Alea

hello

I was thinking similar thoughts. Years ago I would have expected a solid investment gain if Wave achieved software inclusion in 100 million devices, having GM and PWC as major corporate adopters and having some contractual agreements with just about every PC maker never mind being hired for security consulting projects by the government. However the passage of time has not been our friend and it seems the hurdle for material success keeps getting raised. It feels like they need to really explode over the hurdle to generate the necessary momentum to achieve a real investment gain. Else barge's market cap prediction will fall well short or be tied to more shares and not price per share.

Regards

Mig

"Groundhog Day" fits Wave like no other. You can come to this board, read the discussions, observe the stock price patterns and not know if you are in 2000, 2005, 2009 or entering 2011. Community members are born, die, get married and divorce, retire while the story continues like in a parallel universe. Perhaps its because I traded in my Wave license plate (but not the stock) after 11 years that it will now be successful.

BB

Wave may have never provided an upside surprise with respect to revenue. Quite the contrary unfortunately.And the way the stock was moving, there had to be some anticipation of a postive surprise somewhere. While the ;list of new customers contained some new good ones, there was not much to jump on. If you are thinking of bridge jumping, you may wish to buy a float or a parachute.

Steven

"Common knowledge" is a term of art and while I do not recall seeing anything on the board that certain, I beleive you are correct in yiur assertion. Maybe being gov't. owned helps.

kingsfull

It is absolutely correct to consider market cap or other measures which reflect outstanding shares and revenue and earnings. The decades of refinancing have a cost and looking at price alone is simply inadequate. It would be interesting to know who is buying the shares today - it would make me feel a lot better if its new investors with reasonable resources versus the core group that never seems to have enough.

If one was here when wave went from $2.50 to $40+ on a day to day increase for no fundamental reason in hindsight, you can't avoid some skepticism. But despite three years of excess expectations, it seems like a positive quarter may actually occur and that is an important milestone to avoiding the never ending dilution.

Wave has never suffered from infinite potential - that was true in 2000 and true today.

Actually 3 times 45 on a pre split basis. But the Nasdaq was also at 5,000. Unfortunately those old prices, while real at the time, were part of the 2000 illusion.

A better measure is probably 15 to 20 or 45 to 60 pre split where the stock traded for a relatively long time and many had a chance to buy and sell at. If current Wave ever gets to 45 to 60, I would view it as a return to a price you really could have rationally sold at (thats the real opportunity lost in my opinion). At the time 15 times shares outstanding was not an absurd market cap if Wave actually was selling a real product. Of course as we now know, their current revenue is about what we predicted 8 years ago.

When the Intel news came out a number of years ago, we really generated huge volume immediately and throughout the day. And I mean huge. While this is impressive given the recapitualtion, Wave has printed so many shares since that I suspect there is more outstanding now than there were years ago (but I have not checked).

This type of excitement in Wave and the share price is a cyclical thing. It was astonishing back in 1999, it had a small resurgence with Intel and now amazingly it may be starting again.

I hope the slogan "threes a charm" works. Its just a shame that we needed to print so many shares to reach this point. But better late than never.

We'll see.

when it comes to HP it is difficult to tell fiction from non fiction starting from the day they did not integrate Wave into their security suite. More recently the spin was that Wave was welcome to be bundled into HP's offerings but it was on Wave's dime to do the development work. It will be interesting to see how this deal moves things forward and under what terms.

Brant

It is possible that the market may actually be forming and it now is in HP's benefit to have a firmer and structured deal with Wave. But it remains to be seen how this translates into actual sales - its not as if we haven't secured other contracts and relationships with major players in the past. Still given the particular history here, there must have been a catalyst.

Go-Kite

It is not unusual for there to be a delay in seeing it on Edgar. At least I experienced that with a recent transaction involving my firm. Besides you have waited 10 years, 6 marriages, 2 deaths, many retirements, global warming and who knows what else for this next step. Remember they were ready to go but there were some problems with the demo machine and their readiness so an alternative path was taken....

