CIO, SignalPoint Asset Management, 2008 to 2024, Retired
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Breaking News, UPI - AP
April 1, 2024
It has been learned that Apple and Samsung have been caught in collusion to boost Smart Phone sales nationwide.
With shrinking national sales of phones both companies combined their sales and marketing efforts to not only sell
more units, but to enhance their stock profitability.
Who would have thought Apple and Samsung would be so devious and ambitious as to create the situation that will
occur on April 8, 2024 at around 2PM Central Time. In a stunning work of technology they have arranged for the
Moon to temporarily block out all sunlight across a huge swath of the North American continent. Through shameless
promotion of the "Solar Eclipse" they've positioned themselves for optimum results.
All Smart Phone users who attempt to directly photograph the Event will most likely "fry" their built-in cameras. When
they realize their Smart Phones aren't as smart as before the Eclipse, they'll rush out to buy a new and fully functional
replacement.
Wall Street analysts expect shares of Apple's and Samsung's common stock to surge strongly about 5 minutes after
the 2PM Central Time event.
What an amazing marketing idea! How did they manage to arrange for the Solar Eclipse, anyway?
What will they try next?
Apple's stock should soar later today or tomorrow when everyone who has an I-Phone realizes they've fried their camera trying to take pics of the Solar Eclipse!!
OAG
Will MESA's stock ever get airborne again? Maybe a quarterly surprise will get it Wheels Up..............
OAG
Hi MD,
CRSP is now down around 1/3 from its February high. The price is where I usually start to accumulate more shares.
Best wishes,
OAG
Hi JDerb, Re: This week's v-Wave showing shorter term stress..................................
Seeing the 18 Month v-Wave moving well above the 3-5 Year assessment gives me a sense that the markets are ready for some shorter term consolidation.
Looking at how much better its estimate of the market's potential was back in 2022 and how far the indexes actually moved after that assessment should offer investors and AIMers alike some need for reflection. Market psychology doesn't favor traditional investors and traders who've now been conditioned by a long upward trend. AIMers should be checking to see if they've been following AIM's directions in boosting cash reserves at every opportunity.
I'd guess a year from now we'll be able to judge whether the current cautious outlook for the 18 Month forecast was again considered a 'good call.'
Best wishes,
OAG Tom
Hi Toof, Re: EFA volatility and AIMing....................
That's part of the reason I chose to divide up the ex US stock markets by different "styles" of ETFs.
Stock Funds
PIZ
EFG
SCHC
DGS
DOL
DIM
DLS
DEM
VNQI
Cash and Equivalents
MMF
SNVXX
The first three stock funds are mainly growth oriented. Overall it's given a good balance and reasonable return for the ex US markets. Allocations currently range from PIZ at 12.2% down to VNQI at 7%. Cash and equals add up to around 18% currently.
Best wishes,
OAG Tom
Hi Jon, We're seeing the ST v-Wave showing stress while the longer term remains steady but well above Median.
I've been doing some work with the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) "Allocations" database recently. It dates to around late 1987 and shows stock, bond and cash allocations monthly. Thinking back to Norman Fosback's work from years ago on cash allocations at Mutual Funds, I decided to see if there was a similar trend with individuals. Fosback had determined that cash allocations in mutual funds were the highest right at or near when the stock markets bottomed (most cautious) and were lowest at or near market tops (most aggressive). This is pretty much the mirror image of what AIM does so could be considered a very contrary market risk measure.
My preliminary study of AAII's allocations over the decades looks to follow a similar pattern. When individual investors are most optimistic they are lowest in cash allocation. This looks to occur near market tops. When the Big Bad Bear comes out to play, that's when the individual investor moves the cash allocation to the high end of its range. Again this could then be viewed as a contrary indicator - high cash = bullish signal, low cash = bearish signal. Here's a quick look at how this appears when looking at major bearish periods:
I do note that since around 2010 AAII's cash hoard has been smaller and less jumpy than in previous times. This might be because of a newer group of AAII members or a change in how quickly allocations can be changed since ETFs have become very popular. There could be other reasons, too.
