Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
INTC, gov't should give SMCI a billion grant
to cover building and opening new
Cal plants and adding jobs...
Some company has to help with the
hardware for all those new INTC
chips coming in the future...
So we watch...LJ
Outdoor network tech system video to watch to
pass time while waiting...
Canola oil had a big up day Tuesday,
up almost 5%...
This joint news in very interesting...
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/intel-aws-expand-strategic-collaboration-200100006.html
You can bet some competition found
it very catching of their attention...
SMCI diversifies services to both INTC
and AMD, and not to just NVDA...
which should help them in the long run...
Noticed that Ernst and Young has four offices
in the San Jose, Ca. area that may be why
SMCI changed auditors,,,
That is two biggies in the article link if
you don't forget to read it...
so we watch...LJ
SMCI, something needs to be done about hindenburg,
and the quick change attorneys that
follow the short attacks...
https://www.ielp.com/news-releases/news-release-details/icahn-enterprises-vindicated-dismissal-meritless-lawsuit
Best hope for SMCI shareholders is that.
of course the filings get done, but after
that there comes some disclosure of a private
nature, still under wraps, that would hopefully
reveal internal sexual misconduct being basis
for firing of employee that became a whistle
blower for hindengurg to swallow...
then the counter suits would be exciting...
We gotta cling to some hope now...
So we watch...LJ
Bad karma is in party that likes world
unrest to support economy...
The world can't support itself on old
school war spending like in the past...
Blacks have to consider whether they want
to risk seeing their young relatives sent
to war zones under another Dem control
period of four long years...
This long 3 1/2 years will seem like a cake
if Dems retain control of Senate and Oval
Office for another term...
Substantial number of new Army recruits
have gone thru training this summer...
Most likely the number was so high because
of low employment options elsewhere...
A large percentage of those will be black...
Black and white voting doesn't work...
Vote Trump for peace or Bad karma for
more world unrest...
Voting is key along with turning off the
media coverage...
Border security is favored by most
working hispanic citizens in the U.S...
Biden and Harris have done a poor
job of guarding fences that Trump had
built in his term...
so we watch...LJ
ok, will play along that line and gonna
wait for daily gap on HPE
to fill before entering again...
not sure how much t/a works with
SMCI in such dire straights now...
you might by weakness because you
like a certain number?...
so we watch...LJ
HPE was sold into upgrade pump strength...
INTC was added on big daily weakness
going into close with tired buyers...
Gov't pump on INTC has come as a
big surprise, don't ya know?...
It draws money flow from NVDA which
is propped up now on price for CEO
share sales like it is every month...
so we watch...LJ
VTLE and NOG were sold early in day
and way too cheap on VTLE sale...
NOG was added back before close
with dividend coming soon...
PR picked up as a laggard so far...
Inventory report shows that betters are
the ones driving up oil price...it shows
cushing sees draws in lower demand weeks...
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Crude-Oil-Product-Inventories-Climb-Pressuring-Rebounding-Prices.html
Betters may hold positions though with
lower rates possibly coming...
so we watch...LJ
SMCI, have read filings several times and
even before the short attack...
Still haven't grasped the straws that
the short attack is clinging to...
Many mega companies stay private
because there isn't anything wrong with
inter-family employees in a company...
Except in short attacks on Wall Street...
But they all seem well disclosed...
SMCI margins dipped two consecutive
quarters as they had to ramp up spending
to meet the higher contract flow coming in...
SMCI didn't seem to bloat any margin in
accounting for inventory build up...
And it impairs cash flow for short term...
Now it does puzzle me why such a closely
reviewed company was allowed to be
hammered down so hard by both the S&P
500 and Nasdaq 100 market makers...
Closer kin getting cheaper shares might
be in play with that...
Could be in play with the delay on the
filing from SMCI too...seems unneeded...
So we watch...LJ
could be a false rally in oil today...
betting on inventory report...
lower gulf production may have been matched
by lower refinery activity for Exxon/Mobil
in Baton Rouge area during storm...
rain impeded much auto gas use...
port exports were constrained to include the
big lng exports weekly...
peon thesis, of course...
so we watch...LJ
Bad karma can't pass a geography class
if it covers Defense forces...
Debate results are rigged by media...
https://apnews.com/article/poland-ukraine-war-us-election-trump-harris-eedfa6de06355a87ae4f04de40786899
U.S. has a lot of troops in Poland and
National Guard troops have been pushed
to go there instead of regular troops...
Civil attorney back grounding and real
world intellect of U.S. Defense and Border
Policy are worlds apart...
Voters know that Trump has more real
experience and had a stable world overall
under his tenure...And still has to abide by
his previous Oath of Office on what He
can and cannot divulge regarding Defense...
