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Here is a very broad idea of what the Chastang plant can produce in one year. I used the lowest portion of their statement for cubic feet per minute and discounted todays NG price to 90%. Now, I need what royalties go to the owners of the dump, what monies go to Algonquin and what if any go to the pipeline owner. Is that CSMG? Is there a discount for taxes because of the source of fuel? I am building a list of these type questions and would appreciate any answers any of you already have.
CTUM Valuation Updated 2/23/06
Per Press Release 02/15/06 1750 to 2000 "CSMG's separation technology requires 1750 to 2000 cfm"
Per Minute Production EST. 1750
Per Hour Production EST. 105,000
Per Day Production EST. 2,520,000
Per Year Production EST. 919,800,000 BTU's Annually
MMBTU Annual Production 919,800 MMBTU see definition below
N. Gas Value per MMBTU $6.85 As of 02/23/06 at 90% of value
Gross Income per Chastang $6,300,630.00
Airdale
More independent information is available on “Klyon” and “Chukotka” than prior mines AURC acquired, but it isn’t much. Here are copies of two articles mentioning them. The date on the first article is May of 2002 with an estimated production date of 2007. I think it is wonderful that we now have 7.1 million ounces of gold reserves, but I too would really like the financials and production schedules in hand. Also, since it looks like we won’t be producing gold at Chukotka this year, perhaps the reindeer herding will come in handy. Does anyone know if this is a lucrative business?
AIMHO Airdale
http://www.novosib.ru/news/?index=2122&english=t
22.05.02 Chukotka Autonomous District to Develop New Gold-Ore Deposit
KHABAROVSK, May 22. /FIS/. Northern Ore Technologies JSC has started design and equipment the development of a new gold-ore deposit called "Klyon" (Maple) in the Bilibinsk district of the Chukotka autonomous region. The first commercial batch of gold is expected for production in 5 years. On May 20, a special committee headed by the district's governor will select the sites for construction of industrial facilities and installation of equipment. Approval of technical and project documentation will be made this fall.
http://www.lngplants.com/ChukotkaMinerals.html
Geography: Chukotka is located on the Chukotka Peninsula and adjoining mainland. The area includes Wrangel, Ratmanov, and other islands. It borders on Yakutia, Kamchatka and Magadan, and three major arctic seas: the East Siberian, Chukchi, and Bering. The area is located at the confluence of two large rivers, the Sernoi and Enmyvaam. The Anadyr River flows through the very center of the area.
Economy: Gold mining is the peninsula's primary industry. The leading industrial sectors are the power, coal, gold-mining, food, and fishing industries. The city of Anadyr is a center of the food industry, while Uelen is a center for artistic trades. Agriculture specialities include reindeer herding, fur farming and trapping, sea mammal hunting, and greenhouse vegetable growing.
Trader V, I mostly agree with your thoughts. Regarding dilution, I think the Russians are always going to put pressure on Parkin and the Canadians to keep O/S to a minimum. The 68% of float they own becomes about half that with another hundred million shares out and they will always want the lions share of the company. They came to the western capitalists to increase the value through production. They are not going to go easily with massive dilution of their initial ownership.
My understanding is they are doing a re-audit of field assets. With a confirmation of the 5.2 mil gold and 30 mil silver, at current prices, they will be north of $4 billion in assets. (also gold and silver up again for the second day, the downward and short-lived correction may be over) With that many assets you can borrow a lot of money or find a partner real easy IMO.
I think you are spot on with the firm making the loan. If they are reputable and have name value, we go up big. An unknown with a spurious history will not help and may hurt.
I think you’re way low on the loan amount required. Just one 150 ton truck is about a half a million bucks. They will need about 10 or so, then dredging gear, cranes, perhaps crushers, smelter equip. This is going to cost some major dollars to do right. Here is an article about a Barrick joint project and a $160 million price tag to produce less gold than AURC. This area is key to AURUS success in reaching their goal of 384,000 oz annually. It is going to take some time to acquire a loan, build the infrastructure and get production going. But I believe it will be well worth it.
IMHO
Airdale
Sorry you're having such problems with your grammar and research Brokedown. Since several other posters have helped correct your due diligence problems, let me help you with the grammar portion. "Nobody see" should actually be "Anybody see". "Nobody saw" would also be correct if you’re looking at a past tense. While I'm here, nice going on getting a bookmark. Looks like you're really getting to be a well-respected poster. If you need help from any of the posters that trade for a profession, you can probably just ask, I'll bet they'd help you. Hang in their little fella, you'll get the hang of this securities trading thingy.
Airdale.
Rookie, you're fine. Your shares are safe, I don't imagine a lot of shorting is occuring right now and the stock you have selected is an exceptional value, IMO.
Shorting simply means your brokerage or another brokerage they loan your shares to, borrows against them and creates more shares than exit. In essence, they sell shares first and buy back later. A very, very common practice, perfectly normal and very legal. However, sometimes a small cap will have such an enormous quantity of shares shorted and it can strangle the company. (Try borrowing money when your share price is diluted by 100% or more). IF, AURC had 110,000,000 shares shorted, it basically means that the float would be twice as large as normal and this can suppress the price per share enormously. IMO, AURC was shorted heavily from its release down to its bottom at .013 cents. I believe most shorts have been covered but some still exist.
Do I think it is a problem for AURC, no. Do I want brokerage to offer my shares for shorting, no. Therefore, I contacted my brokerage and said I wanted a cash account and a no-shorting policy placed on all my securities.
Airdale
Pug, my understanding is there are currently 109,671,530 shares outstanding, according to the Transfer Agent. At least 1/2 of 1% more shares than are outstanding have been sold. Meaning, at least 548,358 more shares have been sold than exist. If you do not hold a certificate for your shares, or, your account has not been set to disallow borrowed shares, you could be legally enabling someone to borrow your shares for shorting.
Airdale
Checked today to see if we are still on the SHO list and as of the 10th we are. Here is a link for those who have an interest. http://www.nasdaqtrader.com/aspx/regsho.aspx. I called and talked to a service representative at Ameritrade three or four months ago and was told I could request verbally that my account be excempted from short loans. Thought I would check the status of that last week and sent an email. Bottom line, my shares are still loanable/shortable until I send a letter requesting otherwise. Typing it up right after this. Here, other than my name, is an exact copy of the text an Ameritrade account rep. sent on Saturday:
Dear XXXXX XXXXX:
A margin account permits investors to borrow funds from their brokerage firm to purchase marginable securities on credit and to borrow against marginable securities already in the account. All securities and other property held in the margin account may be pledged, re-pledged, hypothecated, or re-hypothecated, without notice to the account owner and Ameritrade may or may not retain in its possession or under its control an equal amount of similar property or securities. Ameritrade is authorized to lend any securities held on margin in the account to itself as broker or to others, unless and until Ameritrade receives written notice of revocation from the account owner.
Clients who have a debit balance in their margin accounts may have their stocks loaned to Ameritrade as broker or to others. If you wish to not have your securities loaned out , you will need to either:
1) Reduce your debit balance to zero by liquidating securities or depositing funds to pay the debit amount.
Or
2) Elect to have all securities in your account exempt from short sell loans. Your request will apply to all positions in your account; requests cannot be made for specific securities only. If you prefer this choice, send a written request stating that you do not want your securities loaned for short sell transactions. We can only take this request in writing, not via phone. Mail the written request to:
Ameritrade Clearing
Attn: Security Lending
1005 North Ameritrade Place
Bellevue, NE 68005
Please be sure that your request is received 10 business days prior to the ex-dividend date to ensure your shares are not loaned on the ex-dividend date. Please keep in mind that your request will apply to all positions in your account; requests cannot be made for specific securities only.
Sincerely,
Tovunya C.
