are held on

values up to the $42 price...

All face exercise if price is below $42

or $35 etc at close Friday...

Large amounts of calls have been bot

up to those prices also...

Yeah, the options are very cheap now, but

that shouldn't be the motivation to hold...

SMCI could be worth up to $100 billion or

more as a private company or up to

about $170 per share...

Hopefully they pop out some news ASAP

to let folks know they will stay public...


EY looks like they could be s spy group

going around harvesting sensitive info

from companies and move on when they

are cut off from more access to it...

EY has churned a lot of clients...Next...


So we watch...LJ

SMCI, some reg info review material...

https://secretariat-intl.com/about/

https://www.cooley.com/about

https://stocktwits.com/TurboTurtle/message/592106597

08/19/2024 8K filing link...added an Independent

Director to Board on 08/15/2024...

https://www.otcmarkets.com/filing/html?id=17770169&guid=UzY-kHNdAfwyvOh

Additional changes to bring in another

or more Independent Directors to also

serve on Audit Committee shouldn't be

a surprise if it happens...


SMCI hasn't been idle in the storm...

so we watch...LJ

SMCI products easier to service than competition

can save money in the future,,,

Might reduce downtime and service payroll...

quote... one stands out.

https://www.servethehome.com/the-top-nvidia-hgx-b200-server-supermicro-sys-422ga-nbrt-lcc-intel-ocp-2024/?utm_campaign=OCP2024&utm_content=315706762&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook&hss_channel=fbp-160720263987353

so we watch...LJ

Arab nations protest genocide by Israel...

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cp8x5570514o

Good luck to the next choice for

U.N. by the U.S....

better wear a cup to meetings...

Choosing to take a Republican Senator out

of Florida leaves a hotly contested seat

filling ahead, if the choice stands...

Senate margin probably erodes with a

replacement election in Florida...

It is a reward system but rewarding folks

from bigger Republican areas might be

a better way to do it...

Saudi Arabia may choose to flood the

market with oil now and the opposite of

what folks think is the worst outcome...


So we watch...LJ

SMCI undervalued three to ten fold if Private

with current 13 billion market cap...

24 billion annual revenue times only

one yields 24 billion market cap...

around $46/share value instead of

$25/share at low end valuation...

40 billion annual revenue potential with

higher production online now available...

three times higher value potential at

around $75/share at low end valuation...

Short attack has played mind games

with investors in a public company as

it was intended to do...

TSLA is selling at 12 times annual revenue...

NVDA is selling at 38 times annual revenue...

https://www.supermicro.com/en/

SMCI is helping lead the Ai revolution...

Investors will awake from the fog and

the tide will shift and roll over the shorts...

Then the shorts see nothing but red...


so we watch...LJ

SMCI approached $40 billion run rate potential

annually at end of first quarter...

Production capacity for Direct Liquid

Cooling systems ramped up to 1,500

per month from 1,000 per month...

SMCI will hire an Auditor whether they

stay public or go private...LJ thesis...

SMCI will hire an Auditor whether they stay

public or go private...

Shareholders have about same amount

of ownership either way...

SMCI increased their competitive advantage

in 1st quarter against competition...

SMCI new facilities in Cal increased their

production capacity even more...

SMCI facility opening in Malaysia will

also boost efficiency and cost...

All the noise out there would love to take

over a company with a $40 billion per

year revenue run rate potential now...



so we watch...LJ

Biden already passed 100% tariffs on China

EVs sold in the U.S....

TSLA market share has kept declining

in China since that smooth move...

China wasn't selling many EVs in U.S...

with so much competition from four or five

companies selling EVs in U.S. already

in addition to TSLA...

TSLA pump always rides hype on autodriving

tech that isn't needed much...

Sure richy-rich can buy a higher priced auto

with auto drive,,,

but 90% to 95% of buyers aren't likely to

pay a lot more for auto with auto drive...

