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ORN - Yeah I'm with ya. Nice support at $2.82, sitting right on the 32 SMA. Looks attractive from a TA perspective IMO
AR.TO/ARNGF I sold a little bit awhile ago to free up capital for something else.
Until I see something with more potential where I want to swap out I'm going to hold the position. I think PM miners will have a wind at their back for awhile.
Not much out there that hasn't had some nice moves already. Northern Vertex (NEE) is a producer in the US that hasn't gone nuts. The unfavorable hedge to POG comes off this month and they're adding or have added additional another heap leach pad and have some nice OpEx savings planned this year
SYATF/SIM.V - Sold my very small position on the pop yesterday (left quite a bit on the table though). Just replaced it just north of 8 cents with some orders below.
The path forward certainly seems rosy but until it starts to show in the P&L going to keep just a tracking position so I don't forget about it
C28 - Wow what a fantastic call trading GORO for AR was! Argonaut up around 33% since then
I still have a fairly large position of GORO (much larger than Argonaut unfortunately). Guessing it'll take until sometime in Q4 for GORO to overcome Q2 and play catchup
Kindly suggest refraining from responding to political posts and redirecting via PM conversations to political boards.
LEAP options - Hard for me to imagine price of gold & silver being down a year from now. It seems all but certain there will be more monetary stimulus particularly when housing $hits the bed late 2020 early 2021.
You could also go generic with GDXJ or GDX so you're more well diversified
Interesting article thanks for posting. I understand the author says higher prices won't directly influence production but I think that's not necessarily true. AISC with silver byproduct offsets will make discounted cashflow models look better and of course if silver goes up I expect gold to be up as well.
It takes time for markets to stabilize supply and demand though so I've got my fingers crossed that we have a silver bull into the $20's or $30's
Disappointed in GORO. Their Q2 is gonna suck but it seems like the market is mostly looking beyond Q2 accepting COVID related losses are going to happen and it is a one-time.
I bought a fair bit of LEAP options on GORO. Maybe I should have waited. It'll work out eventually but tough seeing GORO trading sideways/down while we approach 8+yr highs in POG
GDX & GDXJ both up over 5%. Hoping GORO can get some legs
BISA - Someone prepping for a promo or reverse merger? Has had zilch volume for over 6 years until last week
ORN - Flipside is the stock is still below where it was in January
I have no position but looked b/c interested in quick trade potential. I'm guessing this is a fade back to close gap but who knows?
Welcome news Appeals court sides with exchanges in U.S. SEC fee row
NEW YORK, June 16 (Reuters) - A U.S. appeals court ruled on Tuesday that the Securities and Exchange Commission cannot force stock exchanges to conduct a costly experiment to see how the fees they charge and the incentives they offer affect brokers' trading habits.
The SEC's "Transaction Fee Pilot" aimed to shed light on how lucrative rebate payments from exchanges to brokers for stock orders that others can trade against influence the brokers' behavior.
Critics of the practice, including institutional investors managing tens of trillions of dollars, said the payments create conflicts of interest by incentivizing brokers to send customer orders to exchanges that pay the biggest rebates rather than to those that would obtain the best results for the end clients.
Intercontinental Exchange Inc's (ICE) NYSE, Nasdaq Inc(NDAQ) , and Cboe Global Markets Inc sued the SEC over the pilot program, arguing that the rebates are needed to compensate brokers for providing liquidity and that the SEC has not shown that they harm the market.
The U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit sided with the exchanges, which also said that without rebates, bid-ask spreads would widen, making it more costly to trade.
"The Pilot Program emanates from an aimless 'one-off' regulation, i.e., a rule that imposes significant, costly, and disparate regulatory requirements on affected parties merely to allow the Commission to collect data to determine whether there might be a problem worthy of regulation," the court said.
The pilot program, which was recommended by the an SEC-appointed committee of market experts as well as the U.S. Treasury in a report in late 2017, would have in some cases banned the rebates altogether for certain stocks and lowered exchange transaction fees for others.