Apex Client Services, Ameritrade
Division of Ameritrade, Inc.
Original Message Excluded:
Av8torak, it is too bad many of us residing within the realms of freedom and out of harms way don’t have your perspective of life and our money hoardings proper place therein. The drop in TRBY’s price has frustrated and aggravated most everyone holding this security as a long. It seems that this board, more than any other I read has had its share of angry souls venting and making personal attacks on Tom, his staff, the board moderator, or anyone else sharing positive thoughts. Personally, I find the attacks unsavory, dehumanizing and a display of ill character. But, the rights of those who step forth to spew vile on others is a gift from persons like yourself to each of us, that dwell within the boundaries of this country. Unlike many, I don’t know where TRBY is headed and sadly I simply hope for the best. However, by utilizing your perspective of personal sacrifice of time, lost friends, family and comforts of life I can certainly feel better about my situation than before I read your post. I thank you for your sacrifice on my behalf and your words of council. The world needs more souls like yourself.
Airdale
What is the average PE Ratio for a gold stock? Went to Yahoo’s finance-metals-gold section and looked up each gold firm listed and their PE ratio. Of all the stocks basically in our category, the OTC, none were in the black. No surprise there, but it does say this is probably an all or nothing proposition. Many larger cap firms were in the red and showed no PE. To me this is amazing with the rise in gold prices the past year or two. Even with a 30% rise in price and no meaningful labor cost hikes, people are losing money? No comment.
I like the richness of concentrate of our fields, our low labor cost, availability of manpower, our experience in Feldbush, our affiliation with RSM Top-Audit, our no debt situation and the pressure on gold to continue rising in price. I don’t like our weather situation, our distance from civilization and our potential indebtedness for equipment upgrades/or dilution. That being said, here are some of the PE ratios I could dig up:
AU 375
GLG 214
PDG 105
ABX 41
GG 39
RTP 13
TCB 11
Overall, I feel very conservative valuing ours based on a PE of ten.
AIMHO
Airdale
Gold price tied to cost of oil and other thoughts- Some great dialogue from some here yesterday IMO. Trops, I really like your analysis based on "proven reserves" thank you for providing your point of view. Along with that, I talked with my accountant yesterday. He worked for Price Waterhouse before being an independent. He said they always underestimate something like reserves to protect their reputation. 2Create, I really appreciate your value analysis. We are within pennies of each other right now if I bump the PE up to about 12 but I'm leaving it where it is to cover any taxes. Congratulations to Rrufff, 2Create, and Bighorn on being our new moderators. Hope you walk quietly but carry a big stick with all of us incorrigibles.
It seems Iran, Nigeria, Iraq, Al Qeada, and an increase in demand for oil worldwide will keep the prices high and climbing.
We sit in a natural price hedge with AURC with the potential to be far more than just a hedge against inflation and turmoil.
All in my humble opinion- Airdale
Precious metals and energy stocks
Gold regains ground, rises more than one percent
LONDON, Feb 9 - A security scare in the United States and a recovery in crude oil prices lifted gold more than one percent on Thursday as fund buyers returned to the market.
The metal was now seen moving up towards last week's 25-year peak, dealers said.
"The markets have stabilised and the sell-off has not become a complete panic. For the moment, it looks like just a healthy correction," said Stephen Briggs, economist at SG Corporate and Investment Banking.
He said metals had become a fashionable investment and the appetite had not diminished.
"For the time being, nobody wants to miss out and more and more people are being told: 'Look at these other people who have made money by being in metals, you have lost money, you must get into commodities,'" Briggs said.
Spot gold rose to as high as $559.50 ounce before retreating to $558.10/559.00 by 1026 GMT. That was higher than $550.10/551.00 late in New York but remained below last week's $574.60, the highest since January 1981.
A suspected nerve agent forced the evacuation of the Senate office building late on Wednesday until tests concluded the vapour that set off the alarm was harmless, police said.
"The bulls may be concerned about terror attacks, and that triggered some buying," said Ronald Leung, director of Lee Cheong Gold Dealers in Hong Kong, adding that stop-loss buying had emerged at $555.
Oil recovered to around $63 a barrel, after being pushed down by a big build in U.S. gasoline stocks that created a supply cushion ahead of summer demand. [nSP122237]
Other markets also improved, with base metals trading above the previous day's closes and looking set to consolidate before heading higher. [nL09698927]
BULLISH TONE
"With gold seemingly finding support in the $540's and regaining the $550 level, the metal is likely to be cautiously bullish with targets above of $560 and $580," Standard Bank said in its daily market note.
Merrill Lynch said it had raised its long-term gold price forecast to $500 from $400 because of rising fabrication demand and chances of only modest growth in mine production.
Gold fell to its lowest level in three weeks at $544.90 an ounce on Wednesday after fund managers booked profits from the metal's recent highs. Gold gained 18 percent in 2005 and about 10 percent this year.
Other precious metals tracked gold's gains, with platinum rising more than 1 percent and silver moving away from its lowest level in two weeks.
But gold trading is expected to be volatile, with more liquidation seen in Tokyo futures in coming days. Dealers also noted limited demand from jewellers and investors despite the recent correction.
Platinum increased to $1,064/1,068 an ounce from $1,047/1,051 late in New York. Palladium also rose to $297/301 an ounce from $288/293.
Silver rose to $9.55/9.58 an ounce from New York's levels of $9.42/9.45 an ounce, and off a two-week low of $9.23 hit on Wednesday
See how AURC compares with this goldmine. This was pasted on Rigatoni's Platinum board. Please note the word "rich" used with 6+ grams per ton of ore. I laugh out loud. Some of our mines are up over 20-28 grams of AU per ton. What would they call that?? By the way, after talking to Mr. Parkin today, my valuation of AURC went up about 10%. IMHO Airdale
Pearl Asian Mining Industries: Significant Gold and Silver Deposits Discovered at the XYZ Gold Mine: Geologist Recoverable Yield Estimate 1.5 Million Tons, an Average Grade of 6.34 Grams/Ton Gold (AU) and 37.24 Grams/Ton Silver (AG) in 20 Hectares Only
Wednesday February 8, 2:02 pm ET
Estimated Gross Value of $327,930,000.00 at $500.00/Ounce of Gold and $19,444,300.00 at $8.00/Ounce of Silver
PASIG CITY, Philippines--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Feb. 8, 2006--Pearl Asian Mining Industries (OTC:PAIM - News) releases the summary report on the Geological Resource Studies within the 20 hectares of the XYZ Gold Mines Site Mineral Deposits.
The current tenement portfolios of PAIM are: (1) Small Scale Mining Claim Permit (SSMP) - 20 hectares, (2) Mineral Production Sharing Agreement (MPSA) - 720.00 hectares, (3) Exploration Permit Application (EPA) - 1,807.4773 hectares.
The recent exploration based on the Geological report of the Gil Apuya's MAYON Geological Company states that the present Geologic Resource of XYZ Gold Mine is about 1.5 million tons at a grade of 3.04 g/t-Gold (AU) and 19.96 g/t-Silver (AG). PAIM's team interpretation or projection as to mineable resource (projected to be mined or extracted) is about 446,592 tons at a grade of 5.13 g/t-Gold and 31.14 g/t-Silver. The mineable resources are categorized into low grade source of about 120,000 tons at a grade of 1.84 g/t (grams per ton)-Au (Gold) and 14.50 g/t (grams per ton)-Ag (Silver). The high grade source of about 326,592 tons at a grade of 6.34 g/t-Au; 37.24 g/t-Ag. These ores to be mined will be processed by heap leaching C-I-L and ELSA methods. The abandoned tunnels 3 and 4 are included in the projected high grade zone. The high grade zone or block of mineable resource of 326,592 tons using interpolation started from trench no. 1 at elevation 220 meters up to trench no. 4 at elevation 300 meters with a strike length of 400 meters. The 400 meters strike length was projected downward until elevation 160 meters, where abandoned tunnel no. 1 is situated. The average grade of the block of 6.34 g/t-AU; 37.24 g/t-AG were derived from the surface of tunnels 3 and 4 samples. The block grades were projections and will be confirmed once the tunnels are rehabilitated and sampled.
