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Hi Rrufff,
I appreciate your reasoned comments as well.
For myself and any anyone else investing in UCPJ, clearly the most significant and recent unknown is the nature, motivation, and consequences of the upcoming reverse split.
The overwhelming reason I think that the reverse split is much more likely to be favorable for us in the future, rather than a source of dilution is the identity of the shareholder base: MORE THAN 2/3 of the current OS is owned my management, and indeed most of that by our CEO, Carmichael.
So while I might be concerned about the potential for massive dilution with other companies, I don't think that unwarranted dilution will be likely with UCPJ, as the people management would most harm by such actions is THEMSELVES, and not some anonymous retail shareholder base. i.e. there are a few individual investors/traders out here, but management makes up MORE THAN 2/3 of the current ownsership- why would they dilute themselves un-necessarily?
Also influencing my reasoning toward the AMEX move is the size of the reverse split. If the goal were merely to dilute, it could be accomplished much more subtly with a smaller reverse split ratio. Imo, there is a reason for why Carmichael has chosen such a large split ratio- in my feeble mind, a move to a major exchange is the most likely scenario. Indeed, if Carmichael had wanted dilution, he would not have gotten rid of Cornell Capital over a year ago, a dis-association which significantly increased my confidence in UCPJ.
Take care, and happy investing/trading to all!
P.S.
I'll look into 'bones' on RB later in the day, but am off to other things now ...
Hi Rufff,
I appreciate your commenting on the 10Q released yesterday. Everyone else has remained silent so far.
However, I disagree with your perspective on the status of UCPJ:
1) UCPJ reported approximately in line with my expectations, as the $400K revenue boost in Q2 of 2006 was known to be NOT a recurring revenue source- it was a very large custom tankfill project which we'll be fortunate to get from time to time, but one that we as investors certainly can not plan for.
So with the exception of that one $400K project from 2006, we reported comparable revenues to last year. By the way, this phenomenon will likely repeat it self in Q3, as 1/2 the order was booked in Q2 of 2006, and the other 1/2 in Q3 of 2006.
2) The warrants at 0.007 is old news from 2005 that we have known for some time. Have you read through the last few 10q's and 10-k's (say from 5/15 and 4/2). Identical language is used in those reports as well, as this is an obligation that needs to be met from our finanical struggles a few years ago, and corresponding need for consultancy.
3) The key positive that I see is that we are slowly but surely establishing ourselves as a company with NET POSITIVE INCOME. Some more growth would have been nice, but at least a solid business foundation is being built IMO.
4) I suspect that we're heading to AMEX at some point hopefully soon.
Take care, and happy investing/trading to all!
Hi stockdoc (and rob75),
In Section 6 about the Conversion in Exhibit A, Exhibit 10.2 of the 8-k, it seems to suggest that MOBL is entitled to at least a 10% stake IF MOBL HAS NOT RECEIVED $ 8 MM by the end of September. i.e. we are guaranteed 10% if something goes wrong, and Gobility doesn't raise $8 MM as we all expect them to.
Makes me think that our stake will be less than 10% (OR AT LEAST NOT MORE THAN 10%), if everything goes as planned, and Gobility raises the $ 8 MM ...
"
6. CONVERSION.
6.1. Optional Conversion. This Convertible Debenture may be converted, in whole or in part at the option of the Holder at any time. The number of shares of Common Stock to be issued pursuant to such conversion shall be calculated by taking (a) the dollar amount of principal and accrued interest under this Convertible Debenture to be converted divided by (b) the Conversion Price, provided, however, that Holder shall receive shares of Common Stock equal to not less than 10% of the capital stock outstanding on a fully diluted basis if the Company has not received at least $8,000,000 of cash investment by September 30, 2007.
"
link:
http://knobias.10kwizard.com/filing.php?repo=tenk&ipage=5042737&doc=1&total=&back=2&....