"This was an unprecedented action that clearly exceeded the SEC's authority under the Exchange Act," the appeals court ruling said. (Reporting by John McCrank; Editing by Steve Orlofsky)
GORO - $75M stock issuance. WTF. No context provided by management
HTZ puts. I'm surprised the premiums aren't higher. On the Oct $3 and $4 strike puts there has been roughly $1 of potential profit (if HTZ goes to $0)
I can't believe the BK euphoria will last through to October AND the enormous shelf filing (and subsequent selling). I'm surprised however that arb desks haven't narrowed this more
EGLD - Eclipse Gold, drill results came out this past week. Some long strike lengths around grading around .8
Market seemed to like the news as the stock got a bit of a bump
I participated in an early financing and took some off in the .90's. Going to hold the rest as long as I can manage to so long as news is going in the right direction.
Betting on proven management team that they can do it again.
EGLD.V Eclipse Gold - Anyone take a look at Eclipse? Basically the Northern Empire management team. Property is in the US. They just listed earlier this year
Physical
I've been selling on ebay. The premium to spot with all the shutdowns of mints went through the roof. Would have been better if I waited 6 weeks to start selling but $20+ for a regular ol' 1oz silver round sounded too good.
Most of my 10oz silver bars sold were generic OPM bars and I still got the incredible premium to spot. Doesn't seem to matter much
GORO - Silver at $17/18oz has to be fairly substantial. Base metals pricing is garbage but they also benefit from lower energy prices.
What a turd Valuera ended up being. I sold my position and took a haircut.
If they had awesome news I believe we would have had it by now. I'm not a technical expert however from what I read the low porosity is a big problem.
Who knows at this point. I hope it works out for those still in but I hit max pain awhile back.
SCKT - Maybe they'll initiate a stock buyback program! eom
Rare earths getting some attention w/ possible export ban from Canada. Any favorites?
NEE.V - This video provides a nice overview of the project and prospects
Northern Vertex, NEE.V - Anyone check this little producing miner out? They operate the open heap leach Moss mine in Arizona.
435k M&I with just excellent opportunity to expand its resources with further exploration. They're just following an open outcropping so the technical aspect of the mining is pretty simple. They have two strong strategic backers in Maverick Metals and Greenstone Capital. They just did a financing round and are all cashed up. Commercial production started Sep '18 and their guidance is 40,000oz aueq in 2019 and 65k in 2020. Oh, and they have a strong experienced management team. CEO is Ken Berry who co-founded Kootenay Silver,
Link to Jan 2019 presentation
https://www.northernvertex.com/site/assets/files/2053/2019-01-13-cp_nee.pdf
EVTN - Well I am at somewhere like a 50% loss on my small position but it isn't comfortable. I hope your optimism matches reality and we see a nice pop. As it is I think the market understands the one-time'y'ness of earnings and it is priced as such.
VLE.TO/PNWRF - Very positive Inanli drilling update and a very muted reaction to the stock price.
Following previous management spending $6.5M on it.
Yes, that's how I read it anyway.
The Ryan's Steakhouse Story
I remember reading this a decade or more ago here on TGL and was reminded of it by a recent story I heard which made me a bit nostalgic. Enjoy
by Anonymous
Now, I know that there is a lot of embellishment that occurs on this group and I am aware that a small number of things are perhaps sheer fabrication, but I have a story to tell that is the absolute truth.
Funniest damn thing that has ever happened to me. A couple of weeks ago we decided to cruise out to Ryan's Steakhouse for dinner. It was a Wednesday night which means that macaroni and beef was on the hot bar, indeed the only night of the week that it is served. Wednesday night is also kid's night at Ryan's, complete with Dizzy the Clown wandering from table to table entertaining the little bastards. It may seem that the events about to be told have little connection to those two circumstances, but all will be clear in a moment.
We went through the line and placed our orders for the all-you-can-eat hot bar then sat down as far away from the front of the restaurant as possible in order to keep the density of kids down a bit. Then I started my move to the hot bar. Plate after plate of macaroni and beef were consumed that evening, I tell you - in all, four heaping plates of the pseudo-Italian ambrosia were shoved into my belly. I was sated. Perhaps a bit too much, however.