The estimates are based on projections derived from trench 1 down to tunnel 1 and possibly beyond tunnel 1 extending east and is subject for field investigation. Basing on the initial exploration results, the XYZ mineral deposit is an epithermal vein type deposit. The extent of the deposit at depth must be further studied through rehabilitation of old tunnels and core drilling to acquire more geological data and increase resource potential.
Wildworks, the bloodpressure mediation is on the second shelf of the medicine cabinet. I would recommend an extra dose. In my discussions with Mr. Parkin, he has used the words "should", I"hope" and other suggestive words. He has never "promised" anything to me. I find it rather odd that an attorney who has made his living based on the use of words in contracts would promise you anything. I would also suggest you call Mr. Parkin yourself and elict from him why he broke his promise to you. Furthermore, you should put me on ignore since my posts seem to inflame you. Good luck in your future investing.
Airdale
Conversation with Mr. Parkin today
Still working on the Website. It is being finalized and is near completion. They are still planning on providing bi-weekly updates on progress. I commented that accurate bi-weekly reports would build a strong relationship between management and shareholders and would create better share price support.
The Russian government is very easy to work with in all aspects, easier than the Canadian government. Permits, licenses, accounting all handled by RSM Top-Audit and smooth. Mentioned that RSM has 700 employees.
Gold prices he leaves to the experts and the market.
Production will be relatively flat year around. He reiterated subterranean mining in winter and surface in warmer months.
Russia is inexpensive compared to other major gold producing countries and should be less than $300 cost to produce an ounce of AU.
Selling of gold is not a problem with multiple sources seeking the material. Freight costs are unknown by Mr. Parkin at this time.
They will work the mines with larger yields per ton first.
He really cannot comment on the Exchange or their plans for the future.
Thoughts on my end are as follows:
An energetic French speaking women answered the phone this call, much preferred to Mr. Parkin who answered the first call, it seemed far more professional.
He seemed very busy but willing to talk.
I’m pleased that I asked the question about how tough it is doing business in Russia. That was one of my main concerns going into this stock. Now, it is of no concern, the Russians want outside help in developing their economy.
I think we will all be pleasantly surprised at the profit margins this little company kicks out. I think production costs will be very low and I believe 5.2 million oz. of AU might be pretty conservative.
One gets the feeling from talking with Mr. Parkin that RSM is very involved in the everyday financial operations of Aurus.
For the nervous nellies out there, Mr. Parkin doesn’t have a lot of control over when reports, the website, and any governmental forms will be made available to us. RSM will not allow the release of anything until it is ready for presentation.
For those of you questioning Mr. Parkins integrity relating to the release of information, give the man a chance before making defamatory statements or accusations. I would rather an accurate report be presented to us than a retraction that would be a huge embarrassment to the firm.
Lastly, I am sad that Treepeople is gone. I don’t know him, I have never talked to him and we will probably never meet. But one can get the gist of what type of person participates on a message board by their interaction with others. He seems to be of very high character and one can never meet enough of this type of person in a lifetime.
Airdale
CD, I would really like PBLS to get onto a better stock exchange the old fashioned way. Earn it. IMO we are where we are pricewise because we're a pinky without full reporting and some questions about legitimacy, for some. I will forego a quick move into a shell for a slow methodical by the books and go through all the proper steps company. It will create credibility to all the investors and potential investors for PBLS. It will also reinforce what they have been saying for months. That they are going to be full reporting, completely tranparent auditable firm that is moving to a better exchange. I don't think trying a shortcut will provide the same confidence in PBLS.
That being said, I am in no hurry. I am not flipping this thing, I am holding, but that is one opinion.
Airdale
Rookie, here is my current list of questions:
What is the goal for having the website up and going?
Do you still plan on having bi-weekly updates on it?
How difficult is the Russian government/bureaucracy to deal with?
-Getting permits for mining?
-Purchasing equipment from out of country?
-Hiring practices?
-If not a difficult thing to deal with, does it help immeasurably to have a Russian partner that has connections or an understanding of how to deal with them?
-Have you or do you anticipate having to pay officials under the table?
Where do you envision gold prices in the next year? Two years?
Will you sell gold to the same source or do you have multiple sources from which to sell?
Is gold sold as will call or will you pay shipping charges?
Do you have seasonal production highs, say summer and then drastic drops in production in winter or can it be built to be fairly level?
Can you provide any guidance at this point regarding new equipment costs and goals for a timeframe to have in place?
Of your mining properties, what is the lowest gold in ounces per ton? Can you provide an average for all the properties?
Is your strategy to go after the richest AU per ton properties first to establish stronger income streams, after exhausting the huge revenue producers to mine the lower AU per ton props with the additional revenue in pocket?
You got a corporate shell and put Aurus into it. Are you happy with being on the pinks? If not, what are you goals for an exchange? Have you established a timeframe for reaching this goal? Can you share it? When can we revisit this question?
Tree, you have been a terrific moderator. You have allowed all types on the board and have not over reacted when pumper/bashers have pushed both ends of the spectrum. When they crossed the line, you pushed back hard. Now the important part. I hope that this has nothing to do with your health or family in any fashion. Either way, God speed and the best to you.
Airdale
I am calling Gerald tomorrow afternoon. If anyone has intelligent questions they want asked, list them and I'll put them in front of him.
Airdale
Swanky, we are worth a whole lot more than .17 per share. The world is nearing a critical shortage state on many metals including gold. Read Benzdealers post #1619. We have 8/10's of an ounce of gold in a ton of earth. That is an amazing amount of gold in a piece of earth a couple of feet cubed. Your shares are worth dollars per. Be patient and Hang on to em.
Airdale
RUCrazy, What a wonderful soul you are. Thanks for taking the time to inform all of us with the latest answers to some good questions. Also, I offer a tip of the hat to Tr8dervic for his resourcefulness in tying the SEC filings of NDOL to Mr. Parkin. Every nuance of legitimacy provides confidence to the wavering longs among us.
Thoughts on some of the answers: I like that we have little to no additional financial exposure from uranium tailings and enviro problems.
The Soviet regime went through the area and gleaned uranium but mapped the other minerals. It's interesting when gold isn't the primary goal of a search.
I like that Top-Audit AND Feldbush had input on the gold production goals and not just Feldbush. It provides just one more source for realistic production goals.
Not happy with seven ore sites. Their previous pubs list three main sites. This just means more expense for dredging, digging, maintaining and transporting. Dollars outta our pockets. An article on another gold producer in the area stated they were spending $327 million to produce about 1 million ounces per year. This may stretch the $100 million I had used for a cost basis. But, if they keep it to one smelter site, we may be ok.
Love the question regarding a small dividend. Anytime you can burn a short, in this stock, its OK by me.
For Top-Audit to approach Gerald Parkin on two projects, gold AURC & oil NDOL, and still have their name affiliated with both speaks volumes for his quality.
We have some good info seekers and thinkers on this board. Glad to be amongst you.
Rucrazy, Thanks. Thanked Benz cause I'm half asleep and full on stupid.
Thanks again,
Airdale
RUCrazy, Gerald Parkin and I have agreed to talk next week. Since you are already making a call, could you ask the following questions for me?
Do you have any plans to subcontract ore processing for zinc, copper, tin and lead?
Are there any quantities of uranium in area?
