Latest AURC valuation based on $570 per ounce gold price, silver at $9.89 and an Eric Hommelberg article on cost of gold production placing it around $350 per ounce. The Hommelberg article also quotes Newmont CEO Pierre Lassonde saying add $7.50 per ounce for every 100 tons taken out of the market. China is looking at a minimum of 600 tons short term and 3000 long. Gold production has peaked and is declining in a market of increasing needs. Some experts see gold at over $1000 per ounce in 4 to 5 years. I have links below for you to check my info and I welcome any critique on my valuation.
I have held this stock from under .03 and based on what we hear from Gerald Parkin in the next few releases, I am holding into late 06 at a minimum. In all seriousness, based on current OS and production goals, and current gold prices, this stock is worth $5.00 per share. Using the dilution of all 500 million shares and projected capacity it is $1.73, all based on a PE of 10. Now, we wait for the man I may call "My President" Mr. Parkin. This could be the stock of a lifetime.
All IMHO
Airdale
Current Share Structure UPDATED 1/31/06
Authorized 500,000,000
Outstanding 109,700,000 Thanks to Rigatoni
Restricted 91,000,000 One year restrict from Dec 2005
Cur Float 18,700,000
No preferred shares outstanding
Reserves as Stated by TOP AUDIT
AU less 5% on spot 5,200,000 ozs $550.00 $2.86 Billion
AG less 5% on spot 30,000,000 ozs $9.50 $285 million $
Tin 65,400 Tons
Lead 79,203 Tons
Copper 17,730 Tons
Zinc 336,965 Tons
January 2006 Metals valuation $3,145,000,000.00
Production Value per ton
Value Value Total Value
Quantity Metal per oz per LB per ton
0.8 Ounces per ton AU $550.00 $440.00
4.7 Ounces per ton AG $9.50 $44.65
25 Pounds per ton of Tin
128 Pounds per ton Lead
7 Ibs per ton of Copper
129 lbs per ton of Zinc
Metal value per ton of processed ore $484.65
Production Estimate per Year and Value
Value Value
Quantity Metal per OZ per LB Annual Value
384000 oz of Gold $550.00 $211,200,000.00
2256000 oz of Silver $9.50 $21,432,000.00
12000000 lbs of Tin $3.00
60000000 lbs of Lead $0.50
3360000 lbs of Copper $2.13
92640000 lbs of Zinc $0.93
Value
Annual Income Expense Est. Val. Per oz. Annual Prod Annual Value
Annual Gross Inc * $550.00 384000 $232,632,000.00
? $9.50 2256000
Annual Expense Estimate $350.00 384000 $145,920,000.00
Gross Income $86,712,000.00
*Based on conversation with Mr. Parkin the sale
value of brick gold is slightly less than spot price
?Based on conversation with Mr. Parkin the cost
to produce 1 oz of gold is less than $400 per oz
Cost figure to produce an ounce of gold is $350.00
Annual Loan Service
$100,000,000.00 in financing for equipment Annual Expense $15,000,000.00
Based on conversation some have had with Mr.
Parkin, he plans to finance and not dilute the
existing share structure past the 110 million.
Estimated Annual Income at full production and Financing $71,712,000.00
SHARE VALUATION
Outstanding Aurc Value
Shares Annual Income Income Per Share at a PE of 10
Current + Finance 109,700,000 $71,712,000.00 $0.55 $5.45
OS of 200,000,000 $86,712,000.00 $0.43 $4.34
OS of 300,000,000 $86,712,000.00 $0.29 $2.89
OS of 400,000,000 $86,712,000.00 $0.22 $2.17
Current A/S 500,000,000 $86,712,000.00 $0.17 $1.73
% of full valuation at cur. price $0.194 $5.45 3.6%
$4.34 4.5%
$2.89 6.7%
$2.17 8.9%
$1.73 11.2%
Miscellaneous
480000 Tons of oar to be processed annually
1600 Tons processed per day on a 300 day work year
Labor expense per man hrs per wk 50
wks per yr 52
Average per hour $4.00 Annual Income 2600 $10,400.00
Men required 500 $5,200,000.00
~2002 Labor statistics yielded Russian Labor at 1/11th of US per capita income.
~Basing this on a $20.00 per hour of US labor yields a rate of about $1.80 per hour
Round upt to 1/7th of US income ration yields the $3.00 per hour income. I used $4.00 per.
For competitive comparison, Mr. Parkin stated that labor costs are 25% below South Africa
the country with which all compete for sales.
~Gold has been processed very profitably in the US at $400.00 per ounce since 2004, the estimate
for income is at least $250 per ton of ore. This does not include any other metal income, just AU.
~Per conversation with Mr. Parkin, Gold and silver are the only two metals being processed at
the site. I will ask if they have plans of subcontracting copper, zinc, lead etc producton.
~Projected cost to produce an ounce of gold is $350.
"Exploration programs weren't profitable below $350 per ounce from 1997-2002". Eric Hommelberg*
Note: The $350.00 per ounce figure was based on US production with over 10 times greater earnings
per man. Also note lower yields per ton of Gold in the US mining ores.
~Gold prices will like oil continue to rise, industiralization of Brazil, India, China, and East Europe,
increase of high end electronics will continue to place upward pressure on the baseline need for Gold.
~Gold production has peaked and is dropping despite an increased demand*****
~Also China's immediate goal to obtain 600-1900 tonnes short term and 3000 tons long term will put
upward presure on the price of AU. "According to
you can add $7.5 dollars to the price of Gold for every 100 tons taken out of the market".*****
Using 600 tons as the short term goal, this fixes the upward price at $45 per ounce.
This article was published on December 27, 2005 when gold was at $540.
Many experts are predicting $1000 an ounce in the next four to five years.
http://goldprice.org/news/2005/12/chinas-gold-reserve.html China gold buys
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_04/hommelberg122004.html Quoted article*****
http://www.infomine.com/investment/metalschart.asp Spot metal prices
http://www.worldbank.org/annualreport/2002/box/table6_1.pdf#search='russian%20per%20capita%20income'....
Per capita inc.
http://www.kitco.com/market/ Current metal pr.
This post is an opinion and should not be considered reason to buy or sell any security, or to besmirch, belittle or berate any person, religion, cult, creed, race, sex, political party, company or company representative of any age or appearance.
AI
