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TSLA lowered pricing because it had too --- i.e., sales were plummeting to only be saved by price cuts. So, this is the farthest thing from lowering the boom vs. saving their own shirt. TSLA hasn't faced any severe competition until now and it'll be interesting to see how they try and defend themselves. TSLA margins will start to resemble car manufacturer margins, which should have an interesting impact on the share price.
Housing is seasonal with Q4 and Q1 being the weakest periods for housing and peak buying season being in Q2 and Q3. Thus, there's always an increase in the number of buyers hitting the market at the end of Q1, that has nothing to do with anything but typical seasonality. The fact is housing affordability hasn't been worse and either buyers will move down to smaller, lower-priced homes or house prices on average need to get repriced lower. Housing corrections historically take years to play-out not quarters, and if unemployment increases to where the Fed wants it to go over the next 12 months, it'll have a negative impacts on housing.
We all know this is a stupid comment, however, the wealthiest 10% of American families own 90+% of all U.S. equities, so by that fact the "non-wealthy" own an insignificant amount of shares.
Given the media blames the Biden administration for inflation and higher oil prices (which is utter non-sense), it's not surprising the Administration has pushed back on CVX and other energy companies for not investing more capital in increasing supply. Inflation negatively impacts the poorest the most and the Administration should be focused on trying to help them, otherwise, it turns into much worse problems for all of us.
Nobody is here to argue, except you who calls posters trolls. I stated a fact. What is there to clarify? Happy to chat / discuss other topics that require debate. if you care about the readers of this board you should be focused on posting factually correct information, as should all other posters.
The Atlanta Fed is estimating Q4 2022 real GDP to be significantly positive (3.0% - 4.2%), and thus, we won't have enough data between now and 6 months from today to determine whether we're in a recession (assuming no new significant one-off shocks to the world / economy (i.e., Terrorist attacks, World War, New pandemic, etc.).
Remember we had two negative real GDP growth prints in Q1 2022 and Q2 2022, and we were definitely not in a recession.
FY 2023 earnings revisions have barely started to be announced... We have at least two or three quarters of revisions, and to think the market is bottom fishing at current levels is wishful thinking at best. A simple bottoms up calculation using a reasonable PE multiple, and the S&P trading at 3,000 is very possible ($200 EPS x 15).
What should they do? Inflation needs to get under control and although its headed in the right direction, stopping now could easily reverse the improvement we've seen and result in very sticky inflation that leads to much higher rates than is needed. Q4 real GDP growth is expected to be 3.5-3.9%, salary / wage gains, and service cost inflation are still well above levels under a 2.0% inflation environment, and given the strong real GDP growth current and higher rates are well warranted. Significantly lower rates (0-2%) aren't in the cards unless there's a major credit market blow-up or severe recession, which neither appear in the cards. It's interesting everyone is complaining about the Fed moving rates to levels that are still low compared to historical averages. Definitely some pain ahead, however, it's needed to flush out the extreme excesses / insanity that was created from zero rate investment environment.
He didn't make 300% in one day. He just bought back one call and sold a new call at a premium 300% higher than what he bought back (i.e., covered premium for 10 cents, and sold a new call for 30 cents).
You don't understand the deal which is only $2 billion a year (vs. your $2.5 billion). ANYONE can be an NFL Ticket subscriber thru YouTube, not just a YouTubeTV subscriber --- thus, they're going to see significantly higher numbers than DirecTV which was sold only to DirecTV subscribers.
Good luck with that --- try converting buildings that have 60-70% occupancy from office to residential. Just not possible. It'll take many, many years to complete a conversion.
50 basis points was in the cards since Powell said months ago he was was planning to slow the pace of hikes. Anyone thinking otherwise has been sleeping at the wheel.
Powell has communicated multiple times there will be a slowing in the pace of rate hikes in December = 50 bps. Discussion of any other bp hike is beyond a waste of time.
Key isn't whether there will be an "economic" recession but an "earnings" recession. Top market strategists are forecasting next year's S&P 500 earnings between $180-$210, apply a reasonable multiple 15-18x = 2,700 - 3,800. It's going to be difficult to avoid an earnings recession next year, IMO.
Most shorts are hedge funds that also have long positions and thus, there's a wide variety of reasons why they may be short RVNC. Some may be betting the eventual launch may not go well, some might be doing a pairs trade (long EOLS and short RVNC), some may have a negative view on Biotech and are shorting a basket of names, etc.
This calculator is useless and nobody should be using it as a proxy of fair value. Do some real diligence, build a model, don't throw every company into the same ridiculous high level fair value proxy calculator utilizing the same book value and P/E multiples.
I highly recommend focusing on determining accurate cash flow and EPS numbers vs. utilizing the non-sense that is reported or found on Yahoo Finance. Also, downward earnings revisions have just started which means there is a long way to go before earnings and equities bottom out.
What are you talking about? Clearly, less thinking is what you need to be doing. TWTR is now a private company owned by Elon Musk and certain other investors, and thus, you will not be able to own TWTR if they do an IPO sometime in the future (years away if ever).
The problem with top down analysis --- very few people have the data and willingness to spend the time to truly understand what is actually going on in the economy until well after the fact. You thought the Fed was going to do a couple rate hikes for the year and stop, you also didn't think the Fed was going to raise 75 basis points last month nor 75 basis points in November even though Powell has been clear as mud on both.
WHR should have been an obvious short --- but why wasn't it? Because your view of interest rate expectations and the corresponding impacts on the housing market / housing related equities were nowhere near reality. So, how did your top-down analysis help you from a return standpoint in 2022?
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. WHR cratered 60+% during the GFC. Given the Fed has no plans at cutting rates for at least a year and then not significantly, WHR is facing some sizable headwinds in 2023 and likely 2024.
Fed pauses / pivots / rate decreases aren't a sign of market bottoms. Past history would tell you the Fed cuts rates well in advance of market bottoms. There's a long way to go before this cycle is played out...
The match was lit when housing prices peaked in June 2006 and with all great housing corrections it takes years for it to play out. Years worth of firewood was cut, stacked, and neatly piled as subprime players filed for bankruptcy in 2007 and Bear Stearns injected $3+ billion in June 2007 to bail-out one of its subprime bond hedge funds. Then came the take-unders and bail-outs Countrywide (January 2008), Bear Stearns (March 2008), Fannie Mae / Freddie Mac bailouts (July 2008), followed by the big daddy Lehman Brothers bankruptcy (September 15, 2008) and AIG bailout (September 16, 2008), and Merrill Lynch merger (September 2008) and collapse and merging of Washington Mutual (September 2008).
I fully disagree with your comment, Dew. Roubini didn't change from bearish to bullish in March 2009, which is exactly in-line with the bullish who never turned bearish and road the markets down from the highs in late 2007 to March 2009. The GFC was the most obvious economic downturn in history and the vast majority of economists and investors didn't see it coming (what were they looking at???) and spent a good number of years trying to climb back to even.
There are valid arguments for his comments and it wouldn't be surprising to have low single digit average annual equity returns for a decade. Unlike the past couple of decades, the Fed isn't going to rescue markets with QE / significantly lower interest rates. Once inflation is under control (i.e., very close to 2%), the Fed will likely shift rates lower but zero bound rates and QE aren't coming back unless there's a crisis that seizes the financial system. Thus, higher interest rates for the foreseeable future, which unlike the last few downturns (Dot.com, GFC, COVID), will likely cause a significant number of business restructurings, bankruptcies, etc., as well as, lower equity valuations.