Are there any Environmental concerns over lead ore being left about instead of being processed? Any other enviro type problems you forsee?
Have you thought about bringing on partners for portions of the processing?
What is your estimate of what the price tag be for equipment for the upgrading of the mines to meet full production capablities?
Japan is probably closer than Europe, is equipment from there an option?
What is your time frame to achieving your full production goal?
Are you basing the full production goals on Victor Feldbush's estimates?
Do you have you a target goal for share value? If so can you share that goal?
Would you consider $350 per ounce of gold a good basis from which to estimate costs of your production?
Typically kilns must be heated 24/7, have they been running three shifts or skeleton crews to maintain the kilns?
Will there be more than one location with crushers, kilns and smelters
Will you fully equip all three sites with dredges, shovels, maintenance and trucks?
If gold hits $750 or $900 per ounce as some are saying, would you consider selling the mines for $1.50 per ounce value?
Thanks Benz,
Airdale
AURC at $5.00 per share value soon? Mejerrylee’s lovely article states that French banking giant Credit Agricole is “raising our mid-cycle gold price estimate to USD900/oz from USD750/oz and see the possibility of a spike to USD2,000, or higher”. IF, the $750 per ounce comes true, up from our current approx. $570 per ounce value, we are immediately worth $180 more per ounce. That is without lifting a shovel or crushing an ore rock.
Buyout Value?
IF someone were to pay just $110 per ounce for rights to AURC’s minefields, the purchaser would still make over $220 dollars per ounce in profits. (based on a high $400 per ounce production cost and $730 minus the $110 per ounce sales price). The silver is an additional give away for around $25,000.000 per year to the purchaser. 5.2 million ounces times $1.10 per ounce is $572,000,000.00/110,000,000 shares is $5.20 per ounce. So we round down to reach the $5.00 per share.
Above scenario and gold hits $900 and someone offered $150, share price is $7.00. They earn $350 per oz.
Another look at this is, if our existing 110,000,000 shares own the 5,200,000 oz of AURC’s gold reserves, which we do, each share owns 0.047273 oz of gold. Each 100,000 shares of stock own 4,727 ounces of gold reserve. How many shares/ounces do you own? Times your total shares held by the .047273 to learn your gold total. Yea right, I’ll be selling my shares for a quarter each.
What would stop a country like China from trying to purchase metal rights to our mines through a third party. They want 3000 tons of Gold for their reserves and we many times that. Our 162 tons is worth, a ton.
Please note that I am taking back all those French war jokes I’ve told over the years. Oh, and Mr. Parkin, count me in as a yes vote on the sale of the mines. Hey, a guy can dream can’t he?
Price per share value at $750 per ounce if we stay at 110 million shares maintain ownership? $13.00
Just goofin’ around, but every investor and every company need an exit strategy.
All in my humble opinion,
Airdale
Creede Bighorn, Very nice post. I just sat and watched today as some sold and bragged, some condemned and some just held. I am a holder long term, based on Mr. Parkins upcoming presentation. I think on stocks with large O/S you can flip and watch it move around with some safety to climb back in. But on small floats such as this, I'm not smart enough to time everything. How, on a chart with less than two months of activity, can you create enough history to see the future? Wow, there are some talented people.
I liked today actually. Yesterday we had a very small buy at the end of the day that placed us at .19 plus, but reality for the majority of the day was really a .14-.17 range. We gapped today and many took their profits and beat their chests and the stock went down to the middle of yesterday and then back up. Now, that the easy money has been made, we have shed many of the short termers. I don't think, however that the big money has been made. It may take a year or even two for the infrastruture that will support this large mining operation to work its magic. But once it starts producing, then the big rewards will come. Perhaps ten fold or more than where we sit today. I can wait.
Industry: gold very hot and getting hotter
Country: Russia very hot and just beginning
Stock: AURC very undervalued and just getting started
This is a rare metal and based on supply and demand it is getting rarer. Man I like where we are sitting.
All in my humble opinion
Airdale
Ninja, here is the quote, it is from the article you brought to the board, thank you.
Chen Feng reports, Teng Tai, an economist of China Galaxy Securities Company said "China should increase its gold reserve from 600 tons to about 2,500 tons in a short term and to 3,000 tons in a long term to cope with the versatile exchange rate risks...
600 as a minimum short term purchase and possibly 2500. 3000 long term to be added to their existing stock.
You're right, using Tonnes takes a little more out of circulation and puts more presure on a price rise. Instead of confusing people, I'm just rounding.
Thanks,
Airdale
Latest AURC valuation based on $570 per ounce gold price, silver at $9.89 and an Eric Hommelberg article on cost of gold production placing it around $350 per ounce. The Hommelberg article also quotes Newmont CEO Pierre Lassonde saying add $7.50 per ounce for every 100 tons taken out of the market. China is looking at a minimum of 600 tons short term and 3000 long. Gold production has peaked and is declining in a market of increasing needs. Some experts see gold at over $1000 per ounce in 4 to 5 years. I have links below for you to check my info and I welcome any critique on my valuation.
I have held this stock from under .03 and based on what we hear from Gerald Parkin in the next few releases, I am holding into late 06 at a minimum. In all seriousness, based on current OS and production goals, and current gold prices, this stock is worth $5.00 per share. Using the dilution of all 500 million shares and projected capacity it is $1.73, all based on a PE of 10. Now, we wait for the man I may call "My President" Mr. Parkin. This could be the stock of a lifetime.
All IMHO
Airdale
Current Share Structure UPDATED 1/31/06
Authorized 500,000,000
Outstanding 109,700,000 Thanks to Rigatoni
Restricted 91,000,000 One year restrict from Dec 2005
Cur Float 18,700,000
No preferred shares outstanding
Reserves as Stated by TOP AUDIT
AU less 5% on spot 5,200,000 ozs $550.00 $2.86 Billion
AG less 5% on spot 30,000,000 ozs $9.50 $285 million $
Tin 65,400 Tons
Lead 79,203 Tons
Copper 17,730 Tons
Zinc 336,965 Tons
January 2006 Metals valuation $3,145,000,000.00
Production Value per ton
Value Value Total Value
Quantity Metal per oz per LB per ton
0.8 Ounces per ton AU $550.00 $440.00
4.7 Ounces per ton AG $9.50 $44.65
25 Pounds per ton of Tin
128 Pounds per ton Lead
7 Ibs per ton of Copper
129 lbs per ton of Zinc
Metal value per ton of processed ore $484.65
Production Estimate per Year and Value
Value Value
Quantity Metal per OZ per LB Annual Value
384000 oz of Gold $550.00 $211,200,000.00
2256000 oz of Silver $9.50 $21,432,000.00
12000000 lbs of Tin $3.00
60000000 lbs of Lead $0.50
3360000 lbs of Copper $2.13
92640000 lbs of Zinc $0.93
Value
Annual Income Expense Est. Val. Per oz. Annual Prod Annual Value
Annual Gross Inc * $550.00 384000 $232,632,000.00
? $9.50 2256000
Annual Expense Estimate $350.00 384000 $145,920,000.00
Gross Income $86,712,000.00
*Based on conversation with Mr. Parkin the sale
value of brick gold is slightly less than spot price
?Based on conversation with Mr. Parkin the cost
to produce 1 oz of gold is less than $400 per oz
Cost figure to produce an ounce of gold is $350.00
Annual Loan Service
$100,000,000.00 in financing for equipment Annual Expense $15,000,000.00
Based on conversation some have had with Mr.
Parkin, he plans to finance and not dilute the
existing share structure past the 110 million.