If Mr. Trump can just chill a let her keeping
putting her foot in her own mouth...
So we watch...LJ
GRRR should still be losing money on big
contract in Egypt...
Egypt contract was billed before the
EGP value dropped over 30%...
https://www.barchart.com/forex/quotes/%5EEGPUSD/interactive-chart
So, they get about 30% less revenue than the
original contract pr amount,,,
but the costs are in U.S. Dollar value for
much of them which computes to loss...
They have never mentioned another contract
big enough to bother revealing a number...
Those smaller contracts might bring over all
financial results above break even only???...
The pump pr is put out before actual results
May be released for 1st half results for 2024...
Allows some to escape before the release, if
they really put out a filing that soon...
A company that is Supposed to be a growth
company and already stated that they would
need more money to do another big contract
doesn't blow money on buying shares...
highly illogical to impair cash that may be
needed if they land another large contract...
GRRR showed impairing over 12 million of
accounts receivable at year end 2023...
For an IPO company starting in 2023...
https://www.otcmarkets.com/filing/html?id=17546343&guid=7lL-ka1smgrShoh
Four large investors holding about 35% of
stock are detailed in the filing...
And some want to get out...
GRRR showed about 46 million of cash at
year end 2023 and recently pr'd the 40 million
of cash as/at June 30, 2024...
which shows that they went basackwards...
or lost money in accounting terms...
They have that 40 million because most was
held in escrow after payment for further collateral
to guarantee completing Egypt contract...
And it was held in escrow as U.S. Dollars before
the EGP value plunged in early 2024...
Next filings will need to adjust values for the
Fixed Rate Egypt contract at the lower value
of the EGP if accounting is done properly...
Still need the EGP value to regain full value
of when Egypt contract was written for
GRRR to make some money on it most likely...
EGP value drop wasn't GRRR company's fault...
A pump pr to help some insiders off load shares
now is and was designed by the GRRR company...
Enjoy your rain on Tuesday night....
So we watch...LJ
You are due more rain than you may
expect as those bands roll out
on right side of the storm...
started to tell you to cover the tomatoe
plants if you don't want them wet, but
knew that you have local weather access...
Damdest thing that I've seen since 2010...
green yard and green pastures...
It is a nice sight to behold...
Yep, since 2010, lotta years of dry
weather in June thru August...
September is typically very dry,,,
we have to stock pile the 7 or 8 inches of
rain during past four days somehow...
ole oil price is rising again with the debate
in rear view mirror now...
so we watch...LJ
Grrr, investor in IPO which brought accounts receivables
in that had to be written off in a big
mass at year end 2023 also sold heavily
in fall of 2023 before earnings release...
It could be the alleged insider with so
many shares to allegedly buy back now...
A pr is just a pr...hard to verify any insider
share changes since it isn't done publicly
and probably doesn't change the public float...
Took heavy losses days ago and moving along...
So we watch...LJ
HPE had higher gross margin than DELL
in recent quarter,
and much higher than SMCI...
click on quarterly in each link...
https://www.otcmarkets.com/stock/HPE/financials
https://www.otcmarkets.com/stock/DELL/financials
https://www.otcmarkets.com/stock/SMCI/financials
Guess who didn't do a cut rate contract
with Tsla in that quarter?...
The short attack may also be designed to
push money flow toward DELL since it
keeps getting pumped with SMCI in the
Ai roll out reviews...SMCI price has now
been beaten down to lower margin look...
Longer term, the margins, may be higher
in the clouds...
So we watch...LJ
T.S. will lose some sales after going political...
Parents of Trump supporters may
or probably will deny funding to buy
her items for awhile...
Better to dodge the frey...
Nikkie is still available to save the
Republicans because Mr. Trump
will keep blabbing unneeded stuff...
focus on price of corn flakes...
so we watch...LJ
NIL money in college football has to make
you wonder about motivation
of players to do things...
so we watch...LJ
VTLE and NOG are partners in another deal,
which is higher oil weighted than last
big acquisition that VTLE did...
past deal was 50% weighted oil...
next deal is 64% weighted oil...
At $70/bbl for oil comparison break down...
past deal needed about 2.6 years for revenue
payback of purchase price...
next deal will need about 3.2 years for revenue
payback of purchase price...
estimates based only on oil revenue for the
payback estimate comparison...
estimates assume enough cap ex spending
to keep production stable which actually
increases the revenue payback period...
past VTLE deal got more land with it, but got
more gas production with it that must be
handled even if natural gas prices are weak...
VTLE will have WAHA natural gas hedged
in 2025 to offset handling costs when those
prices drift to zero or below...
Should have been doing that all along...