Hi stockdoc,
Thank you for responding to what I think is a significant point in assessing the Gobility deal. As I have stated many times, most recently on RB, this % is important to know, as I find the 8-k does not address this explicitly, and some off-handed allusions suggest that MOBL's stake in Gobility may be at best 10%. Moreover, in addition to the % stake in question, some guidance to help us evaluate the potential of what the combined Kite and Gobility entities can transform into would be of immense help- I understand that Gobility being privately held makes it harder to disseminate some of what I seek, but Jay has offered ZERO guidance on this, a man who in the past has not had any qualms in claiming a 'mole hill' will turn into a $1 BILLION 'mountain'!
One of my biggest concerns about the Gobility deal is that we have gone from 100% ownership of Kite, to about 10% ownership of Kite. a significant dilution. While Gobility (or anyone else) raising CASH for buildouts is essential, I would have expected us to lose up to 50% of our ownership stake (for $20 - $30 MM in cash), but NOT 90%!
Despite this concern, I do NOT plan to sell my MOBL shares right now, because even with such 'apparent' dilution, I find the stock to be way UNDERVALUED!
Links to my earlier posts raising these concerns:
http://ragingbull.quote.com/mboard/boards.cgi?board=MOBL&read=147422
http://ragingbull.quote.com/mboard/boards.cgi?board=MOBL&read=147423
http://ragingbull.quote.com/mboard/boards.cgi?board=MOBL&read=147397
Hi Invitro,
The reason that 'someone' is buying MOBL is that things are pretty bad at MOBL, but the market, IN MY OPINION, has inefficiently discounted MOBL's pps too much to the down side at the moment (I imagine another wave of capitulation is occurring from some shell-shocked longs, while other longs are at least paring their positions)
While there are clearly many things wrong with MOBL, IMO it should at least be trading at (or above) 0.025 or so ... Others of like mind are buying these 'undervalued' shares for either speculation or a short-term trade.
To each their own, but the idea of buying MOBL based on outlandish conspiracy theories posted on anonymous internet boards that are backed by ZERO evidence, is IMO an unfortunate (AND REALLY DANGEROUS) way to try to compensate for the void of appropriate info flowing out from MOBL management at this critical juncture.
IMO what we have right now is an inexplicable 8-k filed by an seemingly, incompetent management team that also seems to be heavily invested in the future prosperity of MOBL. Conclusion: we're in the dark as to how this will play out: only time will tell!
Z, I assume you're being sarcastic ...
MM is more clueless than the message baords when it comes to DD on MOBL, so evidently he actually gets paid hamdsomely to be wrong about basic DD at times!
MOBL has sold its Muni wifi (as well as the rest of Kite) to Gobility, but you wouldn't know that from reading MM.
Hi Large funds,
Actually while I was shocked to see confidence in JW written as a reason to buy MOBL in that MM update, I lost ALL respect for him a couple of paragraphs earlier, when he stated that only Kite Broadband has been sold, and that Muni-wifi is still with MOBL.
Admittedly MOBL potentially still has some share of Kite upside (through its investment in Gobility), but it's clear from the phrasing that that's not what he meant!
Hi Crashman,
We would be lucky to get $5 MM for Davel (exception would be IF (THAT'S A BIG IF) we get some dial-around compensation, but you know what they say about counting chicks before they're hatched ...)
and it's not clear whether we can get anything for ProGames at this point, as it is not much more than an idea.
Finally, the cash coming from USA Telephone is closer to $4 MM, but close enough.
For now, I think cash + equity value is closer to 0.024 - 0.025 range - actually i made this calculation yesterday morning.
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=21127964
i.e. there definitely is room for complex things to occur/unwind in the future, but this is our baseline for now ...
take care, and happy investing/trading to all!
Here is why I am holding on tight to my MOBL shares.
I still find it unfathomable the Kite Networks in its entirety has been sold for a measly $2 MM, with a worst case scenario of no further upside from Kite.
Accounting from a simpleton like myself:
$30 MM expected from USA Telecom - $18 MM to Cornell = $12 MM
$ 2 MM from this deal.