Estimated Annual Income at full production and Financing $71,712,000.00
SHARE VALUATION
Outstanding Aurc Value
Shares Annual Income Income Per Share at a PE of 10
Current + Finance 109,700,000 $71,712,000.00 $0.55 $5.45
OS of 200,000,000 $86,712,000.00 $0.43 $4.34
OS of 300,000,000 $86,712,000.00 $0.29 $2.89
OS of 400,000,000 $86,712,000.00 $0.22 $2.17
Current A/S 500,000,000 $86,712,000.00 $0.17 $1.73
% of full valuation at cur. price $0.194 $5.45 3.6%
$4.34 4.5%
$2.89 6.7%
$2.17 8.9%
$1.73 11.2%
Miscellaneous
480000 Tons of oar to be processed annually
1600 Tons processed per day on a 300 day work year
Labor expense per man hrs per wk 50
wks per yr 52
Average per hour $4.00 Annual Income 2600 $10,400.00
Men required 500 $5,200,000.00
~2002 Labor statistics yielded Russian Labor at 1/11th of US per capita income.
~Basing this on a $20.00 per hour of US labor yields a rate of about $1.80 per hour
Round upt to 1/7th of US income ration yields the $3.00 per hour income. I used $4.00 per.
For competitive comparison, Mr. Parkin stated that labor costs are 25% below South Africa
the country with which all compete for sales.
~Gold has been processed very profitably in the US at $400.00 per ounce since 2004, the estimate
for income is at least $250 per ton of ore. This does not include any other metal income, just AU.
~Per conversation with Mr. Parkin, Gold and silver are the only two metals being processed at
the site. I will ask if they have plans of subcontracting copper, zinc, lead etc producton.
~Projected cost to produce an ounce of gold is $350.
"Exploration programs weren't profitable below $350 per ounce from 1997-2002". Eric Hommelberg*
Note: The $350.00 per ounce figure was based on US production with over 10 times greater earnings
per man. Also note lower yields per ton of Gold in the US mining ores.
~Gold prices will like oil continue to rise, industiralization of Brazil, India, China, and East Europe,
increase of high end electronics will continue to place upward pressure on the baseline need for Gold.
~Gold production has peaked and is dropping despite an increased demand*****
~Also China's immediate goal to obtain 600-1900 tonnes short term and 3000 tons long term will put
upward presure on the price of AU. "According to
you can add $7.5 dollars to the price of Gold for every 100 tons taken out of the market".*****
Using 600 tons as the short term goal, this fixes the upward price at $45 per ounce.
This article was published on December 27, 2005 when gold was at $540.
Many experts are predicting $1000 an ounce in the next four to five years.
http://goldprice.org/news/2005/12/chinas-gold-reserve.html China gold buys
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_04/hommelberg122004.html Quoted article*****
http://www.infomine.com/investment/metalschart.asp Spot metal prices
http://www.worldbank.org/annualreport/2002/box/table6_1.pdf#search='russian%20per%20capita%20income'....
Per capita inc.
http://www.kitco.com/market/ Current metal pr.
Top Ten Reasons for Investing In AURC
10. Benzdealer has a cool and wealthy sounding moniker
9. Treepeople picks winners
8. Westeffer controls most of this and he won’t sell cheap
7. China will buy much of this years refined gold
6. Developing areas of the world are requiring more gold
5. 110 million shares OS with 91 million restricted
4. AURC Management is leaning toward financing not diluting
3. 30 Mil oz of silver in AURC properties via TOP AUDIT
2. 5.2 Mil oz of gold reserves in AURC properties via TOP AUDIT
and, the number one reason for owning AURC
1. 384,000 ounces of gold refined annually times an upcoming $600 dollars an ounce!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
All IMHO
Airdale
2Create, I appreciate your work on valuing AURC. Gold and silver rising in price will only drive our valuation higher. Thank you.
Did you derive the $20 million equipment costs from conversation with Mr. Parkin?
Keep up with the wonderful work.
Airdale
Intelligent group of stock holders in AURC in MO. This core group undertands the dynamics of own and hold. With 18 mil shares, we pretty much own this thing. And, if China is indeed short term buying 2500 tons of gold as they have stated, they are going to need every ounce produced this year worldwide.
I don't know anything about this author or his accuracy but it is an interesting article on gold availability and potential future value. By the way, we are headed for $600 per ounce IMHO.
Gold & Supply
Eric Hommelberg
This is chapter III of the Gold drivers 2005 report and focus on a declining Gold production coming years. A declining Gold supply only increases the pressure on a already tight physical Gold market . According to Newmont CEO Pierre Lassonde you can add $7.5 dollars to the price of Gold for every 100 ton of Gold taken out of the market.
Gold production is approximately 2500 ton a year nowadays and projected to fall down to 2000 ton a year this decade. Alarm Bells were being raised everywhere since 2002 but it took a long time before falling Gold production got some media attention. Nevertheless it seems that the awareness is growing :
Mineweb.com reported on falling Gold production Nov 24 :
The pressure is on for physical gold.
London (Mineweb.com), Nov 25, 2004
"Demand is growing and production is falling. That is according to the latest gold supply and demand trends published by the World Gold Council covering the third quarter released this morning (November 25) and which show a contraction in supply against growth in demand."
"The figures, compiled for the World Gold Council by GFMS Ltd indicated that supply contracted sharply during Q3, dropping by 22.4 percent to 828t, against 1066t in the third quarter of last year." END.
The fact that a declining Gold supply could have a serious impact on the price of Gold coming years is gaining more credibility lately. Dow Jones News Service quoted Merril Lynch Gold fund manager Evy Hambro on falling mine output and its impact on the Gold price.
Dow Jones News Service
Falling mine output over the coming years
Wednesday, November 10, 2004
SYDNEY -- Merrill Lynch Investment Managers have a favorable outlook for gold, underpinned primarily by emerging pressures on supply, a leading member of the firm's London-based natural resources team said late Tuesday.
Amid "relatively static" demand, falling mine output over the coming years and the potential for a reduction in European central bank sales stand to prolong the rally in U.S. dollar gold prices, Merrill gold fund manager Evy Hambro explained during a visit to Sydney.
Already in 2002 a study published by Beacon Group Advisors forecasted a decline of Gold production of 35% for the following 5 to 8 years. (see graph below)
The reason for this was a lack of Exploration during the 1997 - 2002 period. During this period Exploration budgets had been cut by 67% simply due to the fact that Exploration programs weren't profitable with a Gold price below $350 / ounce. No Exploration means no new Gold deposits ! It's as simple as that !
Now let's focus on the Alarm Bells being raised since 2002 :
April 2002 : AngloGold
AngloGold also sounds alarm on Gold supply !
Gold Mining companies have warned that supplies of the precious metal are poised to fall sharply. The latest producer to sound the alarm bell that the industry was running out of Gold faster than it could replace it was world number two miner AngloGold, which predicted that the big discoveries of the past 20 years would run dry.
Sept 2002 : Denver Mining Conference.
Gold Executives this week gave anecdotal and numerical evidence of trends the industry has long hoped would boost what has been an ailing industry. Those trends include steady drops in yearly global output of Gold as Miners merge or "mothball" properties that can't turn a profit at Gold's current price of $322 an ounce !
Sept 2002 : CBS Market watch.
Global Gold output is seen falling 3% this year. It's biggest drop since 1976
Sept 2002 : Reuters
Gold output on slippery slope. Production levels at Gold Mines might not be sustainable because of depleted reserves at mature North American Mine operations and a fall on new mines on steam.
October 2002: The Australian Institute of Geoscientists.
The decline in Australia's Gold Industry continues.
Declining Exploration in Australia's Gold Industry is continuing to hurt production, with Gold dropping a further 8% in the year to June 30.
END.
