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Amen.
I'm not on this board to argue, more like looking for balanced, rational understanding about price targets and investing horizons for Amarin.
So far, I haven't seen much to change my target of mid-30s by end 2019, with a long-term investment expectation. I don't think anyone will offer a good price in 2019, just because of the sheer size of the market cap today. If an offer is made, it would most likely fall far short of the price targets bandied about on here.
Thoughts?
I swear if Julian Baker himself posted on iHub he would get shouted at.
JB: Hey what's up? We own 40M shares of Amarin, how's everyone doing?
Poster A: Liar! If you really owned 40M shares you would have posted before Sept 2018. You're a FUDSTER.
Poster B: Where's your medical degree? I hate all of you suits - no vision.
That's fair enough - I'm also on the fence on any price increase (as in my investment timeline is long enough that I don't care either way). My point is that $100 price target is (IMHO) only able of being reached based on fundamentals in the next 24 months by a price increase, buyout speculation notwithstanding.
Although IF the AHA announcement is as amazing as some are predicting, any minor price increase (say 10-20%) really shouldn't be material enough to make a difference - an increase of 20% only gets the $2400/yr cost to about $2800/yr, or a hike of $1 per day.
There is a way.
Raise the prices of Vascepa.
Assuming AMRN can sell $1B of Vascepa in 2019, and can double the supply to sell $2B of Vascepa in 2020...
50% price increase:
Revenue of $3B in 2020, 10X price/sales = $30B valuation.
100% price increase:
Revenue o f $4B in 2020, 10X price/sales = $40B valuation.
There's your $100/share valuation right there.
IMO, stock price is not going to move very much from the AHA announcement alone (short of astounding results or lots of press that drives retail buyers in droves).
This drug may well be a cardiologists dream but the market is more oriented around profits and potential. We may see a small jump but the medical stuff is probably going to fly over the IBs guys heads.
Shorter term large spikes in share price will mainly be driven (IMO of course) by a few things:
1. BO offer (if any)
2. Major investor taking a larger stake (say Berkshire buying a stake or Baker Bros increasing their holdings to 30%) to show confidence.
3. Partnership with a big name (doesn't even have to be BP, could be something like CVS taking a 5% stake etc).
4. EU announcement.
BaaBaa,
I don't know if there was some miscommunication, but we are actually agreeing.
BaaBaa:
https://investor.amarincorp.com/static-files/47966c17-9293-49f8-8b0e-7985ba0f1793
"- Current capacity to support >$500M in revenue; capacity to expand in 2019 to support >$1B"
AMRN has plans to expand supply to support $1B in revenue in 2019. Even assuming that is accelerated (supply expanded to support say $1.25B or even $1.5B) that probably will not see a very significant valuation increase in PPS.
However assuming a 50% price increase then assuming a 1:1 sales growth (assuming demand stays strong), then AMRN could see $3B in revenue with a >80% margin, that would support a much higher PPS. Failing that, I do not believe we will see a high double digit PPS next year ($70+), barring an astronomical increase in scripts and demand. We may need to wait a year or three.
Buyout / No buyout speculation:
The last few days have seen lots of speculation and frankly pretty wild theories floating on the board re: a BO offer, if/when it will occur, should it be accepted, the possible price, etc.
Any BO offer (at least the first offer) will not be at a crazy premium to average PPS. Any speculation that if AMRN is $35-40 Nov 12th a BO offer of $100 will come in is daydreaming.
Even if the true value of AMRN is >$100, no buyer is going to pay such a premium over what the market value is, and even if any BP CEO was crazy enough, his BOD would remove him.
The only way you would see a 100+% premium over PPS is if there was a bidding war, and it was largely public. Some smallcap pharmas may get large (80-200%) premiums but those are mostly sub $1B smaller deals. At current market cap of $5.5B ($13B if PPS reaches $35), for AMRN to get a 1-200% premium would be a quite unprecedented.
GIA:
While AMRN could theoretically be worth >$100 and >$30B based on market potential, the true value could take a long time to be priced into the stock. There are hundreds of counters where the valuation is depressed, sometimes for years - some companies even trade below book value based on outlook/sentiment alone.
While the drug could technically "sell itself" if the results are good, a lot of hard work will still need to be done by the company to hire / train / deploy reps, manage supply growth (2019 supply for $1B of revenue is a good start but remains to be seen if they can grow that exponentially for 2020).
Logistics is also more than just merely securing supply - you actually have to get the product to pharmacies nationwide / globally, and on a consistent basis. Even with overwhelming demand, this could be a challenge and I conservatively predict the market will want to see scripts take off like a rocket ship before pricing in the growth.
In the short term, if AMRN does GIA, the most likely way to significantly raise the PPS would be to hike the price of Vascepa (which is why you heard a number of analysts already ask about that numerous times on the conference calls).
Nothing in my experience makes you get religion faster then an Interventionist Cardiologist leaning over you on the Cath table and saying ..." If we can't fix this ...we'll be sending you down for surgery "
Many /most in R-IT will have been thru this experience .
