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Please wear Chainmail Gloves
if you reach for falling knives
and keep Band-Aids near!
Newton had bubbles
Gravity was the Lesson
I thought this was New!
😎
OAG Tom
Confusion building
adds pressure to market risk
Safety Valve needed
Is SIZE a factor?
Do Large Caps get all the Love?
Small Caps, Wall Flowers.....
Starbucks Galaxy
As viewed - Humble Telescope
Astronomical!
Dollars don't come with
Instructions shown on the back.
Lichello did try!
Cats don't acknowledge
seasonal time adjustments,
they want Breakfast NOW!
Divergence between
the Short and Long v-Wave Risk
This might not end well.........
It's rare that the shorter term risk measure drops as the longer term risk is rising. I guess for shorter term traders this is okay, but longer term investors should note this as a possible bear trap. The 3-5 year risk is at the Caution level now.
Black vs Yellow
Oil falling while Gold's rising
Petrol Price unchanged......
No haiku in sight
confusion is everywhere
AI and Robots..........
While the 18 Month risk forecast did drop with the market "Upset" the 3-5 year risk profile didn't change much. Those fishhook shaped activities at the right end of the graph for the S&P 500 and NASDAQ Composite make would make a Rainbow Trout nervous.
I think that the AI Programs need to take some classes in Fundamental Investing before they 'adjust' their portfolios again.
Risk seems to keep bubbling up like a pot of overheated spaghetti noodles. It spilled over a couple of weeks ago but you would not know it by looking at last Friday's close.
A Sign of the Times
tells more of psychology
than economy.......
Well, we did warn you
Market Risk was just too high
for a bit too long.
Risk ticking upward
indexes showing some Stress
Cash gives some comfort
----------------------------
Can there be a measure of Quality associated with the stock price moves we've seen in the marketplace? I follow the "Best and Worst Performers - Latest 13 Weeks" in Value Line (Page 33 of the Summary & Index section, weekly). This past week's data shows 22 of the top 41 stocks (out of 1700 total) have "Safety" rankings of 4 or 5 (lowest two quintiles). Over on the "Worst" list 30 of those 41 stocks are showing 4 or 5 as well. We'd expect it on the worst stocks list, but 22 on the best list is unexpected. Further, Value Line shows that 11 of the 41 best stocks are currently 'unrated' for their "Timeliness" ranking. 8 of the worst stocks are also unrated.
It's rare to have so many poor timeliness and safety stocks on their "best" list and can be considered a measure of the quality of the stocks so listed. Are we seeing speculative activity in stocks of generally lower quality than other times? That's my suspicion. Maybe it's why the Dow 30 is diverging from the S&P 500 and NASDAQ Composite.
Back when Rum was milk
and Treasure Ships sailed the seas
his known vocation.......
Why are the NASDAQ
and S&P 500
Diverging from Dow?
Another question would be "and for how long can it continue?
Market risk according to the v-Wave contracted slightly in the last week. While still well above the Median, any improvement is welcome.
The v-Wave is based in the Value Line "Appreciation Potential" data available each week in their "Summary & Index" Section. We've been recording it since January of 1982. It has shown good correlation to the markets over time and given fair warning when risk is high (low appreciation potential) and sound encouragement when risk is low (high appreciation potential).
Before Missiles Flew
Advance/Decline started down.
Spring Rally's end, or???
Inflation has slowed
to around 4 Percent mark.
2 above FED goal......
Yellen would suggest
Inflation doesn't erode
Purchasing Power............
If Earnings don't match
upward growth of Stock Prices
this Rally won't last...........
Derived from Elaine Garzarelli's work combining a broad P/E with short term interest rates, the Relative Valuation Index looks at the risk involved in Stocks vs the "risk free" rate of short treasuries. Sadly, right now this 2024 rally looks like it's not backed by either a drop in interest rates or growth in earnings.
Purchasing Power.
Does it decline faster than
Our Trust in the FED?
The 13 Week Treasury Rate has stabilized at around 5.3% yield. In the mean time, CPI Inflation has corrected from the late 2022 high. But the rate at which it is correcting has slowed. Stuck near 4%/Yr, it is a cancer for Citizens living on Fixed Income. It's also far above the Federal Reserve's stated long term inflation target.
The FED doesn't feel Inflation's pain the way Citizens do. Nor do Senators or Congressmen. Where's the accountability?
Markets topping out?
Narrow market breadth says so.
Consolidation.
OAG Tom
Inflation at 4
Half your Purchasing Power
Gone in 18 years
FED Seasonal Gift?
Maybe Markets priced it right.
Election Cycle?
Two weeks of Rally
Major Indexes rising
Will Small-Mid follow?
They did it again
Messed with my BioRhythms
No Daylight was Saved!
"Normalization"
It's taken a long, long time.
But, are we there yet?
If we look at the yield of the 10 Year Treasury at 3.875%/Yr and the 13 Week Treasury at 5.503%/Yr we see the Yield Curve is still upside down. So, to answer my own question, I don't think we've reached "normal" for inflation or interest rates.
Like Paul Carrack said in 1975 in his song "How Long" -
"Well your friends with their fancy persuasions
don't admit that it's part of their scheme...."
https://lnkd.in/eA8EgQWF
Ship, All canvas up
Sensitive to every breeze.
No Rudder astern!
A full set of sails doesn't compensate for lack of a rudder. It's best to have a planned destination before leaving the harbor.
Best wishes,
OAG Tom
When Short crosses Long
Some Storms coming could be strong
With too much, too fast.....
This is the first time we've seen the 18 Month v-W cross the 3-5 year line in over 2 years. Maybe all the short term gains have used up the short term potential.
We formed a Rock Band
We're called "Tommy and the Who"
A Pinball Wizard!!!!!
This is my Chauffeur
He claims I'm Data Driven
in Stock Selection.......
AI