I had not really been feeling well all day, what with a bit of gas and such. By the time I had eaten four overwhelmed plates of food, I was in real trouble. There was so much pressure on my diaphragm that I was having trouble breathing. At the same time, the downward pressure was building. At first I thought it was only gas, which could have been passed in batches right at the table without too much concern.
Unfortunately, that was not to be. After a minute or so it was clear that I was dealing with explosive diarrhea. It's amazing how grease can make its way through your intestines far faster than the food which spawned the grease to begin with, but I digress... I got up from the table and made my way to the bathroom. Upon entering, I saw two sinks immediately inside the door, two urinals just to the right of the sinks, and two toilet stalls against the back wall. One of them was a handicapped bathroom. Now, normally I would have gone to the handicapped stall since I like to stretch out a bit when I take a good shit. But in this case, the door lock was broken and the only thing I hate worse than my wife telling me to stop cutting my toenails with a pair of diagonal wire-cutters is having someone walk in on me while I am taking a shit.
I went to the normal stall. In retrospect, I probably should have gone to the large, handicapped stall even though the door would not lock because that bit of time lost in making the stall switch proved to be a bit too long under the circumstances. By the time I had walked into the regular stall, the pressure on my ass was reaching Biblical portions. I began "The Move."
For those women who may be reading this, let me take a moment to explain "The Move." Men know exactly what their bowels are up to at any given second. And when the time comes to empty the cache, a sequence of physiological events occur that can not be stopped under any circumstances. There is a move men make that involves simultaneously approaching the toilet, beginning the body turn to position ones ass toward said toilet, hooking ones fingers into ones waistline, and pulling down the pants while beginning the squat at the same time. It is a very fluid motion that, when performed properly, results in the flawless expulsion of shit at the exact same second that one?s ass is properly placed on the toilet seat. Done properly, it even assures that the choad is properly inserted into the front rim of the toilet in the event that the piss stream lets loose at the same time; it is truly a picture of coordination rivaling that of a skilled ballet dancer.
I was about halfway into "The Move" when I looked down at the floor and saw a pile of vomit that had been previously expelled by one of those little bastards attending kids night. It was mounded up in the corner so I did not notice it when I had first walked into the stall. Normally, I would not have been bothered by such a thing, but I had eaten so much and the pressure upward was so intense, that I hit a rarely experienced gag reflex. And once that reflex started, combined with the intense pressure upward caused by the bloated stomach, four plates of macaroni and beef started coming up for a rematch.
What happened next was so quick that the exact sequence of events is a bit fuzzy, but I will try to reconstruct them as best I can. In that moment of impending projectile vomiting, my attention was diverted from the goings-on at the other end. To put a freeze frame on the situation, I was half crouched down to the toilet, pants pulled down to my knees, with a load of vomit coming up my esophagus.
Now, most of you know that vomiting takes precedence over shit no matter what is about to come slamming out of your ass. It is apparently an evolutionary thing since shitting will not kill you, but vomiting takes a presence of mind to accomplish so that you do not aspirate any food into the bronchial tubes and perhaps choke to death. My attention was thus diverted. At that very split second, my ass exploded in what can only be described as a wake...you know, as in a newspaper headline along the lines of "30,000 Killed In Wake of Typhoon Fifi" or something similar. In what seemed to be most suitably measured in cubic feet, an enormous plug of shit the consistency of thick mud with embedded pockets of greasy liquid came flying out of my ass.
But remember, I was only halfway down on the toilet at that moment. The shit wave was of such force, and of just such an angle in relation to the back curve of the toilet seat, that it ricocheted off the back of the seat and slammed into the wall - at an angle of incidence equal to the angle at which it initially hit the toilet seat. Then I sat down. Recall that when that event occurred, I was already halfway to sitting anyway and had actually reached the point of no return. I have always considered myself as relatively stable gravitationally, but when you get beyond a certain point, you're going down no matter how limber you may be. Needless to say, the shit wave, though of considerable force, was not so sufficient so as to completely glance off the toilet seat and deposit itself on the walls - unlike what you would see when hitting a puddle with a high-pressure water hose; even though you throw water at the puddle, the puddle gets moved and no water is left to re-form a puddle. There was a significant amount of shit remaining on about one-third of the seat rim which I had now just collapsed upon.