Not saying it changes everyone.
Those addicted to smoking have a very hard time .
But those Burgers and Hot dogs guys I know who have been thru the Cath Lab ...suddenly find Salmon is fun to grill after all .....plus they're walking more and loosing weight.
Just my experience
BB if we get Anchor, and patents hold, it gets to $5-$6 maybe more
Hi Epe,
I've actually been checking this board on and off for the last year.
Bought in (only a little) before the Adcomm to ride the run up and sell before the binary event. Got screwed in the briefing doc debacle, thought, what the hell, I'm a let it ride 'cos the Adcom's gotta be a sure thing, right? Right?!? Well, as we all know now, we got double screwed in the rear no thanks to Hiatt and Parks during that fiasco.
So down about 60% on my investment, and not willing to sell, I just let AMRN ride for a bit. Thought about selling and taking the tax loss, but nah. Kept it to remind myself of the failure of not cutting losses.
Started re-looking the investment round about end Q1 2014 after I started to side with the conspiracy crowd (cheers BB!) and bought on dips.
AMRN is now my largest holding from a volume perspective (no of shares, although AAPL and Valeant eclipse it in value).
I bought 2000 shares to ride during the Adcomm, I now have more than 20 times that amount.
Come on BB.
We can't be bought out for a high PPS at this level.
The AZN board would hang the CEO if he offered even $8 for a stock that is trading under $2.
Look at it this way, if you knew absolutely nothing about AMRN or Vascepa potential (which is what the BP Boards know, probably not much), what would you think was a fair price for a BO? Probably 150% over closing price tops.
Think the bidding will start at about $3.
I hope and pray it doesn't gap up.... yet.
I'm backing up the truck, pounding the table, whatever the hell you wanna call it, I'm buying with both hands on this volume.
It's been steadily rising now, over 30% within a couple of weeks and the trend would probably take us to a minimum of $2.20 even without gaps up.
Just bought another 5000 shares over the last two days, lowering my average to $1.75, and waiting for another $20k of funds to clear, even if it raises my average price slightly, I'm a buyer under $2.
I agree with Biobil though, even if I think the PPS and timeline are unrealistic.
Well then those PM's you spoke to should note that SAC purchased not 300k but 600k shares. Renaissance were the ones with 300k and that was almost 2 months ago - anything could have happened in that time.
What about Camber with 11m and Abingworth with 8m?
the most important fact that
the Board is missing is the rational of
share purchases by Funds, SAC etc. Funds
look at the share price and for them it
is really like buying Calls with no time
erosion. If the funds would be purchasing
Millions of shares , that would be of greater
significance. Buying 384,000 shares is chump
change to large funds.
Also bear in mind Renaissance's holdings are all dated over 1 mth ago.
So who's to say their current holdings are "small"?
I for one, would be willing to bet that they hold far more than $304k worth of stock today. Anyone willing to take me up on that bet?
Renaissance Technologies (Hamburg's husband's fund) just bought into AMRN.
http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/amrn/institutional-holdings/new
RENAISSANCE TECHNOLOGIES LLC 06/30/2014 184,200 184,200 New
184,200 shares. Probably bought at a max price of $1.70.
I'm pretty sure this will interest Biobill.
If SPA gets reinstated, that's a heckuva sweet couple hundred grand in profit over a short period.
Edit: Also, who's to say they haven't bought more since July?
I think this could be big. As in, BIG.
What I do know about AMRN and shorts:
Some brokers are offering share loan rates of up to 50% on AMRN.
Make your own conclusions as to whether the brokers think this one is good to short (or otherwise)....
How about the fact that the FDA has twice delayed issuing a final decision when according to your version of the facts, it should be a slam dunk denial case?
How about the fact that the shorts are running scared and covering, while brokers are severely limiting borrowing shares to short, when it should be a slam dunk double bagger according to your version of the facts?
How's that for some facts?
So go on then, short this puppy, big time. Heck, take out another mortgage on your home to short AMRN. It's free money (according to you), right?
IF you can find some shares to borrow lol!
Someone made big money.
Reminds me very clearly of the massive put purchase on the day the Adcomm briefing docs came out.
Huge suspicion of a "leak" here....
Pretty sure the answer lies in the 7th and 8th words of that description:
"Government Affairs"
Dear senator, we have a situation where we believe the FDA is acting contrary to the interests of the people of the United States...
LOL....you're dreaming if you think it'll hit $1.
The bad news is fully priced in at this point for the PDUFA. It may still drop 10% - 20% or so, but 50%? You're dreaming.
I don't recommend spamming Facebook with countless initiatives especially to Congressmen who are probably way too uneducated (scientifically wise) to understand.
It may be counterproductive and start to turn annoying.
Maybe, we should be targeting specific individuals (reporters) who have some incentive to be investigating a case like this?
The WSJ example works well. Perhaps someone blogosphere folks? The Verge, perhaps? Or the HuffPo writers?