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I think Sarissa last purchased around Sept, 2023, is that correct? I know there are wild theories out there about Denner not wanting to be a 10% holder so he could short shares. I guess anything is possible, but with all the legal scrutiny he has gotten over the last year(s) I find it hard to believe he would be aggressively shorting a company that he essentially controls. Whether it's legal or not, it's just a very bad look if it ever came to light. I think a more plausible scenario is "if" he is in active discussions with suitors, he is going to keep his hands more than clean by letting at least 6 months go by without a purchase. Wishful thinking perhaps, as its obviously self serving, but it is nice to dream about.
I won't be surprised if we see some large block trades AH this week. I think
Denner will scoop up as many shares as possible before releasing any news about it. Pretty sure they have to release their buy back purchases within a certain window, so maybe they buy buy buy this week and disclose it on Monday.
Why does that last filing show cash/investments at $241m? I thought we were at $320m, or worst case $270m if they already bought shares ?
Are the judges still deliberating? Is this normal to take so long for an answer from them?
Are CMKX shares worth anything , or was there a class action or payout?
What happens if Denner can't find a buyer and has had enough? Obviously the SP takes a hit if he sells off, but does he just pull everyone off the BOD? Is Holt left on his own and has to reconstitute the board?
All i know is Denner continues to buy shares and he knows more about the health and possibilities of this company than any of us. I don't "believe" in him, but I'm happy to roll the dice and follow his lead. Hoping we all make money here.
I blocked/muted him so long ago. It has made the world a better place. I feel like Neo as I've rewritten the matrix in my own version.
I think that's the point. If Sleven had said he talked with someone and they said all the results were mind blowingly positive, not a one person would be asking for facts or for a "source." You all know it's true.
I agree JRoon. Reading Sleven's posts and it all seems genuine. I don't sense an agenda at all. But kinda wacky how quickly folks will grab pitchforks when someone dares to steal their "hope."
Truth of the matter is Brave was always a hail mary. I don't think it is factored in at all in the price so if it truly has failed I wouldn't expect a big hit on the share price.
Rock on, Sleven. Thanks for trying to keep people informed.
Maybe. I guess impossible to know. For the life of me, I can't see the short play here at $.82. If I was short AMRN, I'd be happy with the $$ I made and close it out and move on to find a better option.
At approx 11:40am today, I would venture to say the same buyer bought a boat load of Jan $1.5's, and then also bought some Jan and March $1 calls. Lots of contracts for pennies. Not a ton of exposure but a lot to gain if their is a pop in the next 21 trading days. Playing Brave results? Got me tempted to grab some.
Denner "Shouldn't" have any more of an idea on Brave results than we do, but if he thought for a moment the results were going to be game changing, then I would guess his recent purchase would have been 40m instead of 4m.
I think Denner takes his position to 9.9%.
"As much as I warned everyone about giving Denner full control of the board and the company"
obviously , you're stretching there, Sir. Giving Denner "full" control was never on the table, not even for him. He fell backwards into that when the old BOD quit.
We voted to give them influence. None of us could have foreseen how this would play out.
Looks like
Denner's divorce may be over? Last update from today says "Judgement of uncontested dissolution". I'm no lawyer but that sounds final to me. Hope that it's true and he no longer has this hanging over his head. Only benefits us as shareholders if he has less distraction. Onward and upward!
Speaking of which,
Concentra/Tang just offered $1.25 to buy RAIN this morning.
13F says they bought just under $300k last week, between $.97 and $.99. I think they own about 14% of this company.
If they came after AMRN with a low ball offer, I'm guessing Sarissa would laugh them away. But, assuming Tang still holds their AMRN shares, then they evidently see some value in our lil ole company.
If the company wasn't
controlled by Sarissa, I wouldn't be surprised to see Concentra come knocking with an offer.
March, 2023: Concentra Biosciences swoops in during reverse merger plans for Jounce Therapeutics. Makes a superior offer with 75% premium.
May, 2023 : Concentra offers to buy struggling Atea for a 55% premium (2m shares bought by Tang Capital in Q2)
Concentra is reported to be majority owned by San Diego-based life sciences investment fund Tang Capital Partners. CEO is Kevin Tang.
Tang Capital is now the 5th largest shareholder in AMRN(going by # of shares), as of 6/30/2023.
Tang recently bought another 1.7m shares of AMRN in Q2. They now own over 7m shares and appear to have purchased them all in 2023.
Curious to see if they bought/sold more shares in Q3. Guess we'll find out in the next 29 days.
Feels appropriate right now:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lingchi
Not too much excitement going on. Holiday season coming so feels like we're just going to slow down until next year.
I watch for updates every week , hoping to see these 2 fine folks settle it up. Sooner they resolve this the better. For them, obviously, but I'm hoping we get a rejuvenated, refocused Doc. Denner who puts all his energy into this investment of his.
https://civilinquiry.jud.ct.gov/CaseDetail/PublicCaseDetail.aspx?DocketNo=FSTFA226055873S
No way the
board agrees to that. They work for us, they don't work for Denner.
Oh damn.
I'm not at all hopeful on Brave, (but of course i'm slightly hopeful on Brave). But, didn't someone mention a couple months back that the administrator of the trial had some sort of lukewarm comments about it? I just remember something was said that made this long shot even more of a long shot.
"or some other whale comes along to challenge Denner "
(watch for Tang, the dark horse)
Only downside is if Denner is buying now, I'm guessing they don't expect any material events happening for 6 months? Other than that I couldn't be happier. Yes he provided that dam at $1.00 and all of his open market purchases were great.Shows confidence in the company and is a great morale boost for Holt. I would love to see some of the current BOD follow suit with some open market buys.