Now, back to the vomit...
While all the shitting was going on, the vomit was still on its way up. By the time I had actually collapsed on the toilet, my mouth had filled up with a goodly portion of the macaroni and beef I had just consumed. OK, so what does the human body instinctively do when vomiting? One bends over. So I bent over. I was still sitting on the toilet, though. Therefore, bending over resulted in me placing my head above my now slightly-opened legs, positioned in between my knees and waist. Also directly above my pants which were now pulled down to a point just midway between my knees and my ankles. Oh, did I mention that I was wearing not just pants, but sweatpants with elastic on the ankles. In one mighty push, some three pounds of macaroni and beef, two or three Cokes, and a couple of Big, Fat Yeast Rolls were deposited in my pants...on the inside...with no ready exit at the bottom down by my feet. In the next several seconds, there were a handful of farts, a couple of turds, and the event ended. Yet I was now sitting there with my pants full of vomit, my back covered in shit that had bounced off the toilet, spattered on three ceramic-tiled walls to a height of about five feet, and still had enough force to come back at me, covering the back of my shirt with droplets of liquid shit. All while thick shit was spread all over my ass in a ring curiously in the shape of a toilet seat.
And there was no fucking toilet paper. What could I do but laugh. I must have sounded like a complete maniac to the guy who then wandered into the bathroom. He actually asked if I was OK since I was laughing so hard I must have sounded like I was crying hysterically. I calmed down just enough to ask him if he would get the manager. And told him to have the manager bring some toilet paper. When the manager walked in, he brought the toilet paper with him, but in no way was prepared for what happened next. I simply told him that there was no way I was going to explain what was happening in the stall, but that I needed several wet towels and I needed him to go ask my wife to come help me. I told him where we were sitting and he left. At that point, I think he was probably assuming that I had pissed just a bit in my pants or something similarly benign.
About two minutes later, my wife came into the bathroom not knowing what was wrong and with a certain amount of worry in her voice. I explained to her (still laughing and having trouble getting out words) that I had a slight accident and needed her help. Knowing that I had experienced some close calls in the past, she probably assumed that I had laid down a small turd or something and just needed to bring the car around so we could bolt immediately. Until I asked her, I'm sure she had no idea that she was about to go across the street and purchase me new underwear, new socks, new pants, a new shirt, and (by that time due to considerable leakage around the elastic ankles thingies) new sneakers. And she then started to laugh herself since I was still laughing. She began to ask for an explanation as to what had happened when I promised her that I would tell her later, but that I just needed to handle damage control for the time being. She left.
The manager then came back in with a half-dozen wet towels and a few dry ones. I asked him to also bring a mop and bucket upon which he assured me that they would clean up anything that needed to be cleaned. Without giving him specific details, I explained that what was going on in that stall that night was far in excess of what I would expect anyone to deal with, what with most of the folks working at Ryan's making minimum wage of just slightly above. At that moment, I think it dawned on him exactly the gravity of the situation. Then that manager went so far above the call of duty that I will be eternally grateful for his actions. He hooked up a hose. Fortunately, commercial bathrooms are constructed with tile walls and tile floors and have a drain in the middle of the room in order to make clean up easy. Fortunately, I was in a commercial bathroom. He hooked up the hose to the spigot located under the sink as I began cleaning myself up with the wet towels.
Just as I was finishing, my wife got back with the new clothes and passed them into the stall, whereupon I stuffed the previously worn clothing into the plastic bag that came from the store, handing the bag to my wife. I finished cleaning myself off and carefully put on my new clothes, still stuck in the stall since I figured that it would be in bad taste to go out of the stall to get redressed, in the event I happened to be standing there naked and some little bastard kid walked in. At that point, I had only made a mess; I had not yet committed a felony and intended to keep it that way.