$ 5 MM from Davel.
Assume ProGames is worth $ 0.
--------------------------------
Our expected CASH BALANCE, even if we closed up shop completely, would be $19 MM.
$19 MM / 775 million shares = 2.45 cents per share.
Maybe I'm off slightly on some numbers, as this is a quick-and-dirty calculation, but not by much ...
As I see it, this stock is now trading WELL BELOW CASH VALUE.
Clearly I'm missing something HUGE, because to me,
the logic behind the last two days is beyond mystifying ...
Take care, and happy investing/trading to all!
If what you say were accurate, I would interpret that as good news, but until I get official confirmation one way or the other, I consider myself 'in the dark'.
Since I am in the dark, I think it might be prudent to wait patiently for further info. Not a good feeling I must admit, but I need to let logic, and not emotion, rule my day (esp. today) ...
Take care, and happy investing/trading to all!
We agree only in part, nibbler.
1) I agree with you, and repeat that Kite in its entirety should be valued north of $25,000,000 in any near-term scenario, and so a $2,000,000 price tag for it would be a travesty.
That leads me to
2) That we're missing something, because selling all of Kite for only $2,000,000 would be far below what even Jay can do, and I can not fathom Jay, Jerry Sullivan and the BOD going along with such an obvious injustice to MOBL. Keep in mind that Jay and Jerry have huge vested interests in MOBL as well. They may make mistakes, but no one can sanely make THAT HUGE a mistake so as to sell all your future dreams for a pittance!
To me, there is only one plausible explanation left, which is that there is something that we're missing and mis-interpreting.
I hope Jay follows last week's precedent of releasing a 'depressing' SEC filing after market close, only to deliver the positive follow through during pre-market during the next business day ...
I speak only for my own portfolio, but I intend to hold all my MOBL shares until I get a clarification that indicates to me that I should do otherwise.
Tonight's SEC filing is literally 'incomprehensible' to me, and I choose not to act on things that I don't understand well. At these and lower share prices, MOBL is a HOLD for me unless I am given concrete information to the contrary...
Take care, and happy investing/trading to all!
Good point, SeriousMoney,
your excerpt goes along the line of mrpego's previous remark about raising $3 MM by 8/15. All of this might make sense to me as part of some merger/reverse merger/spin off, EXCEPT for the fact that the nominal price of $2 MM for the sale just doesn't make sense ...
Mrpego,
I considered that, but find the $2,000,000 price tag to be TOO LOW BY A FACTOR OF MINIMUM OF 10 X.
I have no problem with Kite being sold, esp. as we struggle to find cash to feed it and keep it above water, but how could one possibly associate $2,000,000 to that sale.
I agree with you that we're missing something- that was my point in the first place- but what ???
Hi Mrpego,
I would love to be wrong on this, but the following is excerpted from the beginning of Exhibit 10.1: I am not sure how else to interpret that, other than the sale of Kite Broadband, Kite Networks, and NeoReach in its entirety ...
http://knobias.10kwizard.com/filing.php?repo=tenk&ipage=5042737&doc=1&total=&back=2&...
"
PURCHASE AGREEMENT
THIS PURCHASE AGREEMENT (the “Agreement”), is made and entered into as of the 8th day of July, 2007, by and among Gobility, Inc., a Texas corporation (“Buyer”), and Mobilepro Corp, a Delaware corporation (“Seller”).
RECITALS
Seller owns all of the issued and outstanding membership interests of Kite Broadband, LLC, a Mississippi limited liability company (“Kite Broadband”), and all of the issued and outstanding shares of Neoreach, Inc., a Delaware corporation (“Neoreach”). Neoreach owns all of the issued and outstanding shares of Kite Networks, Inc., a Delaware corporation (“Kite Networks,” and together with Neoreach and Kite Broadband, the “Target Companies”).
Seller desires to sell to Buyer and Buyer desires to purchase all outstanding membership interests in Kite Broadband and all outstanding capital stock in Neoreach and Kite Networks.