In general, it seems to be that individual investors react badly during times of crisis by going heavily to Cash (usually too late). It also seems that they become complacent with their winnings during strong bullish periods and carry less "cash insurance." Mr. Lichello would just smile and shake his head! Of note is that the long average Cash Allocation is 22% and it's currently showing 16.8%, so on the LOW side. This would give us some contrary reason to be cautious, similar to our v-Wave's 18 Month current view.
Comments and Questions welcome!
OAG Tom
I thought it might be interesting to "benchmark" my International ETF portfolio against the MSCI EAFE ETF (iShares).
While my 9 ETF portfolio contains REITs and two Emerging Markets components that are not part of EFA, it still gives a pretty good representation of the ExUS market.
EFA recently did reach past its previous high from late in 2021 where my portfolio is now just about equal to its high water mark. Considering AIM's cash, the three components that EFA doesn't include to any degree and the relatively low price range of my portfolio and we see AIM's done a pretty good job of staying with EFA on the upside while limiting the downside (even with Mr. Putin's activity).
I don't know how AIM would have done with EFA all by itself, but my portfolio's three growth and three value components passed the baton back and forth a bit while EFA didn't have that luxury. Over all, it's worked out fine.
Best wishes,
OAG Tom
Q1 Finals for Tom's International Equity Warehouse:
IRA (no longer a contributing IRA since I retired)
10 Common Stock Composite (each stock a separate AIM engine)
International "Style" type ETF composite portfolio
(Large, Mid and Small Cap ETFs in both Growth and Value plus Intl REITs and Small and Large Emerging Markets Dividend ETFs)
U.S. Business Sector ETF Composite
(built primarily from equal weight ETFs)
Overall these accounts are doing well and equaled or broke into new all time highs in March. Cash is starting to rebuild to healthier levels.
Happy Long Weekend,
OAG Tom
EPD tipping the scales at nearer $30/share. Value Line offers an 18 month "Appreciation Potential" of $23 to $32. It's 3-5 Year estimated potential is $45 to $70! Even the lower end of that would make me smile.
From Value Line:
Enterprise’s finances ought to able to manage its large construction program. The partnership reduced spending in 2021 and 2022, but it returned to more normal levels in 2023. The U.S. has become the world’s biggest exporter of LNG and EPD should benefit from this.
MLP investors may want to take a closer look at these neutrally ranked units. The current yield of around 8% is well above the Value Line median and in line with other midstream entities. Moreover, potential returns out to 2027-2029 are attractive. In addition, the partnership size and presence in all the major shale plays and end markets makes it less vulnerable to a specific problem in any sector or territory.
James A. Flood February 23, 2024
This from Mr. Buffett's annual newsletter to shareholders:
In Warren Buffett’s most recent annual shareholder letter, he wrote,
“Though the stock market is massively larger than it was in our early years, today’s active participants are neither more emotionally stable nor better taught than when I was in school. For whatever reasons, markets now exhibit far more casino-like behavior than they did when I was young.”
Nicely stated, Mr. Buffett!
Best wishes,
OAG Tom
If Earnings don't match
upward growth of Stock Prices
this Rally won't last...........
Derived from Elaine Garzarelli's work combining a broad P/E with short term interest rates, the Relative Valuation Index looks at the risk involved in Stocks vs the "risk free" rate of short treasuries. Sadly, right now this 2024 rally looks like it's not backed by either a drop in interest rates or growth in earnings.
Hi Pete, Re: Spreading it around...............
I own EMLP as a catch-all in this space, too. It's in a different portfolio. I trim it by 5% as prices climb and add 6% on the dips. Roughly there's a 20% LIFO turn on the round trips. They don't happen very often, however!
Thanks for the thoughts. Barclays upper target is about where I'll let the next 10% of shares go.
Best wishes,
OAG Tom
A longer look at RIG........................
https://schrts.co/KssPeddX
A nice upturn in Accumulation..............
OAG Tom
JETS shows good accumulation since last year's low point.
https://schrts.co/eBAAYSNz
Best wishes,
OAG
Hi Steve, Re: Cap vs Equal Weight Sector ETFs.............