Pumps always come down to the

Reality of Economics...


so we watch...LJ

SMCI looks safer than owning TSLA at

current prices now,

so NVDA should be ok...

https://stocktwits.com/Bulltard34/message/591939989

TSLA more overvalued than all those

other auto makers combined reared

its head in past blow out pumps...

Looks like doomsday buying by TSLA fans

in denial of eroding market share...


so we watch...LJ

J.D.Vance living the dream till Trump sentencing...

Things could get depressed for politico

on both sides before they ever have

a chance to get better...

so we watch...LJ

Possible bounce to 42 or so on chart

may be possible with Nasdaq extension

being granted...

There are or were some large state

retirement funds invested in SMCI...

Innocent until proven guilty seems most

likely choice by a Nasdaq board to allow

extension to replace auditor...

But there is no sure thing because no one

even knows if SMCI filed to try to get

an extension yet...


so we watch...LJ

Some of us would lose massive tax loss

set ups if we bot more...

They had, supposedly, less than 3% of

revenue from companies barred by gov't

restriction changes before last year,

and stated that they stopped selling to

any of those,

so that may get passed over...

Do they have a policy for Errors and Omissions

in place after years ago problems?...

May never know that either...

Still possible that nvda is still propped up

until big politico investors can harvest

long term capital gains...

If you notice SMCI chart, the big selloff

didn't start until cheap share price area

was over a year old allowing capital gain

tax breaks for sellers before big drop...

so we watch...LJ

Senate Republicans helped block Taiwan tax relief

to their citizens in U.S. facing double

taxation...

https://globaltaiwan.org/2024/08/taxing-relations-the-stalled-us-taiwan-tax-treaty-in-congress/

Taiwan doesn't allow more advance

Ai chips to be built outside of Taiwan

now and won't be built in Arizona...

https://www.benzinga.com/news/global/24/11/41871161/nvidia-supplier-tsmc-faces-regulatory-hurdles-in-manufacturing-2-nanometer-chips-abroad-minister-says?utm_source=TechInvestorNews&utm_campaign=partner_feed&utm_medium=partner_feed&utm_content=site

Who dat that has the better position

to get the double taxation of Taiwan

citizens in U.S. changed now?..

U.S. now orders TSMC to halt advanced

chip sales to China?...Again...

https://www.reuters.com/technology/us-ordered-tsmc-halt-shipments-china-chips-used-ai-applications-source-says-2024-11-10/

Prohibition of advanced chip sales to China

was Already in place...

And TSMC was trying to abide by it...


LLC company created by China or Russia

are hard to detect by companies...

Gov't has to be upfront and provide lists

of Barred LLC Companies before rapidly

chastising tech companies...

Big problem is that China already has

the technology to build the advanced

Ai chips now and cheaper,,,All they had

to was get one Ai chip and reverse engineer

it so that they can build them...

NVDA had big pump earlier in year

because China black market chip sale

prices were being spread on media...

West is probably soon to be behind the

competitive curve in selling Ai chips

abroad because of Protectionism...

More tariffs won't help get cheap

avocados or tomatoes from Mexico

either, so Trump will face many bad

reviews on higher food costs...

so we watch...LJ

Media keeps reporting Jensen is backstabbing Charles

of SMCI on blackwell chip deliveries

in multiple articles...

That would be concerning after Charles

did so much to help promote NVDA...

We could use some clarity on that from

NVDA if they aren't backing SMCI...

SMCI having 5 billion of inventory on hand

at end of 1st quarter, 2025, 09/30/2024 ending

quarter, makes it Very hard to believe that

Charles mispoke about needing the new

Blackwell chips as soon ASAP...


So we watch...LJ

Fair video review link on why many only

watch from sideline now...

O.J. and TSLA are staying over priced...

https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=JO&p=m

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA/

TSLA hit around $30/share after covid

hit the U.S....not long ago...

A more severe downturn in economy started

Wednesday after Trump won election...

The severe contraction that started in many

large cities this past weekend will never

get public review very quickly...

Mexicans are more reserved in spending...

Blacks are generally much bigger spenders

and are probably halting spending now...