NOW, THEREFORE, in consideration of the recited facts and the mutual covenants of the parties hereinafter set forth, it is agreed:
Thank you, Slim, for posting links to the actual 8-k filings.
I must confess that after reading through the legalese, I clearly do not comprehend it, so I guess I will need to wait for further clarification.
On its surface I have initially read the document to understand that all of Kite Broadband, Kite Networks and Neoreach has been sold. To a simpleton like myself that would suggest that we have lost the baby with the bath water, and that all of our Muni Wifi have been given away at BELOW LIQUIDATION prices. Personally I saw Kite fetching somewhere from $25 - $50 Million in the near-term, depending on how desperate we were to sell it ...
Since that doesn't make any sense at all, my only recourse is to wait for further clarification from the Company or elsewhere, because frankly I DO NOT BELIEVE THE INTERPRETATION I HAVE SET FORTH ABOVE: it would be well beyond a breach of fiduciary duty on Jay's (and the BOD's) part to agree to such a thing.
Again, the only plausible explanation is that I have mis-read and/or mis-interpreted, so I wait patiently for clarification ...
dynsunil/stats_mocker
Hi Rob75,
Welcome to this message board. In my opinion this and other boards can be used as a SUPPLEMENT to our own dd. I have been investing for 5 years, and I have found that 99% of what's posted on the internet is useless, and often mis-leading and deceitful, perpetrated by posters for their own self-serving agendas.
But there's actually good news in my statement, because it means that 1% of what's floating in the ether can actually be useful to us, once we learn to discern...
Using our good judgment and due diligence, it is not difficult to see that there are at least a few others on these boards that are worth corresponding with. And for the sake of such correspondence, I don't mind filtering through the riff-raff postings to get to the ones I find useful. Once I have a good enough feel about a poster, I can also put a person on 'ignore' which speeds up the process.
Based on my experience among the MOBL message boards, let me recommend at least a few posters that I have found worthwhile to read/write to. To be clear there are others as well- I am offering only a starting point.
On ragingbull.com, I take time to read postings from the following posters, as well as others.
mainlander, mister_b, jimmymack, lihkauai, stager000
Again, to clarify, I may not agree with all that they write, but I would be willing to state publicly that I have found them to be sincere and well-reasoned (fact-based or evidence-based) in their posts, and therefore worth my reading.
Take care, and happy investing/trading to all!
Hi Ruggedpirate,
Please address the 2 questions toward the end of the following post, as I now realize that I did not identify you specifically in the header of my previous post, even though it was intended for you: thanks in advance!
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=21085953
In the last couple of messages you have again stated "I told you so", but I can not seem to find the "so" that you are referring to.
For what it's worth, I speculate the following for MOBL.
1) Wireline business will be sold to USA Telephone for $30,000,000 by November.
2) Davel may be sold within same timeframe for approx $5,000,000.
3) Private Placement around $25,000,000 for Kite within same timeframe.
I might be wrong about any or all of this, but at least we have some specifics to discuss ...
i.e. it probably isn't helpful for others to know that I plan to accumulate MOBL at these and better prices (should they be found) in the coming weeks/months, but why I am buying might be interesting to a fellow board member. What happens in my personal portfolio will affect only me and my family, but mutual reasons (if shared and discussed) might be valuable to others if done in a sincere and well-reasoned manner based on evidence or other verifiable means.
I find it valuable to hear another's reasoned opinion based on eviodence or logic, even if I may not share their viewpoint.
However your recent posts seem to be lacking in specifics, or perhaps I am not understanding what you are trying to say.
If you would be so kind, please clarify the following two points.
In the post I am responding to, you say "I have been telling you 'this' all along"
1) Please specify what "this" is?
Which MOBL business(es) does it concern (e.g. Kite, Davel, Progames, wireline biz), and what specifically do you speculate will happen to that MOBL business in question (sold, merged with another company, financing, etc.)