For me it was to get greater exposure on smaller cap companies while still using primarily Sector ETFs. I know over time there will be sector rotation with either Cap or Equal Weight sectors - that's good news for AIM. I also know there are times of exuberance that will be mostly seen in the very large cap stocks. Small caps generally don't get pumped like the mega cap stocks. I have a secret ingredient in my Sector ETF portfolio, XLG. It's "Top 50 Stocks" of the S&P 500 in capitalization. It behaves like the S&P 500 to a degree since the other 450 stocks don't have the 'push' that those 50 do.
https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.php?XLG,SPY&n=1259&O=011000
So, it's a favorite toy in the ETF toy chest. It tends to shine in FOMO markets even thought it crosses over between sectors. One could call it a modern "Nifty 50" I guess. Overall, the portfolio has better diversification with the mix I currently own. It's been a while since my account started using the equal weight sector funds. There's pretty fat cap gains in most of the positions which makes me hesitant to make a change at this point. The tactic of using Sectors and AIM has proved to be successful. The further tactic of using equal weight sectors has given me a portfolio of better diversification, I believe. The Domestic Division of Tom's International Equity Warehouse (T.I.E.W.) has been a solid performer.
In the mean time, TIEW's International Division is doing well compared to typical EAFE type funds. It's based in "style" ETFs (Large, mid and small caps, in both Value and Growth). Years ago there were exUS sector ETFs but they vanished. So, I had to convert the International Division over to its current form. In general it's worked well. Here's the 12 month performances with the far right being the EAFE ETF for comparison:
https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.php?PIZ,EFG,SCHC,DGS,DOL,DIM,DLS,DEM,VNQI,EFA&n=252&O=111000
.............and how the composite AIM'd accounts have looked through the end of last month:
Again, I've held this portfolio's structure relatively constant for a long time. It's underperformed the U.S. ETF sector portfolio, but is doing okay. It doesn't represent as many $$$ as does the U.S. portfolio.
Have a great weekend,
OAG Tom
For fun, I did a comparison of the Cap Weighted Sector ETFs with their Equal Weight brothers. If you stretch the X-Axis to 252 days you'll have a full year's view:
Cap Weighted
https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.php?XLY,XLC,XLK,XLI,XLB,XLE,XLP,XLV,XLU,XLF,XLRE&n=252&O=111000
Equal Weighted
https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.php?RSPC,RSPD,RSPS,RSPG,RSPF,RSPH,RSPN,RSPM,RSPR,RSPT,RSPU&n=252&O=111000
There are similarities and differences. Some Equal Weight beat their Cap Weight brothers and visa versa.
Here's the composite of how mine have done with AIM's management:
(Note: I AIM each of the Equal Weight sectors in my U.S. Sector ETF portfolio)
Have a great weekend,
OAG Tom
Thanks Steve, Re: 4 Year Compound Inflation chart................
That's a very cool history. Thanks for sharing it.
Best wishes,
OAG Tom
While attempting to log into iHub from my phone, I found someone seems to have hijacked one of my email addresses. How can I eliminate that fake membership?
The "Alias" attached to my email is "KingMagician64" and this isn't my account.
Any suggestions as to how to rid i-Hub of this email yijacker?
Best wishes,
Tom Veale
aka: OldAimGuy
My motto has been "Buy from the Scared, Sell to the Greedy" so my STKL is closer to a selling point than a buy right now.
Thanks for the article,
OAG
He stopped by for some sushi!!!
It's a white pine at the lakefront of our cottage.
Ice went out last week so Big Bird is back.
OAG
Purchasing Power.
Does it decline faster than
Our Trust in the FED?
The 13 Week Treasury Rate has stabilized at around 5.3% yield. In the mean time, CPI Inflation has corrected from the late 2022 high. But the rate at which it is correcting has slowed. Stuck near 4%/Yr, it is a cancer for Citizens living on Fixed Income. It's also far above the Federal Reserve's stated long term inflation target.
The FED doesn't feel Inflation's pain the way Citizens do. Nor do Senators or Congressmen. Where's the accountability?
Estate Plan Advice
Listen to Words of Wisdom
J.J. Cale, Claption
Hi EU,
Here's Value Line's entire list of of Entertainment companies in that sector. I found that the Hotel/Gaming sector is right adjacent to the Entertainment sector, so some of those noted were from one and others from the H/G sector. So, I guess we're both right! Anyway, it's always been "happy hunting" in the downtrodden sectors when the bad boy list is loaded from that sector. Generally I look for the healthiest stock in the downtrodden sector. It may not be down as much as the worst performer in that sector, but it usually has better fundamentals and recovers more quickly when the selling/distribution of that sector ends.