EDS redux

If you don't follow the board or wave happenings too closely and then reengage, its amazing how things keep repeating itself. Besides the growth in revenues-

we still are very hopeful to reach cash flow positive next quarter

we are once again at a problematic level with respect to the NASDQ

we are demoing a new capability with an Intel product

we are that much closer to the government global contracts

And we now have the successor of EDS to help push the whole security management paradigm to clients

I have not looked at the other boards in years. Are the naysayers gone or are they still discussing Sprague theft and Waves demise. It appears that Wave may outlast us all regardless of market success.

I think you posit is flawed.If I were the key insiders with significant holdings already (they will get wealthy upon success organically or if wave is bought out). If your income is dependent on the company and you will be wealthy if successful, why double down and put further funds at risk. Its true if you were guaranteed of success you could question why you don't just buy more, but by now with two market meltdowns in a decade, it is obvious that there is hughe rsik over extending in the market never mind a specific stock regardless of history. Thats what risk managment and diversification is all about. There are no sure things.

mrhockeyman

As you are well aware, many factors including diversification and risk management impact a decision to buy a specific stock. While it would be encouraging to see insiders buy lots of stock on the open market, I can also appreciate a decision to manage risk. Its not as if insiders don't have a lot at stake already including their shares and their annual compensation.

But if a key criteria for you is if insiders are buying stock on the open market in addition to their holdings from their job, then Wavx is not for you.

This issue has been so disected already, that there is really nothing more to say about it.

They also don't always follow the rules but I don't personally see the linkage between loaning your Wave shares to somebody else and you having an outsatanding margin balance. Maybe he can refer you to their policy in writing. The margin account distinction makes more sense to me. FWIW

This ? has come up throughout the years. If you are in a margin account, they can lend your shares. To prevemnt that, you need to change the type of account to non margin. Normally you can just request that.

They did rot but Wave has been resilent and replanted them several times over. Thats why their core competnecy in financial engineering may pay off to some degree, with the best benefits to those who came in later rather than sooner. But hindsight is not an investment strategy.

OOT

Good point. for years folks thought Wave would be a multi billion dollar company based on hope. Now that there are legitimate reasons to believe they are in a great posiiton to benefit from our more enlightened government and associated companies, folks are wondering whats happening. There is little doubt that many of the seeds previously planted are beginning to sprout.

hockeyman

For someone who was concerned about their brother's investment with little knowledge of the company itself, your subsequent posts are quite illuminating. I find it amusing and interesting that you can read a few lines of someone's initial post and regardless of their desire to be opaque, you can almost with certainty know whether they are full of it or not.

Its sort of obvious that the company is epxosed to numerous risks from an execution and competitve standpoint and that they have been operating on cash fumes for longer than most people can possibly believe. But there are believers here (and many who are trapped and hoping) but you'll need to identify something of new and substance to alter any opinions If that's your real purpose).

Ok

It seems to me that Wave can be at a very important inflection point in terms of major sales today while having screwed up previous opportunities while making poor business decisions in the past. These are not incompatible states. The latter seems somewhat self evident; the former will play out this year.

It should be noted that these same discussions have taken place periodically as Wave has consistently partnered or associated with promising people and companies but those efforts did not result in any obvious success. Clearly the partners also thought there was something there so everybody should not feel as if they were stupid believing (lots of reasonably informed people did). Also it is quite plausible that those "failures" did lay the ground work for what we hope to be future success.

OKNPV

I can understand your perspective that Wave's inability to sell their products is due to factors outside their control. Its tough to fully agree with this but it is a straightforward premise. But that hardly seems like good evidence that they have a top notch sales force. They may be trying or maybe not but the lack of success is hardly a sign of competence, effort, insight or anything else. Also tele's discussion about his WXP experience sounds incredibly right on. I have seen it many times - a really smart person talking about something they really know well but not having the correct approach for selling the service. Can't you see SKS talking a lot and missing the point.