Saw it in local restaurants very slow for biz

this past Friday evening and do think that

trend will play out in larger cities...

peon thesis, of course, but be wary...


so we watch...LJ

NATO needs major offensive to regain Crimea

before Trump walks in...

Russian aggression took over Crimea

before they attacked Ukraine...

Would Trump and Elon give away Alaska

if Russia attacked West coast of U.S.

just to broker peace?...

NATO needs to be at the greatest point

of confidence before Trump walks in...

NATO can't trust Trump to not give away

part of Ukraine after the invasion of

sovereign Ukraine by Russia to broker a

deal that He thinks adds a feather in

his hat band...

Russia added another country in their

Evil Axis bringing in North Korean troops...

NATO needs to counter that escalation

with major offensive and take back control

of Crimea already falsely overtook...

This is not Israel killing innocent folks in

GAZA and is a totally different War...


so we watch...LJ

SMCI,,,why doesn't a shorted float of 60%

versus about 23% show on it?...

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SMCI/key-statistics/

A lot of institutions hold shares and

sell calls or puts to generate income

while they are holding...

Institutions and Insiders hold around 70%

of the shares...

585 million shares would have around

30% float...

175 million shares would be floating

from those 585 million shares...

sure, there are some flipper institutions...

100 million shares short is almost

60% of around 175 million share float...

Only about 75 million untethered to shorts

is roughly the average daily trading volume...

Seems to kinda explain why some companies

can have such volatile price moves...

Realize that this question is asked in hind

sight because the dates of info always

lag for public to get access to...

Have no idea of anything that might cause

a short covering rally on it...

Just wanted to ask what might seem like

a silly question, but still holding shares,

so there you go,,,that explains silly...


so we watch...LJ

CTBC Bank in Taiwan is a winner after

the short attack...

Big U.S. A. shorts have drove

$150 million of cash to be restricted

and held outside U.S. now...

Big target of some large company may

be to gain control over Ablecom...

Ablecom has averaged chassis production

of about 95% for the company...

https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edgar/data/1375365/000137536524000022/smci-20240331.htm

SMCI has seemed to disclose relationships

in the company to other companies...

Break up the Smart Family Ties and you

can get more control over the market

because you can slow their time for new

product development in the future...

Concentration of risk of above 60% of

Accounts Receivable with only three

companies may be worth watching...

Just how strong are those big Three?...


so we watch...LJ

Media reported that NVDA had DOJ investigation

of them...is that true?...

Cal state rejected whistleblower request for unemployment

benefits due to breaking NDA...

Now goes to arbitration as requested

by SMCI...

Original reason for firing has remained

unknown as it was phrased as sensitive

by the company...

The DOJ rep may be the only outside

party to get copies of what really spawned

the firing and ultimate backlash by fired

person after that...


so we watch...LJ

TSLA,,, SMCI could be at $470/share or

over $270 million market cap compared to

TSLA selling at about 11.5 times revenue...

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA/key-statistics/...

Elon is looking well appreciated now...

NVDA is selling much higher at 38 times

revenue when entering Dow...

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NVDA/key-statistics/

Is that near a record for being appreciated

level for a stock?...

Those are some wild valuations...

so we watch...LJ

SMCI ranks about #437 on S&P 500 list

by Market Cap currently...

https://stockanalysis.com/list/sp-500-stocks/

SMCI rank would move into top

270 companies in S&P 500 by Revenue

and up from #498 with Audited Financials...

https://www.50pros.com/fortune500

E&Y resignation didn't disagree with any

financial data presented for 2024 fiscal year...

Extension from Nasdaq to allow more

time now to file 10K filing is absolutely

needed by SMCI now with new auditor...

for kicks estimate, SMCI could move into

top 180 on S&P 500 list by Revenue by

maintaining $6 billion per quarter Revenue

generation in fiscal year 2025, If Audited...

so we watch...LJ

SMCI insiders gifted shares have nothing on

the line like institutions and retail

buyers have their real money at risk...

There still seems a disregard of keeping

real money investors updated every day

now by those insiders...