I'm playing the man(Denner).
I don't see 2024 AMRN looking anything at all like 2023 AMRN.
Fundamentals are awful right now.
The only thing that keeps me from selling at a substantial loss is the fact that Denner is still in it, his BOD of merry men are loaded with cheap shares, and his #1 guy Holt has every incentive to raise the SP. I feel like they "have" to know something we don't. Why would Holt even come on board and spend $300k (TBD) of his own cash? Why are all these hedge funds increasing their positions? I do believe Denner is working a play, and we are just the last ones to know about it. I'm hoping he surprises us all with some good news this year, and if not I hope he has a Plan B to dump this baby for $5-$8/share to a BP and let them sell this drug.
Rosemount: I agree with a lot of what you say.
I actually wish the MKT/ILJIN activists were a bit more aggressive. We'll never know if they made a deal to back off or not, but seems like they talk a lot but haven't seen a whole lot of action. I wonder if the CEO and Board take them seriously or not.
My greatest fear is they are just wasting time and putting on a show of effort with this SR. I noticed in the CC that he specifically mentioned he was doing this based on shareholders request and was careful to throw in "fiduciary duty."
Frankly, I don't think BP can afford to "not" buy them out, after this beat. I listened to the entire CC again and some parts 3 and 4x .I'm more convinced of the value here than I ever was before. I also think PG doesn't really want to sell. My opinion, but that's just what I took from his wording and inflection. Or maybe he is willing to sell but he isn't happy about it.
Either way, the numbers don't lie. AUPH has the momentum and the cash to survive on their own if need be.
No one really knows the potential yet for AUPH 200 and 300 (?), but that could cause a delay on a deal. PG might think it's better to wait and develop that pipeline to increase the premium.
Bottom line no one knows. But I do feel better about holding on to this position.
lol.... If you don't like it then sell. I'm sorry that you seem to be having such an emotional day.
No one is in denial. I think everyone here knows Denner will eventually make a killing on this. No one thinks he is altruistic, or the next Messiah, or he has any concern with making us rich.
But, we're still here because we figure we can make some money following his lead. That's it.
JRoon: If you're right and they(or friends) are shorting to keep the price low, collect their options and preferred, then gladly cover and drive the price up, it's brilliant enough to get me to quit my job at Dairy Queen and apply to be an intern at Sarissa.
Cuz obviously I'm in the wrong line of work.
Jroon: My bad.
And I recognize that there may come a day where those preferred shares cost us commoners some $$$. It's obvious they will. Not sure if it will be Denner who owns them or not.
But, compares to where we've been and where we're at right now, I think most of us will take $6 or $8, even a slightly higher price could have been available w/o those preferred.
I look at it as the cost of doing business. I hate paying attorneys and accountants etc, but it's essential.
For those who voted for Sarissa, we essentially "hired" Denner and his merry crew to come in and salvage this company and sell it for us. Gotta pay the guy you hired if he does what you hired him for.
Look at it however you want. I don't care. You guys sat here and vilified Tat for floating a scenario where Denner puts himself in front of the shareholders and then , surprise surprise.
I realize Denner isn't looking out for my personal benefit. But I can still personally benefit if I recognize what he's doing to benefit himself and do my best to align my timing with his.
Stocks trading at a buck. If Denner can get this thing to $6, or $10 or $15, I'll take it all day long and be just fine with it. Won't bother me in the least that him and his team and Holt make 10's of millions. Good on em. As long as I make money too that works for me.
The one thing I keep reminding myself is we are all on the same side(finally). Yes, it would appear that AD/BOD/CEO will be rewarded handsomely for their efforts. Like Ramfan just said, as long as we're riding their coattails, who cares? I won't fault them for structuring the system so they get paid. I see where this headed. The folks in charge appear to have 2 priorities: Get the share price up and sell the company. Frankly, that's music to my ears.
Are those $100m worth of shares preferred shares? Can Sarissa just buy that entire block, if they wanted to, at any point, giving them a senior position in front of common shares(similar to the situation that Tatsumaki floated)?
I don't expect one iota of bad news tomorrow. Would make no sense to give us bad news piecemeal. Drop it all last week and be done with it. I think that's why they did the surprise call as well. Rip the bandaid off and I expect earnings tomorrow to be as dry as corn flakes.
Now that the BOD and CEO are all strapped in, I would hope to see nothing but progress from this point on.
Hats off to the CEO. He could've easily held that news for a day, and not risk losing money on a run up today. Maybe the news would have got out either way but I'd like to believe he took the selfless road here. Great sign for things to come!
I, for one, don't want to risk an earnings call or hearing the CEO answer questions that could cause a sell off.
AUPH is really good at disappointing so I'm not getting too excited about tomorrow, but I'm still hopeful we get some news in the next 2 or 3 days.
1. i would imagine he'd want to wait till after 8/1.
2. how do we know he hasn't been buying? don't they have a 90 day window before they have to file a 13F?
fwiw i actually find Tatsumaki's posts insightful and unbiased. It may not make me feel good to think Denner would take control of the company for pennies, but it's a fantastic reminder for all of us to look at this objectively. Denner is going to make his $$ the easiest/quickest way he can.
If we're along for the ride, great. If not, then we may get burned.
Tats, keep the great posts coming.
I agree. Announce the bad news now. Share price stays low. Collect options at a lower strike price and the next day announce any good news.
I also believe the quorum thing was smoke and mirrors. I think that meeting was intentionally delayed by a month.
Denner is doing his thing and knows exactly what to do to make his money. Now he has Holt on board. I'm just gonna do my best to ride their coat tails and make a little cheese.