Zen

In fairness we are neither the solution nor the problem. I can perfectly understand why someone who has lost a lot of money and heard over the years a myriad of promises or forecasts fall way short would want to provide a counter point to posts that quite frankly seem naive from an investing standpoint. If it really impacted the stock price, then it owuld be stupid as you are shooting yourself in the foot. And maybe back 7 years ago it did. But now it is up to Wave to execute or not and we are more like very interested spectators. And none of us are silly enough to recommend it to friends anymore so we really are more spectators with perhaps an intellectual interest in the topic and a sincere hope that some solution actually protects our IT infrastructure from some really bad guys who are out there and trying.

telstarjohn

It seems to me that the gov't is reaching a material decision point on how to secure its IT infrastructure for the future. If it goes the way we hope, the impact to Wave would be more than mega material (it would be Intel to the 10th power). While I don't know the Admiral personally, the bio suggests that he is as connected as you could be to the departments and decision makers. You say he may not be the cure all-- hard to say but if Wave gets locked into the underlying infrastructure for gov't., and in turn public and private companies who do business with the government have to adopt a similar infrastructure, Wave could become ubiquitous.

okay Barge its Obama

And then they will apologize that the drive was not encrypted.

Snackman

You are probably right that the reward/risk ratio at .70 is very attractive now. Wave through an odd combination of financial engineering, and obstinate investors and management pursuing a product/service offering that few understood or believed viable has finally made it to the place where most companies that go public start from.

What is still a deep unknown is the profits they will derive in the future. The potential range is extraoridinarily wide since we don't know their pricing power when volumes are high and they are dealing with large companies. Clearly the fact that their most likely competitors have not deeply invested in the space yet will be good leverage. However whether management has the skills to extract an extra positive deal remains to be seen.

Howard

You have been following this stock for years and years. By now I would think that you would recognize that there is little to no or even a negative correlation between Wave's short term stock price change and the general markets. Wave is all about specific risk and maybe loose lottery money for some. Given the economic upheaval, there should be no connection to this short term bounce and Wav's share price changing. In the same manner, if Wave announces some big success it will go up even if the market goes down 5%. That has certainly happened several times and I don't recall you and Kev pointing that out. Again this is specific company risk.

escrow

Although to date it appears to the outside that most wave speculation is fiction, the truth is that the stories were often based on facts (sometimes burnished a bit). Their ability to have relationships with so many different mainstream vendors is an indication that many saw some virtue and opportunity utilizing wave's products but as we know ultimately none were really able to leverage them into something big. the list is so long its hard to believe.

You're right things have been close at times and sometimes it was a champion leaving and wave did not have a deep enough reltaionship to recover, sometimes it was the market, sometimes it was the technology, sometimes it was inertia and sometimes the idea was really not viable as a business.

I think if you look back in the past, there have been other times when things looked great and almost guaranteed but never turned into something. Dell is really the only thing that seems to have stuck but that has fallen way short of expectations so far. But whether it is Walmart or Northrup or finance companies or NSA, we can only hope that one will see something through and they and the public will realize that the solution is really that much better and valuable. Then the sky is the limit; otherwise we are the standard that never got adopted.

oclv99

All of your forecasts assume some kind of steady growth. If for example companies just defer new PC purchases or other IT initiatives until they feel more comfortable about the future, then the sales and revenue go down a lot and revenue only represents recognition of amounts deferred earlier.

This continues to be a situation where at any point results could be spectacularly better but could just as easily drag on much longer. Wave's biggest strength, at least for their employees, is their ability to fund the company through continuous share offers diluting current shareholders. While that is horrible for current owners, it is certainly better than liquidation and the longer they play the higher the chance that real upgrades and growth will take place. But I find some of these sale predictions really naive given past history. But differences of views create a market and one time I hope someone can say "told you so".

wavedreamer

There is every reason to believe that wave would be involved in the testing of secure TPM servers as part of the DODs building of a secure trusted network. The issues we grapple with is when will the outcomes of those tests result in a meaningful revenue award to Wave and how will Wave bridge the time between such award and today when they are spending more money than they are taking in. The gov't. opportunity in its various forms has been there for many years - soon to approach a decade. So I view these events as positive signs that they are still in business but from an investing sense its incredibly easy to be one, two, five years ahead of your time.

wavxwizard

Why is it shocking to the positive side? I'm glad that folks are happy and glad that they are buying shares. What I saw was a need to double revenue while maintaining expenses to break even. To achieve that, we will need to see real increases in upgrades unless there is a new revenue stream. I have expected those upgrades to happen for a fairly long time. While it seems inevitable unless a new solution suddenly appears, the recession clearly will negatively impact product purchases making the government very important. I can see how quickly the government moves so that gives me further concerns.