It is possible that readers of NOG pr may think
that VTLE is getting that lower production amount
which is based on 20% NOG buying into deal
which is much lower than VTLE percentage of
production will be,
which was in the VTLE pr on the deal...
that is my guess on the extra weakness of
VTLE and I'm sticking to it...
a rate drop will help debt load...
this artificial drop in oil and gasoline prices
framed for fall election purposes will change
when the New Year comes in after Christmas...
the ole Christmas gas price break always happens
to get suckers to over spend more...
A deal using debt instead of shares adds
EPS after deal completion...
so we watch...LJ
Refs stole a game from South Carolina,,,
a bad QB making a bad throw for
an interception is on defense as
soon as the ball is intercepted and
can be blocked, which is not a penalty...
REFS stole 6 points from South Carolina...
Georgia will lose to Ole Miss in November...
Georgia should also lose to Texas and
Tennessee if Alabama beats Georgia in
the game next weekend...
Kentucky QB could get hurt in SEC if he
keeps making decisions two foot steps
behind what the defenders are doing...
Ackward QB from Kentucky to watch...
Ohio State is week's big winner by being
IDLE for the weekend...
So we watch...LJ
30 minutes to we may crown you genius...
5:30 et, 4:30 ct...
so we watch...LJ
Francine is spinning out massive rain drops
in the outer bands...
Very, very big rain drops for a
tropical system to be dropping...
Doppler may be underestimating rain that
has fell, still falling, or to fall in this case...
Real rain reports will be interesting to
see reviewed after storm wrath completes...
Folks in Louisiana and Mississippi have
likely caught heck from this storm...
No Mississippi river drought after Francine
stalls in Missouri/Kentucky region...
So we watch...LJ
SMCI filed an ARS filing on 12/08/2023
which is similar to a 10K filing...
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1375365/000137536523000048/a302976supermicrocomputerr.pdf
It also detailed the relationships internally
between family members in the company...
SMCI could raise their ownership stake
in Ablecom via a stock deal to make it
under the SMCI umbrella and adapt to
all accounting standards of SMCI,,,
which could remove some reason for
any questions about the relationship...
so we watch...LJ
Does a sale or freeze have to be
requested before close to complete
it for that day?...
so we watch...LJ
HPE up almost 3%, DELL up over 3%,
buyers found other choices Thursday...
so we watch...LJ
VTLE starter shares bot on Thursday...
Most of their oil production hedged
around 77/bbl. in 3rd quarter with oil
price struggling to get back to 70/bbl.
is a screwup that holders must accept...
https://investor.vitalenergy.com/static-files/09e0804e-8df9-47af-a333-634eae16c7b4
So we watch...LJ
After 5:30 ET-pm today, gets bad luck date
of Friday 13th if filed Friday...
we won't need to watch it if they
don't file...
pretty crappy way to report anyway
you look at it, Imho...
so we watch...LJ
U.N can assemble more troops than Israel
has people if it takes that to clear
them out of Gaza...
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/clyn400rm68o
U.N. has between 70,000 to 100,000
troops already available at any given
time for peace keeping purposes...
so we watch...LJ
You seem to thinking clear headed
in such trying times...
really don't have a clue what
anything will do anymore...
all the small cap oils dropped Monday
but big oils were up...
then XOM dropped $4/share on Tuesday...
sector weakness for one thing...
so we watch...LJ
09/09/24, SMCI CFO expects margins to increase
back to more normal ranges for
them with 14% to 17% target...
Goldman Sachs transcript...
https://newsfilter.io/articles/super-micro-computer-inc-smci-goldman-sachs-communacopia--technology-conference-transcript-e41f1cc0ae1486529425b94c0d8308be
Also seemed positive on 2025 question
about company guidance...
Better clarity that guidance on Malaysia
is further forward looking than now...
So we watch...LJ
VTLE has something going on that doesn't
seem to be public yet by the
drop in the share price...
Would exit other oils first if you
have that much concern...
Last one standing potentially in a
lower price environment doesn't mean
that the share price would be higher...
Based on 2020 pillaging in the oil sector
prior to election, hints that this may not be
the time to be Brave yet...
WAG : Israel will try to screw the U.S.
permanently with a ceasefire prior to
election day to throw it to the Dem War
Party...ceasefire won't hold long if Dem
War Party maintains control...which would
make the oil sector look cheap in hindsight...
Peon thesis on the wag is Complex...
SHIPPING Costs are too high because the
U.S. Navy isn't being allowed to provide
safe shipping in the Red Sea between Gulf
of Aden and Suez Canal thru the Red Sea...
so we watch...LJ
if the great white hope says, drill
baby, drill, again tonight,,,
don't bother asking about any
oil stock prices...
but they will be reviewed as a courtesy...
so we watch...LJ
Most Ai parts may be coming from Taiwan...