Then in March 2003 the strongest warning regarding dwindling Gold reserves came from Barrick's Exploration VP Alex Davidson who said :
"Big mining companies need to spend more on exploration, or else, at current annual production rates, reserves will be depleted in 10 years, he said. It can take six to eight years between making a discovery and starting mine production, and "we're not currently funding exploration at a level required to replace reserves," Davidson said."
A declining gold production can't be reversed easily :
Newmont president Pierre Lassonde said (August 2003) :
"The 20-year bear market in gold has weeded out marginal gold producers and significantly curbed exploration and production.". "If gold was $1,000 an ounce, it still takes four to seven years to open a mine," END.
Barrick CEO Greg Wilkins said more or less the same, he said (Nov 2004) :
"The average lead time for a large discovery to go on-stream with production was around five to seven years but that seven to 10 years was probably more realistic. ". "The industry isn't going to be able to respond immediately to higher gold prices. It is going to take a long time." END.
Trevor Steel, partner at Baker Steel Capital Managers told delegates at a two-day Euromoney gold seminar recently :
"The way I like to think of it is that the gold industry is in overdraft. It's been relying very much on discoveries that were made many, many years ago and it is not replacing the reserves it is mining every year,"
During 2004 it became clear that indeed the gold producers are struggling in order to keep up with production, the following headlines tells it all :
Thursday February 12, 2004
AngloGold saw reserves fall by 9.2-m ounces last year
AngloGold's Geologists failed to replace all the ounces it produced last year.
Monday February 16, 2004
Ashanti Announces Gold Production Lower Than Forecast
Tuesday March 2, 2004
SA gold output 4,9% lower in 2003.
Friday March 12,
Gap in Gold Production Looming
Friday April 2, 2004
Harmony Gold cuts production by 6%
Sun May 23, 2004
Aussie gold output hits record low
Friday June 18 2004
South African gold production tumbles 8.3% in first quarter
Thursday July 8, 2004
Gold supply down in Peru by 6.3%:
Wednesday July 7, 2004
Barrick Gold production declined to 1.28 million ounces in the second quarter from 1.47 million ounces a year earlier
Tuesday August 24, 2004
Australian gold output falls 16% in June qtr compared to June qtr 2003
Monday September 13, 2004
Gold miner Cambior Inc. (CBJ.TO: Quote, Profile, Research) on Monday said it expects gold production will decrease over the next four years
Thursday December 09, 2004SA's gold production down Johannesburg - South Africa produced 85.7 tons of gold in the third quarter of 2004, the Chamber of Mines said on Thursday.
END.
Producer dehedging
Producer dehedging is another factor which contributes to a decline of available mine supply. Producers turned to net de-hedgers last year and will continue at the rate of 300-400 tonnes a year. Although many analysts argued that producers would be stepping up their hedging activities again because of the rise in POG, exactly the opposite happened. Gold companies only increased the speed of de-hedging and thereby reducing the net supply even further.
Hedging died when the King of Hedgers Barrick Gold gave up their favorite Hedging game. They announced last year to stop Hedging and said that they won't do it no more for the next ten years.
Barrick Gold terminates it's Hedging program
LONDON - In what had every appearance of being a damage limitation exercise, Peter Munk, chairman of Barrick Gold, made an unscheduled return to the Gold Investment Summit here to announce his company had given up hedging - and would do no more for the next ten years. END.
Would do no more for the next ten years, maybe they're bullish on Gold ?
The table shown below says it all, mine supply is going down, de-hedging is picking up steam . Total supply ytd 2004 compared to ytd 2003 is already down 15%.
source : World Gold Council
It should be obvious that no matter what the Gold price does in short term, Gold production is going down coming years thereby adding pressure on a tight physical Gold Market.
Note : Readers interested in the entire Gold drivers 2005 report (8 Chapters) can drop a mail. I'll send the report in PDF format (all finished chapters) ASAP.
Eric Hommelberg
ehommelberg@planet.nl
December 20, 2004
Ninja and West, I agree with both of you, this is conservative. However, they may not meet production goals, or prices could devalue, highly unlikely IMO. I believe they can process gold for under $350 per oz. I also think they can sell it for more than $525 per ounce. In trying to account for any expenses I may have missed, I have rounded up on all expenses and rounded down on all income. I do feel this represents a good basis from which to value this stock. If either of you want a better view of my sheet, give me an email and I'll send it to you.
Airdale1
Swanky, on valuation of AURC I have spreadsheet in continued updating. This is all my very humble opinion and is very open to critique:
Current Share Structure Thanks to Rigatoni Updated 1/27/06
Authorized 500,000,000
Outstanding 109,000,000
Restricted 91,000,000 One year restriction from Dec 2005
Cur Float 18,700,000
No preferred shares outstanding
Reserves as Stated by TOP AUDIT
Gold Spot Price 5,200,000 ozs $525.00 $2,730,000,000.00
Silver Spot Price 30,000,000 ozs $9.00 $270,000,000.00
Tin 65,400 Tons $6,000.00 $392,400,000.00
Lead 79,203 Tons $1,040.00 $82,371,120.00
Copper 17,730 Tons $4,240.00 $75,175,200.00
Zinc 336,965 Tons $1,860.00 $626,754,900.00
January 2006 Metals valuation $4,176,701,220.00
Production Value per ton
Value Value
Quantity Metal per OZ per LB
0.8 Ounces per ton Gold $525.00 $420.00
4.7 Ounces per ton Silver $9.00 $42.30
25 Pounds per ton of Tin $3.00 $75.00
128 Pounds per ton Lead $0.52 $66.56
7 Ibs per ton of Copper $2.13 $14.91
129 lbs per ton of Zinc $0.93 $119.97
Metal value per ton $738.74
Production Estimate per Year and Value
Value Value
Quantity Metal per OZ per LB Annual Value
384000 oz of Gold $525.00 $201,600,000.00
2256000 oz of Silver $9.00 $20,304,000.00
12000000 lbs of Tin $3.00
60000000 lbs of Lead $0.50
3360000 Ibs of Copper $2.13
92640000 lbs of Zinc $0.93
Annual Gross Income *$525 * 384000 $221,904,000.00
$9.00* 2256000
Annual Expense Estimate ?$380 384000 $145,920,000.00
$75,984,000.00
*Based on conversation with Mr. Parkin the sale
value of brick gold is slightly less than spot price
?Based on conversation with Mr. Parkin the cost
to produce 1 oz of gold is less than $400 per oz
Cost figure used is $380 per ounce
Annual Loan Service
$100,000,000.00 in financing for equipment Annual Expense $15,000,000.00
Based on conversation some have had with Mr.
Parkin, he plans to finance and not dilute the
existing share structure past the 110 million.
Estimated Annual Income at full production and Financing $60,984,000.00
Miscellaneous
480000 Tons to be processed annually
1600 Tons per day on a 300 day work year
Labor expense per man hrs per wk 50
wks per yr 52
Average per hour $4.00 Annual Income 2600 $10,400.00
Men required 500 $5,200,000.00
2002 Labor statistics yielded Russian Labor at 1/11th of US per capita income.
Basing this on a $20.00 per hour of US labor yields a rate of about $1.80 per hour
Round upt to 1/7th of US income ration yields the $3.00 per hour income. I used $4.00 per.
For competitive comparison, Mr. Parkin stated that labor costs are 25% below South Africa
the country with which all compete for sales.
Gold has been processed very profitably in the US at $400.00 per ounce since 2004, the estimate for income
is at least $150 per ton of ore. Note, this does not include any other metal income, simply income from Gold.
Per conversation with Mr. Parkin, Gold and silver are the only two metals being processed at
the site. I will ask if they have plans of subcontracting copper, zinc, lead etc producton.
Note: The $380.00 per ounce figure was based on US production with over 10 times greater earnings
per man. Also note lower yields per ton of Gold in the US mining ores.