If accounting firms have dropped by for

coffee and doughnuts to talk to SMCI

then folks need to know...

Any potential audit candidates may want

to review a Lot of info before accepting

the position...

Investors already know that...

Have they filed the appeal to Nasdaq?...

No time to drag on that item...

Investors need to know...

Insiders that haven't put their real money

on the line are the only ones that know...


so we watch...LJ

Yas, thou should get rain by Monday...

so we watch...LJ

Trump tariffs will increase inflation on average folks

even if the gov't numbers choose

not to show it...

Maryland sounds like the desert in

much of Alabama for months...

Some sprinkles this week were a

welcome tease of rain coming...

tropical storm turned west in gulf

and lowered chance of needed rain...

the heat wave isn't normal either...

so we watch...LJ

NVDA way overvalued if SMCI can't sell there

products due to not filing impairing

their biz production...

Losing SMCI production capacity would

immediately lower NVDA revenue...

There is no other production available

to make up the shortfall now if SMCI

can't buy NVDA chips to resell in their

products...

It could end up a big mess,,,

but hopefully the situation at SMCI

gets resolved...

SMCI also buys chips from AMD and

INTC to put in their products...

Tech world acts like there is nothing to

worry about with the SMCI filing delay...


so we watch...LJ

U.S. Debt Crisis could grow under Trump...

so we watch...LJ

Election results proved to be surprising...

OK, the SMCI option action appeared

to move to heavy buying on calls

on Wednesday with price drop...

30, 35, and 40 call volume for this

Friday saw extra heavy volume...

It shouldn't have been sold action

because the option prices plummeted

at open with the lower share price...

The action was on buying that would

need a price near those price marks

to get ITM by Friday...

Also had some similar activity at same

prices for the next week ahead...

Implies same possible expectation of a

price move by this Friday...

Could be nothing to it, but wanted to

mention it just in case...

In reverse, they drove option prices sky

high into Tuesday close, before the price

drop on Wednesday...

Will they be consistent?...

NVDA moves to DOW on Friday as some

back lighting on this activity...

so we watch...LJ

SMCI+NVDA+XAi+ChatGPT...Colossus is

an engineering marvel...

Ernst and Young is a quitter...SMCI ownership

hasn't grown since 1995 to quit...

https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/big-four-shakeup-ey-sheds-clients-faces-audit-scrutiny

Quitting doesn't compute for SMCI...

SMCI is pretty well regarded in

computing too...

Peon thesis, as always...


so we watch...LJ

SMCI inside share Ownership becomes worthless

if they don't get an auditor to

keep them public trading...

Every U.S. company getting a quote on

markets must have annual audit...

https://www.otcmarkets.com/stock/OHAQ/profile

There is no public trading venue for a

company without annual audits...

Think about it, in biz and growing since

1995 and they would let Ernst and Young

derail the life work of Charles and Spouse?...

POOF, that thesis is over my head...


Democrat control propagating wars around

world for Years has undermined the world

economy and seems a much bigger problem...

Would be good to see Mr. Trump choose

Ms. Haley as Secretary of State, which

could help her prospects in four years...

J.D. doesn't look like a succession prospect

if it has to be voted on...Good choice to tell

Israel that U.S. is cutting them off if they

don't pull out of Gaza...They will believe him...


So we watch...LJ

U.S. oil exports plunged by 1.4 million barrels/day

in weekly report for some reason...

https://ir.eia.gov/wpsr/overview.pdf

Wonder if a country stopped buying

U.S. oil exports?...

this is a post-election day report...

Elon hanging tight with next President should

be a little tell for oil investors to jump ship

before the waters get choppy...peon thesis...


so we watch...LJ

SMCI is bottoming because the high priced

puts are hard to make money on

now with price so low...

give us some juicy put info on high

priced things like amd,tsla,meta, and

on and on out there...

amd is in tech slowdown like SMCI...

tsla is seeing BYD plow over them

in China sales...

meta should see huge revenue drop with

election spending over now...

bring us a juicy put money maker,,,

that analysts talk about later...

so we watch...LJ

Amd better put play now?...SMCI bottomed and

should rebound as this 3rd quarter

slow down in tech biz changes...

