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One of those despised lurkers, but enjoy following your board and posts-
You’re one of the handful of honest, level-headed people on the site, and your contributions don’t go unnoticed-
Thanks much. Now back into the shadows...lol-
If it’s 5 waves down on the ES;
Roughly speaking(don’t have actual numbers on hand, apologies) went from 3010 to 2776, then 2776 to 2890...
So if this is wave 3, it’ll be a big one, huh?
And all that first of the month inflow money is all ready underwater...
Wow-
Do you think that it was an ABC corrective wave that just finished earlier in the day on the ES, or a wave 5?
I need to brush up on basic EW rules, but can an ABC overshoot the peak of the preceding wave?
Cannot remember where I was reading but saw several times 3025 ES was a key level since it was the 261.8% Fib extension from the ‘09 low...
SPY....
Is not looking good...
They may take this past 295 and wipe out all the call holders from the 1st of
The month-
30 year auction released at 1 pm was abysmal... caught details of it on forexlive and zerohedge (ZH is okay with some things like that, just got to remember the source with whatever article your reading...lol)-
10 year is spiking in an uncomfortable manner-
Been a long time since we’ve seen a low volume (so far) sell-off like this-
True it’s way too early, but you always did mention the end of the up-thrust would be an event over the weekend to catch people on the wrong foot-
Not to mention the past few weeks of slow grind up involved the largest retail inflows on a long while.,.
Prescient as always-
Would this be an ABC up after a 5 wave down?
Kinda looks like it on the SPY hourly...
One helluva weekly candle for SPY there...
The 10 year yield is a big deal-
Still pretty sure there is a historic short position against it, or at least a massive one...
If forced to cover, could get nasty very quickly-
Did they change it again?
News was that April meeting got pushed back till the end of June-
That was some serious (relative to late) volume-
Thoughts on that end of day dump?
Beginning of wave 4, or the end of an ABC up with Monday looking precarious?
Interesting that the area it reversed was basically the price at the start of the year-
The rest of this month could be very interesting for sure-
Appreciate all your posts and insights. They’re one of the highlights of this site-
This is looking bad-
Almost 20 point swing in SPY since Monday-
News follows the charts, not vice versa-
Liquidation break on tariff news?
The VIX down over 5% is odd...
Makes overnight SPY/SPXW option plays appealing with that lack of premium-
Expecting an ABC down after the 5th completes today, if it hasn’t all ready?
My puts thank you, Mr Cohen...lol-
Which is good for the couple calls I held overnight that I didn’t sell yesterday...lol-
All the information/videos you’ve posted about value trading/simple Elliot Wave and the discussion of them has been incredibly constructive. That and also using NERS (CCI with moving averages) when making decisions has helped stopped me from making many mistakes, though they still happen for sure-
Noticed that as well-
Thinking it might open up a slight nudge but agree with you on it’s trajectory. Seems like they often gap into 3s and Cs, but with Fed day, 1st of the month, as well as QT tomorrow...should be interesting, figure I’ll just be watching until the Fed announcement-
In the ABC, generally does the C equal the A?
Appreciate your observations very much, on whatever board they are found-
Probably why call options were so cheap today-
Curious as to your opinion on whether this is a 5th up or a B up in an ABC down. Looks tricky still...
Which such a vicious bounce, and looking at the hourly SPY, is this some kind of wave 3 happening today?
Maybe a bad GDP print on Friday morning...?
Look at the potential weekly candle on the SPY...
Coming from the source, that comment is hilarious-
Look at the 10 year-
Think the rise in Libor rates is a bigger risk then any trade war-
TNX is starting to creep higher while the market stalls/dips lower-
Where they have been marching together as of late, if that correlation flips, it could get interesting-
Appreciate it immensely-
Post worthy of being sticky’d, that’s for sure-
Do have a question. I’d like to recreate the 5 minute chart you posted above your Phase chart, but I’m awful at using Stockcharts outside of basic overlays. Is there a link or template to recreate the chart so I can dig into it more as well as learn more advanced features of stockcharts? Thanks in advance, I’ll head back to lurking like I’ve been for awhile now...lol-
Brilliant as always-
Thanks for sharing your insights as often as you do-
And thanks for posting those videos from the rest of us to watch as well-
Could what has happened been an ABC up from the 200 sma on the SPX coming to a conclusion?
Two daily closes under the 50 sma doesn’t look so hot...
Outrageous 15 min candle on the ES... wow-
Just curious-
When was the last time you had such movement on the market thermometer like this last week? That’s the second change this week, correct?
Except for the world of cryptocurrencys...lol-
Am curious about the financial carnage happening and really to whom and the ramifications of it a couple months from now-
Talked a friend out of putting a substantial amount of money into bitcoin when it was around 17k by simply showing her the chart of bitcoin and the chart of an average pink-sheet penny stock pump/dump, and the eerie similarity they had-
Hopefully something with technology/application does come from this wash out but when Kodak tries having an ICO...time to be careful...lol-
Best thing about running a board like this how you do, simply paying attention to what's being said is help enough. I and everyone else that lurks appreciate greatly-
And seems like it did fail at 2650. Did pick up a couple SPX put options (2630) for tomorrow. Not a large position by any means, but those things can move quick and violently-
But down moves are quick, and the value low somewhere around 2600 should be a magnet you think?
Happy to hear the progress you've been making!