Gold prices have few reasons to drop and many to rise, industiralization of Brazil, India, China, and East Europe,
increase of high end electronics will continue to place upward pressure on the baseline need for Gold.
Also, the DD done by Ninjaturtle, China's immediate goal to obtain 1900 tonnes short term will provide upward
presure on the price of AU.
VALUATION
Using the outstanding shares of 110,000,000 as a factor, the est income per share is at least 0.55
Using the available shares of 423,000,000 as a dilutive factor the income per share is .at least .15 per share.
Using the available shares of 500,000,000 as a dilutive factor the income per share is .at least .13 per share.
Using a PE of 10 AURC values at around $5.50 per share when financing is utilized
Using a PE of 10 AURC values at around $1.30 to $1.50 when full production is achieved.
http://www.infomine.com/investment/metalschart.asp
http://www.worldbank.org/annualreport/2002/box/table6_1.pdf#search='russian%20per%20capita%20income'....
Sample of a firm and it income going vertical as gold prices have risen
Compania de Minas Buenaventura SA (BVN)
View: Annual Data |
Quarterly Data
PERIOD ENDING 31-Dec-04 31-Dec-03
Total Revenue 336,828 241,189 31-Dec-02
Cost of Revenue 159,776 123,799 194,231
109,035
Gross Profit 177,052 117,390
Operating Expenses 85,195
Research Development - -
Selling General and Administrative 63,295 66,041 -
Non Recurring 2,901 1,328 43,832
Others 4,231 -257 2,118
Total Operating Expenses 70,427 67,111 -436
45,513
Operating Income or Loss 106,625 50,278
Income from Continuing Operations 39,682
Total Other Income/Expenses Net -30,179 -18,695
Earnings Before Interest And Taxes 409,886 2,728 -32,288
Interest Expense 2,288 2,459 -5,527
Income Before Tax 407,598 269 4,616
Income Tax Expense 31,135 -56,437 -10,143
Minority Interest -8,602 -14,428 -13,940
Net Income From Continuing Ops 209,769 71,134 -6,460
Non-recurring Events 10,257
Discontinued Operations - -
Extraordinary Items - - -
Effect Of Accounting Changes - -20,462 -
Other Items - - -
-
Net Income 209,769 50,673
Preferred Stock And Other Adjustments - - 10,257
-
Net Income Applicable To Common Shares $209,769 $50,673
$10,257
Mr. Parkin has stated Top-Audit approached him with the Zabaikalgeoprom deal. Here is an older article that describes the attitude of Russian firms and their desire to meld with American/Canadian and European IPO's. It has several errors in text, which would appear to be because of the Russian origin. It certainly confirms Mr. Parkins discussion with me.
All IMHO
WWW.bdo.ru/eng/press/marketnews/arch/?form
26.04.2004 International auditor chains to introduce russian shares to western stock exchanges
On April 23, political council of world's largest auditor chain BDO International was held in Moscow. A few days earlier, representatives of another leading chain RSM International visited Russia too. Both chains ate going to broaden their business in Russia offering assistance to Russian companies in organization of IPOs abroad. However, it is impossible to do this without attack on positions of the "big four."
BDO International and RSM International have the first and the second places in the world among the auditor chains (without taking into account of the "big four"). In 2003, their revenue amounted to about $3 billion and $2 billion respectively. In Russia they are represented by BDO Unicon and RSM Top-Audit companies.
BDO Unicon will be the first Russian company that has passed registration of the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), said Andrei Dubisnky, head of the company and member of the board of the international chain of auditor and consulting companies BDO International. According to Dubinsky, the board decided to provide assistance to BDO Unicon in obtaining of registration from the SEC.
Political council of BDO International, the supreme governing body of this chain, was held in Moscow on April 23. This is the first such case in the history of not only Russian market but also emerging markets in general. To date, meetings of the political council were held only in developed countries of Europe and North America. General Director of BDO International Frans Samyn comments, "Organization of the meeting of the political council in Moscow is primarily explained by success of Russian economy. Now BDO considers Russia as one of the key directions for business development."
Dubinsky said, "The political council focused our attention primarily on development of IPOs, evaluation of readiness of Russian companies to them and the need to prepare regional procedures and mechanisms for attraction of investments for Russian companies. It was also proposed to coordinate efforts with BDO in assistance to the companies that transit to international accounting standards. In general, the matter is about serving of interests of Russian companies on the key stock marketplaces, first of all, in the US and in Europe."
Two days before, top managers of competing company RSM International visited Moscow too. These were director of the European division of RSM David Maxwell and Vice President of American RSM McGladrey Pat Tabor. They organized a conference dedicated to the similar topic and entitled "IPO in the US - are Russian companies ready for it?" It turned out that, according to representatives of RSM, many companies wish such IPOs but are not ready for them. That is why RSM Top-Audit was tasked to do the necessary preparations.
Pat Tabor announced, "Russian companies have big potential and good opportunities to enter the stock market of the US. But after introduction of new rules for audit of financial statements for listing companies this entrance will be difficult for them. A new law appeared quite recently and obliged auditors to present separate conclusions about condition of internal audit of a public company. According to preliminary estimates, the novelty will double the costs of annual audit and will have a significant impact on the size of expenditures on preparation for IPO." Yelena Loss, head of RSM Top-Audit, said, "A few dozens of our clients are considering IPOs but only two or three of them are ready for this. We will prepare them and also attract new clients using capabilities of RSM."
According to polled experts, visits of managers of BDO and RSM to Moscow are not incidental. First, April is the best season for signing of new auditing contracts. Second, auditor chains of the so-called second echelon decided to make the series of auditing scandals in the US and Europe related to companies of the "big four" beneficial or themselves. For this purpose they decided to "cheer up" their representatives on the national markets including Russia. Now BDO Unicon and RSM Top-Audit are tasked to attack at positions of the "big four" that controls 70% of the market in Russia.
Representatives of the "big four" are not inclined to dramatize the events. Partner of Deloitte David Peerson said, "We do not consider strengthening of presence of companies of other international auditor chains on the Russian market to be a threat of loss of existing or future clients of the company. We compete successfully against these companies both on the Russian and on the international market."
Thanks Rigatoni for your DD on shares. Great stuff. With Westeffer's, Benz and other large share totals, the folks on this board can control share price somewhat.
FYI I have had an order in for 100 k today at .075. I have only filled half the order and yet a far better trader than myself has just purchased shares at .07. Games are afoot.
I really doubt we get a news release this week. He sounded very next week in our discussion. I do think within two weeks we hear something. His "partner" is currently in Russia dealing with the issues that will be involved in the release. He did ask me to call him in two weeks to discuss the companies situation, presumably post release.
I don't know if he is the same Parkin. I doubt it, he seems very busy with AURC on his plate.
He couldn't answer many of my questions with percentages or numbers for obvious reasons. He did say production costs were lower than $400 per ounce and sales were less than market rate. I figure it to be a wash since both are lower.
If you look at Buenaventura mining on Yahoo and research their income for 2002-3 you'll get some idea of income at $400 per ounce.
He couldn't tell me when equipment would be on site allowing the target production of 350,000 plus ounces per year. He did think my two year projection to achieve it, probably a bit long.
He appears to be a very thoughtful, rational fellow that takes time to answer questions accurately. He also seems very confident in the future of his and our company.
Based on a simple conversation, I feel comfortable with him at the helm. I also feel comfortable with the net figure of around $70 mil in income at full production. Now, the question is, how diluted will that figure be? This will be an interesting play.
In my humble opinion,
Airedale
Possibly this week late but more likely Mon or Tues of next week.
Airedale
Thanks Tree. One other thing. He asked me to call him back in two weeks. Love that Canuk accent.