SMCI gets better pricing in this slowdown

period which helps boost margins...

Slowdown info is in the SMCI CC in the

hardly watched categories...

Chip makers hearing of potential slowing

order flow will give incentives via pricing

to keep product moving...

Server makers, especially big DLC Server

lines, are the first line of offense to see

pickups in order requests again...

Election finally in rear view mirror...

Wall Street is baskakwards to Main Street...

TSLA was way over priced before the big

price jump again Wednesday, with BYD

kicking their arse in China sales,,,and more

more competition in U.S. now...

lol, good company and has audited financials,

but buyers should be losers from here...

Buy the deal when it's real still works on

Main Street, and just takes longer on Wall

Street for the big money to load heavy and

then start promo on it again...

Tech drops are due and it is a better time

to be in a low priced loser waiting till

it starts to rebound...

No money to be made on over priced

tech plays at this time...

Charles, at SMCI, was short on info to

analysts which helps keep folks from

looking too hard at Jensen of NVDA...

Guide low with little info and big beats

can come if biz rebounds fast after the

election lull is now over...

so we watch...LJ

Elon and his team at XAi approved this video

which showcases products from

SuperMicro, Nividia and other companies...

That statement from the SuperMicro

spokesperson is unaudited...

Quarterly numbers aren't audited from any company...

10K annual filing is late...

Actual biz rules require disclosure from

other party, before releasing any news

about them, such as a new auditor...

so we watch...LJ

NVDA round tripping news with affiliate, Coreweave,

was spinned hard...

Alas, Charles of SMCI, stated that

NVDA is not shipping Blackwell yet...

ooohhh, that pissed off folks,,,denial

of a chip delivery lag...

SMCI sells from a diversified group

of Ai chip sellers...

drill baby drill, oil companies went into

denial mode Wednesday also...


so we watch...

11-05-24, SMCI 8-k...

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1375365/000137536524000038/fq125pressreleasedraftv7.htm

11-05-24, additional 8-K info on

retiring bank debt...

https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edgar/data/1375365/000137536524000038/smci-20241101.htm

so we watch...LJ

SMCI record quarterly revenue is about 11% higher

than the previous quarter...

600 million revenue increase on 5.3 billion

to 5.9 billion number is phocking big...

Ain't no short sellers that can change how

math works for a growing company...

Will NVDA going into Dow on Friday try to

get Blackwell chips to market as soon as

they possibly can?...

SMCI is a bargain in the high priced lanes

no matter how articles get penned...

Gross margin up to 13.3% from 11.2%

in the previous quarter...

Basher article writers may over look that

info that was used to trash SMCI after

reporting for 4th quarter, 2024...

Peons need to take the deal that the big

shorts are spinning for them on SMCI now...

Peon thesis, of course, as always...


so we watch...LJ

SMCI CC reported about 400 million positive cash

flow in 1st quarter, 2025...

big turnaround from previous 2 quarters...

estimated up to 440 million net profit in

1st quarter and above past quarter...

estimated cash rose to 2.1 billion and above

1.7 billion cash in past quarter...

SMCI projects about 5 billion of inventory to

end 1st quarter and is above around

4.4 billion inventory of past quarter...

SMCI estimates that they have inventory

ready when NVDA starts delivering new chip

to market to go in DLC systems ready...

NVDA guidance moved to reserved while they

wait on the next chip coming to market...

SMCI gross profit projected at 13.3% for

1st quarter rebounded above past quarter...

CEO, with mega fortune on line, professed

intent to hire auditor and to maintain the

Nasdaq listing via an extension if needed...

e and y bus already did their run over of

company and company plans to keep

growing in the Ai biz...

Charles of SMCI stated that they are waiting

on new Blackwell chips to start coming from

NVDA to fuel future growth...

CC was going on when the sellers were

moving the after hours price down...

If you listened to CC you were able to

add cheaper shares when it was over...


so we watch...LJ