RWK

I think its pretty obvious that they wanted to release something for the purposes you mentioned. Also although they get the benefit of the higher licensing rate in Q1, they also get the negative benefit of the corporate spending slowdown. Diferentiating between upgrades versus basic licensing is an important metric for the full details if they are willing to divulge it. I have not followed the expense levels for some time but it still feels that revenue and expenses remain diverged.

hnstabe

Snackman could do another poll to see who has lost the most money over the years. Maybe there are some negative millionaires there? The largest positions today are from those who either just started buying relatively recently or who have developed an interesting dollar cost averaging perspective. You might consider your position to be the more rational one.

In any event as I am sure will be pointed out, you could stop buying Starbucks each day and instead buy some shares.

Although I am not extrapolating anything with regard to wave anymore given past successes in that regard, I was pleasantly surprised about the DOD contract. Not only does it provide an obvious opportunity with regard to making the guidleines work to their benefit, it demonstrated that they are still relevant (which was getting easier to wonder about).

Also the impact of the economic slowdown on private and state purchases of almost anything may be extremely adverse, having a digitally focused administration with a goal of looking and thinking forward and building infrastructure could clearly be an important ally and purchaser for Wave. Thus the contract has even more potential significance.

Or is it related to the possibility that they are now receiving cash in that exceeds cash out. The first step is to reach a point where they will not self destruct. It also doesn't take much buying to raise the price. The DOD contract itself raising wave's profile to just about anyone could do it as well. Besides its not as if there are many assets that look safe.

Xpress

My take is that there were interested buyers but they were not moving forward fast enough (maybe cold feet, hesitation in these markets or hoping Wave would need to give it away)and wave decided to shut it down rather than continue to burn scarce cash. presumably it is still in tact to be sold if and when that opportunity emerges again. And if there is an interested party they will realize that wave is willing to mothball it rather than giving it away. Wave ha sno doubt created many of its issues but today's capital markets has certainly tempered enthusiasm for deals; even those as small as Xpress.

tkc

well it always sounds easy and no doubt you could save in some areas. But when you slash you are implying that either everything was completely out of control before (which has not been true for some time) or that you are not allocating necessary resources to sell or engineer (which some might consider critical functions). Wave is not buying $100 scew drivers - at least not since the first major financing took place years ago.

And a discussion about Xpress is a two edged sword.

Dig

I believe you are going beyond facts to make a point that I agree with. Wave's primary issues are their own (or maybe that could be extended to the trusted computing market). However Wave has appeared on lists associated with naked shorting and because of their situation has made it easier for people to adversely impact the stock through naked shorting. That reduction has in turn had an effect on their financing opportunities and impact on the stock price. And could be an isue in the futrue if allowed. So the new rule could be beneficial although it obviously won't cure the real problem.

Dig

I would bet we'll know within the next 4 months which way it will go.

Trust

This is one of a few tangible signs that wave's cash receipts are actually growing over this quarter and/or their expenses are being reduced. I think both could be true to differing extent. As a shareholder, I'm pleased that the potential dilution casued by the current shareprice has been mitigated through the convertible share approach.

A little breathing room has been created. Though we are well beyond the point I thought they could still be operating, I believe the next few months will clarifgy if there still will be a company as we knew it operating in 2009. All messages are that self sustaining revenues should be present by the end of the quarter. Those messages are coupled with increasing market traction. Given the past track record, it is difficult to take that info without a shaker full of salt. Still we'll know much better when we see how financing evolves over the next 3 to 4 months. That will be more transparent and reliable than the scuttlebut.

tkc

I think you are extrapolating and making guesses here. Reg FD (which is full disclosure) is not so rigid as to require companies to announce cash positions. So while Wave may be low on cash and working on a funding solution, they do not need to announce this to everybody. Sure if they were bankrupt and filed, they would mention it but I think you are over reaching on their status and obligations and then adding in fears of law suit to boot.

If they are as low as some suspect, then I think you can expect some news concerning the solution pretty shortly.