Airedale
I just spent about 15 minutes on the phone with Mr. Parkin, Got the following information from him:
Share structure is as stated by Treepeople,
There are no preferred shares that exist,
His average buy in price for the company is almost 18 cents,
They are ignoring all the metals in the ore other than gold and silver,
Labor is indeed cheap 25% below South Africa, a major gold competitor,
Top Audit approached him with the deal,
They will be getting modern milling and refining equipment from Germany, it is readily available,
They mine sub-surface ores in the severe cold and more surface ore in the warmer months,
I told him I valued the base costs at $400 per ounce and anything above that as profit. Also mentioned that I felt $70,000,000.00 in net profits were probable and he said base costs were lower, said to do my math,
Asked about the ability to get current value for their gold, ie $550 per ounce. It will be slightly below market because they simply refine the gold to a brick state and let others do the super refining, shaping,
He has been an Attorney for many years but is doing this full time,
Asked about the news today that AURC is being shorted. He is not worried. (I thought scoffing could be heard)
He is a gentleman in my opinion.
I asked if there was anything he could tell me beyond the questions I had asked. His answer, sleep well at night. All in my humble opinion.
Airedale
Found this article very interesting....and good for AURC
Earth's Limited Supply of Metals Raises Concern LiveScience Staff
LiveScience.com
Fri Jan 20, 10:00 AM ET
If all nations were to use the same services enjoyed in developed nations, even the full extraction of metals from the Earth's crust and extensive recycling may not be enough to meet metal demands in the future, according to a new study.
To investigate the environmental and social consequences of metal depletion, researchers looked at metal stocks thought to exist in the Earth, metal in use by people today, and how much is lost in landfills.
Using copper stocks in North America as a starting point, the researchers tracked the evolution of copper mining, use and loss during the 20th century. They then combined this information with other data to estimate what the global demand for copper and other metals would be if all nations were fully developed and using modern technologies.
According to the study, all of the copper in ore, plus all of the copper currently in use, would be required to bring the world to the level of the developed nations for power transmission, construction and other services and products that depend on the metal.
The study, led by Thomas Graedel of Yale University, was detailed in the Jan. 17 issue of the journal for the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
For the entire globe, the researchers estimate that 26 percent of extractable copper in the Earth's crust is now lost in non-recycled wastes. For zinc, that number is 19 percent.
These metals are not at risk of immediate depletion, however, because supplies are still large enough to meet demands and mines have become more efficient at extracting these ores.
But scarce metals, such as platinum, face depletion risks this century because of the lack of suitable substitutes in such devices as catalytic converters and hydrogen fuel cells.
The researchers also found that for many metals, the average rate of usage per person continues to rise. As a result, the report says, even the more plentiful metals may face similar depletion risks in the future.
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Establishing a share value for AURC is an ongoing work. I have done research and placed the data in an Excel spreadsheet. It does not translate to this message board well but here it is. My estimate upon full activation of the mines and all 500,000,000 shares showing as outstanding is $1.30 to $1.50 per share.
Current Share Structure
Authorized 500,000,000
Outstanding 103,000,000
Restricted 80,000,000 Two year restriction from Dec 2005
Cur Float 23,000,000
Dilution Max 423,000,000
Reserves as Stated by TOP AUDIT
Gold 5,200,000 ozs $550.00 $2,860,000,000.00
Silver 30,000,000 ozs $9.00 $270,000,000.00
Tin 65,400 Tons $6,000.00 $392,400,000.00
Lead 79,203 Tons $1,040.00 $82,371,120.00
Copper 17,730 Tons $4,240.00 $75,175,200.00
Zinc 336,965 Tons $1,860.00 $626,754,900.00
January 2006 Metals valuation $4,306,701,220.00
Production Estimates per ton
Value Value
Quantity Metal per OZ per LB
0.8 Ounces per ton Gold $550.00 $440.00
4.7 Ounces per ton Silver $9.00 $42.30
25 Pounds per ton of Tin $3.00 $75.00
128 Pounds per ton Lead $0.52 $66.56
7 Ibs per ton of Copper $2.13 $14.91
129 lbs per ton of Zinc $0.93 $119.97
Metal value per ton $758.74
Production Estimate per Year
Value Value
Quantity Metal per OZ per LB Annual Value
384000 oz of Gold $550.00 $211,200,000.00
2256000 oz of Silver $9.00 $20,304,000.00
12000000 lbs of Tin $3.00 $36,000,000.00
60000000 lbs of Lead $0.50 $30,000,000.00
3360000 Ibs of Copper $2.13 $7,156,800.00
92640000 lbs of Zinc $0.93 $86,155,200.00
$390,816,000.00
Miscellaneous
480000 Tons to be processed annually
1600 Tons per day on a 300 day work year
Labor expense per man hrs per wk 50
wks per yr 52
Average per hour $4.00 Annual Income 2600 $10,400.00
Men required 500 $5,200,000.00
2002 Labor statistics yielded Russian Labor at 1/11th of US per capita income. Based on a $20.00 per hour US labor
rate and a 1/7th of US income ration yields the $3.00 per hour income. Rounding up to $4.00 per hour.
Based on the fact Gold has been processed profitably in the US at $400.00 per ounce since 2004, the estimate for income
is at least $150 per ton of ore. Note, this does not include any other metal income, simply income from Gold.
Based on 480,000 tons processed annually that equals $72,000,000 in annual net income.
Note: The $400.00 per ounce profitable figure was based on US production with over 10 times greater earnings
per man. Also note lower yields per ton of Gold in the US mining ores. This should serve as a conservative estimate.
Gold prices have no reason to drop and many to rise. The industiralization of Brazil, India, China, and Eastern Europe
as well as the increase of high end electronics will continue to place upward pressure on the baseline need for Gold.
Using the available shares of 423,000,000 as a dilutive factor the income per share is .at least .15 per share.
Using the available shares of 500,000,000 as a dilutive factor the income per share is .at least .13 per share.
Using a PE of 10 AURC values at around $1.30 to $1.50 when full production is achieved.
http://www.infomine.com/investment/metalschart.asp
http://www.worldbank.org/annualreport/2002/box/table6_1.pdf#search='russian%20per%20capita%20income'...
Sample of a firm and it income going vertical as gold prices have risen
Compania de Minas Buenaventura SA (BVN)
View: Annual Data |
Quarterly Data
PERIOD ENDING 31-Dec-04 31-Dec-03 31-Dec-02
Total Revenue 336,828 241,189 194,231
Cost of Revenue 159,776 123,799 109,035
Gross Profit 177,052 117,390 85,195
Operating Expenses
Research Development - - -
Selling General and Administrative 63,295 66,041 43,832
Non Recurring 2,901 1,328 2,118
Others 4,231 -257 -436
Total Operating Expenses 70,427 67,111 45,513
Operating Income or Loss 106,625 50,278 39,682
Income from Continuing Operations
Total Other Income/Expenses Net -30,179 -18,695 -32,288
Earnings Before Interest And Taxes 409,886 2,728 -5,527
Interest Expense 2,288 2,459 4,616
Income Before Tax 407,598 269 -10,143
Income Tax Expense 31,135 -56,437 -13,940
Minority Interest -8,602 -14,428 -6,460
Net Income From Continuing Ops 209,769 71,134 10,257
Non-recurring Events
Discontinued Operations - - -
Extraordinary Items - - -
Effect Of Accounting Changes - -20,462 -
Other Items - - -
Net Income 209,769 50,673 10,257
Preferred Stock And Other Adjustments - - -
Net Income Applicable To Common Shares $209,769 $50,673 $10,257
LOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLISSIMO
Looks like well placed figures in the world of high end art are getting HOTMAIL accounts. With their annual savings they can acquire a verrry nice velvet Elvis for the sitting room. Bwaaahhhaaaaa.