2) You have used the term 'very soon' in many of your recent posts. I assume you are not a protege of Jay Wright and his infamous 'very soon' statements, so please state a calender date or timeline for your proposed events.
Thanks!
---------------------
For example, the following is reasoned speculation on my part: I speculate that MOBL will complete the sale of its wireline biz to USA Telephone by November of 2007 for proceeds of $30,000,000. I base it on the 8-k put forth by MOBL this morning.
I have told you which MOBL business(es) my speculation concerns, what will happen to it, provided a timeline for it, and told you the basis for my speculation.
We do not all need to agree, but it would be helpful to see reasoning and evidence/factual basis in our communications!
Take care, and happy investing/trading to all!
Let me re-emphasize:
the speculation in my previous post is hypothetical: in reality, I think that Cornell wants to get repaid in full as quickly as possible, so that they can deploy their capital elsewhere.
Hi Lagoncho,
Cornell's permission is needed for a very simple reason: they have leins on substantially all of MOBL's tangible assets as collateral against the $18,000,000 that MOBL currently owes Cornell. Those leins need to be released in order for USA Telephone to take possession of the assets in the sale.
As far as monthly payments to Cornell (rather than an immediate full re-payment), I don't think that is very likely given the history during the past two years.
On the other hand, I would not be opposed to it so long as ALL FUTURE PAYMENTS ARE IN CASH. Any further payments in shares to Cornell really would be disastrous, as we're way to ver-diluted already due to mis-management of debt by the current management.
If Cornell were willing to wait on getting fully re-paid, well - frankly we could use the cash to progress further on Kite- it's a cash-hungry enterprise to be sure ...
Take care, and happy investing/trading to all!
Fair enough. Thank you for clarifying!
dynsunil/stats_mocker
Hi mike306oh,
I don't understand why you (and a couple of other posters)are stating today that Cornell is here to stay.
As of the PR one week ago (7/2//07) announcing the sale to USA Telecom, I understood that Cornell should be out of MOBL's hairs in 90 to 120 days (i.e. when AFN and Closecall close- the so-called 'second closing'). Since then I have also seen the timeline referred to as 'by November', but I view that as a conservative stipulation of the same timeline.
Perhaps I am missing something, but for some reason a few are stating today that 'Cornell is here to stay', presumably for longer than the October/November timeline. If you would be kind enough, please elaborate as to why you think Cornell's involvement with us has now been extended. Thanks!
Take care, and happy investing/trading to all!
dynsunil/ stats_mocker
Hi all,
Yes Q2 of fiscal 2008 runs from 7/1/2007 through 9/30/2007. Indeed the second quarter will begin tomorrow, and I'll be watching with anticipation on whether and how the events projected in the 10K will play out.
And fwiw I also intend to 'hold' and see how things play out in the next (up to) 90 days. Getting out at current prices doesn't make sense to me after having played it this far- in for a dime, in for a dozen ...
Btw hopefully MOBL will not file another registration statement to issue more shares without getting debt-free first, as I don't think the market will have any kind of appetite for additional shares. To clarify, any additional shares will have to be done through an SB 2 form (more complex and protracted than a S-3), as evidently MOBL no longer qualifies to apply through a simple S-3. With Jay's track record in filing successful SB 2 forms, a filing is not likely to be approved any time soon imo.
The CEO at that point might use an SB-2 if/when the wireline business sale goes through, which might then facilitate additional financing going forward on better terms in order to fund Kite ...
The operative word for me for the next (up to) 90 days is 'patience' for ONE FINAL TIME. Either the proposed sale of the wireline business will occur at 'reasonable' prices for us, or they won't. I have a funny feeling that we will not have to wait until Sep. 30th to see how this plays out- I suspect this time around Jay has left himself some extra time to play with, unlike every other time so far. If that event ('wireline' biz sale) occurs/or fails to occur, I will have a very important decision to make concerning my portfolio ...
Take care, and happy investing/trading to all!