When I finished getting dressed, I picked up the hose and cleaned up the entire stall, washing down the remains toward the drain in the center of the room. I put down the hose and walked out of the bathroom. I had intended to go to the manager and thank him for all he had done, but when I walked out, three of the management staff were there to greet me with a standing ovation. I started laughing so hard that I thought I was going to throw up again, but managed to scurry out to the car where my wife was now waiting to pick me up by the front door.
The upshot of all this is that I strongly recommend eating dinner at Ryan's Steak House. They have, by far, the nicest management staff of any restaurant in which I have eaten.
I have 2020 puts. Q4 is going to be a disaster, these price targets by analysts are pointless. How many are there in the $200 range?
NX - Earnings next Monday & bought some here. It isn't cheap per se however the slowing housing market should be offset by a higher rate of remodeling as the more affordable houses require work. Last quarter they doubled their quarterly dividend and announced a $60M repurchase program which represents over 10% of the current market cap.
Additionally if you eyeball the chart the stock has historically (past 2 years) had an initial pop following earnings. Estimates are for .41 which seems a little steep to me but I'm banking on them meeting/exceeding which they've managed to consistently do.
They make cabinets, windows, doors, etc
https://www.quanex.com/products-and-solutions/
NTN - Given the 6k 3mo avg daily volume it would take QUITE a long time for anyone to take a large position in the open market.
Hopefully this shakes them up and instigates some more activism
EVTN reports .012 EPS. About what you expected?
You can find some articles on SA about Valero, crack spreads, and and in general refineries & where they get their oil from. I played Valero into their I think Q2 earnings based on the bottoming crack spread
HFC/Refiners - They make their money on the crack spreads they can generate. Crack spreads can fluctuate quite a bit and are different refineries based on the type of crude they are using & where they are getting it from (both which determine pricing).
I would suggest figuring out what their crack spreads look like. Could be selling at a TTM P/E of 7 b/c the outlook for their crack spread margin is awful
SMG followup
Not that anyone necessarily cares but the SMG short this past week didn't work. Despite poor results, bad guidance, poor performance in the core business and a 15% contraction in their MJ segment the stock traded up all week even in the face of triple digit DOW declines, MJ stocks getting crushed (CGC, KSHB, GRWG,etc) and a short article published on SA.
I have a suspicion that the company was buying back shares on open market during the week. It isn't a heavily shorted stock (< 10% O/S is short). Took my lumps this week and remain confused & befuddled. Could be I suck at trading.
Irrelevant imo. Vle will succeed or fail on inanli results
IVFH posts a turd. 4/10 cent EPS. Revenue for the quarter increased $1.55M while COGS increased $1.47M....
Wasn't happy to be selling in the .60's but happy I did so now in hindsight. People who argue Q4 is going to be big b/c of iGourmet -> Given that COGS is nearly entirely variable think about how much sales would have to increase to contribute. $1.6M of incremental revenue generated $80k of gross margin. Once you consider the SG&A to support that increase in operations it might actually be generating a loss to the bottom line.
Ugh, IVFH was a huge winner for me but this year has been a big mistake.
HCLP - There's no way they will hold the dividend IMO. Even if they project adequate cashflow they should have the opportunity to acquire assets given the crushing reality of increasing supply and a declining oil price.
I could be an idiot though too, so just ignore what I post.
VLE.TO/PNWRF - Decimated -35% on ER & operational update. Market is not happy about the water coming up from Yam (despite not yet reaching 100% put down hole) and substantial decrease in production.
Yeesh! I bought some more shares here. Only another 45 days to go hopefully until we get some more definitive info on Inanli.
S&P fighting to drop further. Maybe we're at the start of a bigger correction? S&P isn't too far from the dreaded "death cross" of the 50 moving average crossing below the 200.
SMG $75 weekly puts. The stock has had some nice gains post earnings based b/c of MJ pumps despite terrible earnings and guidance. A recent short article is out on seeking alpha
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4221523-poor-performance-scotts-miracle-gro-continues