Best wishes,
OAG Tom
Value Line report for Disney (Walt) (DIS) Profile report for Disney (Walt) (DIS) Entertainment 1
AMC Networks AMCX Value Line report for AMC Networks (AMCX) Profile report for AMC Networks (AMCX) Entertainment 3
fuboTV Inc. FUBO Value Line report for fuboTV Inc. (FUBO) Profile report for fuboTV Inc. (FUBO) Entertainment N/A
Endeavor Group EDR Value Line report for Endeavor Group (EDR) Profile report for Endeavor Group (EDR) Entertainment N/A
Fox Corp. 'A' FOXA Value Line report for Fox Corp. 'A' (FOXA) Profile report for Fox Corp. 'A' (FOXA) Entertainment 2
Gray Television GTN Value Line report for Gray Television (GTN) Profile report for Gray Television (GTN) Entertainment 2
iHeartMedia, Inc. IHRT Value Line report for iHeartMedia, Inc. (IHRT) Profile report for iHeartMedia, Inc. (IHRT) Entertainment N/A
Madison Sq. Sports MSGS Value Line report for Madison Sq. Sports (MSGS) Profile report for Madison Sq. Sports (MSGS) Entertainment 4
Lions Gate 'A' LGFA Value Line report for Lions Gate 'A' (LGFA) Profile report for Lions Gate 'A' (LGFA) Entertainment N/A
Live Nation Entertain. LYV Value Line report for Live Nation Entertain. (LYV) Profile report for Live Nation Entertain. (LYV) Entertainment 4
Netflix, Inc. NFLX Value Line report for Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) Profile report for Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) Entertainment 3
Scripps (E.W.) 'A' SSP Value Line report for Scripps (E.W.) 'A' (SSP) Profile report for Scripps (E.W.) 'A' (SSP) Entertainment 5
Sinclair, Inc. SBGI Value Line report for Sinclair, Inc. (SBGI) Profile report for Sinclair, Inc. (SBGI) Entertainment 3
Sirius XM Holdings SIRI Value Line report for Sirius XM Holdings (SIRI) Profile report for Sirius XM Holdings (SIRI) Entertainment N/A
Nexstar Media Group NXST Value Line report for Nexstar Media Group (NXST) Profile report for Nexstar Media Group (NXST) Entertainment 3
Roku, Inc. ROKU Value Line report for Roku, Inc. (ROKU) Profile report for Roku, Inc. (ROKU) Entertainment 5
Spotify Tech. S.A. SPOT Value Line report for Spotify Tech. S.A. (SPOT) Profile report for Spotify Tech. S.A. (SPOT) Entertainment 4
Warner Bros. Discovery WBD Value Line report for Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) Profile report for Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) Entertainment N/A
Warner Music Group WMG Value Line report for Warner Music Group (WMG) Profile report for Warner Music Group (WMG) Entertainment 5
Paramount Global PARA Value Line report for Paramount Global (PARA) Profile report for Paramount Global (PARA) Entertainment N/A
TEGNA Inc. TGNA
Hi Steve, Re Posts.....................
Only 3000 more until we hit 50,000!!!
Keep 'em comming!
Best wishes,
OAG
Congratulations JD,
Have you worn out your Decoder yet? If so, replacements are available again.
Nice job!,
OAG Tom
Thanks JD, Re: Ben Carlson Quote.......................
I've already sent this on to some others.
Thanks,
OAG
Good Morning EU, Re: Ideas from the Best/Worst Value Line List...................
Note there are 8 of the 41 worst stocks from the Broadcast/Entertainment sector (Pages # 2300 and up). This is usually a sign that the sector is a bit over-sold. I'll go study the stocks in an over-sold sector to look for the best long term potentials.
Best wishes,
OAG Tom
Hi Will,
Once more, congratulations on being 1st to guess Tomaso's Travels.
You'll find the Decoder will sync up nicely with Mr. Lichello’s AIM over time.
Best wishes,
OAG Tom
It's been lonely here
That Rule has kept me grounded
Knowing what's to come.