Companies would have a quicker
parts supply access from China
because of larger scale of manufacturing...
SMCI, DELL, and HPE may be
facing similar supply line access...
DELL may have had some part reserves
for DLC assembly in 2nd quarter that
helped their margins stay above SMCI...
Probably not all parts, of course...
It should stay a tight market if the AI
roll out does continue for years...
GOTTA get Shipping Costs down that
are probably as high as the Actual Parts
orders for these companies...
Have some recent shipping receipts on
an import purchase to back that thesis
up even if it sounds nuts...
Customs fees and processing the paper
work alone add a decent toll...
Lot of hands in the Ai cookie jar that
some may never think about...
So we watch...LJ
U.N. will need troops to move Israel out
of GAZA similar to the past Bush
assembly of troops in Iraq...
https://apnews.com/article/un-guterres-gaza-israel-palestinians-ceasefire-bdd403003a4e005ea7ad2acf9072e552
This would appear more justifiable for
peace keeping force than Iraq was...
The level of suffering we are witnessing in Gaza is unprecedented in my mandate as secretary-general of the United Nations. I’ve never seen such a level of death and destruction as we are seeing in Gaza in the last few months.”
The war has killed over 40,900 Palestinians, according to Gaza’s Health Ministry. The ministry, part of Gaza’s Hamas government, does not differentiate between fighters and civilians in its count though it says about half of the dead have been women and children. Israel says at least 17,000 militants are among the dead.
This might change if Dems are voted out
of power in the U.S....
There are people in the U.S. that love
pets and don't approve of innocent
folks getting slaughtered...
herd em up for kill is slaughter...
so we watch...LJ
May be underwater literally before underwater SMCI
holdings ever see a 10K filing...
They have Tuesday left for me to
watch with a signal...
no signal, no pop up ads...
when it rains it pours...
https://www.investing.com/news/general-news/us-oil-firms-evacuate-staff-cut-drilling-ahead-of-storm-francine-3607778
so we watch...LJ
SMCI posting profit since 1990 may have
more credibility than short attackers...
https://financhill.com/blog/investing/is-smci-profitable
Just going with more logic than
emotion at this time...
Friday tested bottom support range around
385 to 400 area which should be reserved
for severe economic recession period...
So we watch...LJ
NOG, gulf well platform shut-ins could hit frantic
pace on Monday with new,
'oh chit, a hurricane' forecast
to possibly suddenly blossom...
Beaumont area of oil activity is in
early possible landing cone area,
which could possibly put a growing
intensity hurricane at landfall with a
heading to encounter or place oil
sector assets in Louisiana on right side
of the storm path...
Guidance is still early on where the storm
may make final heading...
Conditions are ripe to verify intensifying
tropical activity prior to landfall...
2.59/gallon gasoline top off on Sunday
afternoon at local Wally World....
A just reward for having to dodge so many
folks shopping on a Sunday afternoon...
Who have missed the memo on a slow
down in the economy...
Serious potential possibly brewing in
the gulf for mid week impacts...
probably should forget such cheap
gasoline prices next weekend...
So we watch...LJ
Market rally on Monday and Tuesday seems probable...
Would you want to go to a debate on
Tuesday night after last week's pitiful
week in the market?...
Might as well not show up if you are
with the control party now...
peon thesis, as always...
so we watch...LJ
SMCI is splitting 10:1 effective Oct. 1, 2024
that is from the Yahoo link...
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SMCI/
10 shares become 100 shares when a
10:1 forward split is done, and price generally
trades at 10% of recent days close...
$386 to $38ish post split at current price area...
$850 price target is the average of analyst
estimates shown on Yahoo...$85 post split...
$694 price target is the average of analyst
estimates on Market Watch from a bigger
pool to average from...$69 post split...
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/smci/analystestimates
Six analyst shifted to hold in past 30 days...
Trigger was delay of 10K filing for most analyst...
SMCI needs to get the 10K filing out Yesterday...
Recent video for fans on new Intel compatible product...
SMCI, an NAACP attorney handling any future
case to rebut hindenburg wouldn't
advise them to give any info out
other than public filings...
The insider trading dump on Monday
before hindenburg release should hint
that folks on the Street might need to
watched...
The big money Don't need any inside info
ahead of the public when they are down
grading the stock to follow the price...
Big server companies having trouble ramping
up production to meet Ai demand items is
the clue on customer reactions...
SMCI chose the already low pricing
strategy to gain market share as part
of a biz plan to try to capture more
service revenue in the future, where
the margins would be higher...
10K filing is needed, not chat time...
So we watch...LJ
HPE has gotten super cheap and has a
dividend coming up...
so we watch...LJ